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2024
Working Paper

Who Values Democracy?

This paper tests the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation

2024
Working Paper

Valuing Stocks With Earnings

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Stocks; Behavioral Finance; Accounting

07 Jul 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Predictable Financial Crises

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

April 2005
Case

The University of Chicago Investment Office: Investing in Timber

In 2005, the University of Chicago Investment office was deciding how much capital to allocate toward timber investing. Explores the challenges associated with optimal portfolio construction when one of the invested assets is illiquid with limited historical price... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financial Services Industry; Education Industry

Research Summary

Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing and Liquidity (with Ronnie Sadka)

We document a close link between mispricing and liquidity by investigating stocks with high analyst disagreement. Previous research finds that these stocks tend to be overpriced, but prices correct down as uncertainty about earnings is resolved. We conjecture that one... View Details

Article

Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Investment Return; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Volatility; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance

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Research Summary

Overview

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

In his research, Professor Siriwardane seeks to develop a quantitative understanding of how the financial sector affects asset prices and macroeconomic stability, particularly relevant in the wake of the financial crisis of the last decade. View Details

March 1989 (Revised April 1998)
Case

Marriott Corporation: The Cost of Capital (Abridged)

By: Richard S. Ruback

Gives students the opportunity to explore how a company uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to compute the cost of capital for each of its divisions. The use of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula and the mechanics of applying it are stressed. View Details

Keywords: Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods

2024
Working Paper

The Rise of Alternatives

By: Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang and Emil Siriwardane

Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty

September 2021
Article

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

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August 2018
Article

Extrapolation and Bubbles

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

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2023
Working Paper

Uniform Rate Setting and the Deposit Channel

By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford

U.S. banks predominantly use uniform deposit rate setting policies, particularly the largest banks. Uniform rate setting ignores local market concentration, and is therefore inconsistent with the identification strategy used to provide cross-sectional evidence of the... View Details

Keywords: Banks and Banking; Financial Markets; Interest Rates; Banking Industry

2018
Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

2023
Working Paper

The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom

By: Philippe van der Beck and Coralie Jaunin

This paper quantifies the impact of Robinhood traders on the US equity market. Within a structural model, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand... View Details

Keywords: Institutional Investing; Financial Markets; Price; Financial Instruments

May 2012
Article

Global, Local, and Contagious Investor Sentiment

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeffrey Wurgler and Yu Yuan

We construct investor sentiment indices for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indices. In a validation test, we find that relative sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies. Global sentiment is a... View Details

Keywords: Business and Shareholder Relations; Globalization; Stocks; Markets; Capital; Financial Services Industry

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April 2022
Article

Predictable Financial Crises

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

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2009
Case

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital (TN): Brief Case.

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

Finance, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), Capital Structure, Risk Assessment, Corporate Finance, Cash Flow, Valuation, Beta, North America, Energy, Oil and Gas, Cost of Capital, Cost of Equity, Discount Rate, Risk Premium,... View Details

Keywords: Capital Budgeting; Cost of Capital; Energy Industry

2020
Working Paper

Internal Models, Make Believe Prices, and Bond Market Cornering

By: Ishita Sen and Varun Sharma

Exploiting position-level heterogeneity in regulatory incentives to misreport and novel data on regulators, we document that U.S. life insurers inflate the values of corporate bonds using internal models. We estimate an additional $9-$18 billion decline in regulatory... View Details

Keywords: Life Insurers; Capital Regulation; Internal Models; Corporate Bonds; Regulatory Supervision; Concentrated Ownership; Bonds; Capital; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Insurance; Investment Portfolio

Article

Market Integration in Developed and Emerging Markets: Evidence from the CAPM

By: Robert Bruner, Wei Li, Mark Kritzman, Simon Myrgren and Sebastien Page

Beta, as measured by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), is widely used for pricing stocks, determining the cost of capital, and gauging the extent to which markets are integrated. The CAPM model assumes that equilibrium conditions prevail. The choice of which... View Details

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2009
Case

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital: Brief Case No. 4129.

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

The senior vice president of project finance for a global oil and gas company must determine the weighted average cost of capital for the company as a whole and each of its divisions as part of the annual capital budgeting process. The case uses comparable companies to... View Details

Keywords: Capital Budgeting; Cost of Capital; Energy Industry

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