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2024
Working Paper

Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Perception; Government Administration

December 1999 (Revised January 2003)
Case

Standard International Inc. (A)

By: David F. Hawkins

The company top management must make a series of accounting decisions that will determine the company's quarterly income. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Inflation and Deflation; International Finance; Research and Development; Accounting Industry

Find at Harvard

October 1993 (Revised January 1994)
Supplement

Japan (A), Supplement

By: Bruce R. Scott

In an economy marked by severe inflation, a balance of payments problem, and large investment needs for modernization, the Minister of Finance has been asked to design a remedial program that cannot include borrowing abroad. He does so, and the case describes the... View Details

Keywords: Design; Developing Countries and Economies; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; Policy; Outcome or Result; Problems and Challenges; Programs

January 2004 (Revised August 2004)
Supplement

Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (B)

By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton

In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Financial Instruments; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Markets; Government and Politics; Financial Institutions; Innovation and Invention; United States

September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
Case

The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White

After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details

2009
Other Unpublished Work

Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises

By: David Moss and Cole Bolton

In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Central Banking; Interest Rates; International Finance; Policy; Crisis Management; Europe

2025
Working Paper

Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data

By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta

We introduce a novel methodology for detecting inflation turning points that combines high-frequency, disaggregated price data with standard structural break techniques to provide policymakers with more precise and timely signals of inflation dynamics. The methodology... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price

June 2013 (Revised June 2013)
Teaching Note

Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth & Currency Wars

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details

January 1998 (Revised June 1999)
Case

German Hyperinflation of 1923, The

By: David A. Moss and Julio J. Rotemberg

Presents a compilation of primary and secondary sources as well as a set of data exhibits on the German hyperinflation of 1923. The hyperinflation represented a defining moment in German history and certainly one of the two or three most important economic events of... View Details

Keywords: History; Price; Production; Money; Inflation and Deflation; Policy; Economy; Government and Politics; Germany

March 2008 (Revised July 2009)
Case

U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Policy Reactions (A)

By: Laura Alfaro and Renee Kim

By March 2008, the U.S. Government and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board had taken various policy measures over the last few months to tackle the subprime mortgage crisis that threatened to drag the economy into a recession. The Bush administration approved a fiscal... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Central Banking; Mortgages; Policy; Business and Government Relations; United States

November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
Case

Science Technology Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry

May 2004 (Revised November 2005)
Case

Turkey: Securing Stability in a Rough Neighborhood

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Emily Thompson

After suffering years of volatility and crises, Turkey desperately sought macroeconomic and political stability in an ever-worsening region of the world. In the short term, Turkey had to repay its debt, which amounted to more than 80% of GDP. By January 2004, Turkey... View Details

Keywords: Public Sector; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Banks and Banking; International Finance; Privatization; Religion; Turkey; European Union

08 Aug 2016
Lessons from the Classroom

Panic Management: Keep Your Eyes on the Road

counterproductive response in many of us: “If the car is spinning out of control, it grips our jugular of emotion and makes this negative feeling course through our veins. We feel deflated and victimized,” he said. “We look in the mirror... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

March 2009 (Revised May 2013)
Supplement

Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (B)

By: Laura Alfaro and Akiko Kanno

Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, faced a complex situation in the fall of 2007. An economic recovery had allowed the central bank to abandon its zero interest rate policy, which had been in place for years, and raise rates to 0.5%. The Bank of Japan was... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Central Banking; Interest Rates; Policy; Japan

January 1989 (Revised July 1991)
Case

Bank for International Development, Software Case

By: W. Carl Kester and Timothy A. Luehrman

A hypothetical case in which an assistant treasurer of a supranational bank is asked to determine in which currencies it has been cheaper ex post to borrow. An integral part of the case is a Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet containing monthly data on yen and dollar interest... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Interest Rates; International Finance; Relationships; Currency; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Inflation and Deflation

2005
Working Paper

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods

2008
Working Paper

Behavioral Aspects of Price Setting, and Their Policy Implications

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

This paper starts by discussing consumers' cognitive and emotional reaction to posted prices. Cognitively, some consumers do not appear to make effective use of price information to maximize their consumption-based utility. Emotionally, prices can induce regret and... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Price; Policy; Laws and Statutes; Consumer Behavior; Emotions

02 Jul 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets

Keywords: by Alberto Cavallo

March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
Case

Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?

By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner

Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question? View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Asset Management; Investment; Price Bubble; Policy; Risk Management

January 1997 (Revised March 1997)
Case

Crisis at the Federal Reserve: Arthur Burns and the Stagflation of 1973-75

By: David A. Moss and Wyatt C. Wells

Briefly examines the history of the Federal Reserve System up through 1970 and then delves into how the central bank, under the leadership of Arthur F. Burns, responded to the "stagflation" of the early 1970s. It culminates with the Federal Reserve's response to the... View Details

Keywords: Central Banking; Inflation and Deflation; Government Administration; Financial Crisis; United States

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