Cash Flow Analysis - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2010
Case

Groupe Ariel, S.A.: Parity Conditions and Cross-Border Valuation: Brief Case.

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and James Quinn

Groupe Ariel evaluates a proposal from its Mexican subsidiary to purchase and install cost-saving equipment at a manufacturing facility in Monterrey. The improvements will allow the plant to automate recycling and remanufacturing of toner and printer cartridges, an... View Details

Keywords: Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Valuation; Business Subsidiaries; Policy; Cash Flow; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; International Finance; Problems and Challenges; Production; Currency; Manufacturing Industry; Mexico

December 1997
Case

Fixed Income Valuation

By: W. Carl Kester

A collection of problems that introduces students to the use of discounted cash flow analysis in the valuation of fixed income securities. Students are required to estimate bond prices and yields to maturity, among other items. View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Cash Flow; Bonds

April 2012
Case

Bayonne Packaging, Inc.

By: Roy D. Shapiro and Paul E. Morrison

A printer and paper converter produces customized packaging used by industrial customers to deliver promotional materials, software, luxury beverages, and gift food and candy. The company specializes in creating innovative packaging solutions for its customers and... View Details

Keywords: Production Controls; Manufacturing; Capacity Analysis; Quality Control; Performance Management; Process Analysis; Quality; Production; Performance Productivity; Performance Capacity; Business Processes; Manufacturing Industry

November 2011 (Revised December 2013)
Case

The Long and Short of Apollo Group and the University of Phoenix (A)

By: Luis M. Viceira, Joel Heilprin, Andrew S. Holmes and Damian M. Zajac

A hedge fund is deciding whether to liquidate its position in Apollo Group, a for-profit education firm, in light of significant political and macro-economic uncertainty facing the industry. As part of the investment analysis a complete discounted cash flow analysis... View Details

Keywords: Higher Education; Internet and the Web; Education Industry; Technology Industry

December 2017
Supplement

Bega Cheese: Bidding to Bring Vegemite Back Home

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Lauren G. Pickle

In January 2017, the leadership team of Bega Cheese—the Australian dairy company—was considering a bid for Mondelēz International’s Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) grocery business which included several leading consumer brands (Vegemite—the iconic Australian spread,... View Details

January 2018 (Revised April 2021)
Case

Capital Allocation at HCA

By: W. Carl Kester and Emily R. McComb

In early 2017, HCA Holdings, an investor-owned hospital management company, faced a strategically important capital allocation decision. After the exit of its private equity sponsors in 2016, HCA had to determine how best to allocate its substantial annual free cash... View Details

Keywords: Capital Allocation; Cash Distribution Policy; Dividends; Share Repurchases; Growth Strategy And Execution; Growth Investing; Capital Expenditures; Debt Management; Debt Reduction; Debt Policy; Hospital Management; Investor-owned Hospital Chains; Capital Budgeting; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Corporate Finance; Decision Choices and Conditions; Health Industry; United States

December 2017 (Revised January 2018)
Teaching Note

Bega Cheese: Bidding to Bring Vegemite Back Home

By: Benjamin C. Esty, Lauren G. Pickle and Greg Saldutte

In January 2017, the leadership team of Bega Cheese—the Australian dairy company—was considering a bid for Mondelēz International’s Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) grocery business which included several leading consumer brands such as Vegemite, the iconic Australian... View Details

July 2001
Technical Note

Technical Note on LBO Valuation (A): LBO Structure and the Target IRR Method of Valuation

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Explains the equity cash flow method of valuation as it applies to leveraged buyouts. Also explains: 1) earnings and cash flow forecasts, 2) debt structure and the cash sweep, 3) the cashing out horizon and terminal valuation, and 4) the target IRR method of valuation. View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Leveraged Buyouts; Capital Budgeting; Borrowing and Debt; Cash Flow; Equity; Profit; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

June 1990 (Revised January 1993)
Case

Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)

By: Thomas R. Piper

Provides an opportunity to evaluate an investment in a new product line in strategic, competitive, organizational, and economic terms. The economic analysis involves an estimation of the relevant cash flows and discounting them at an appropriate hurdle rate. View Details

Keywords: Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Capital Budgeting

April 1999 (Revised September 2001)
Case

Penelope's Personal Pocket Phones

By: Paul A. Gompers

Provides students with an opportunity to use simple real options analysis to value a startup. Penelope Phillips is deciding whether to start a company to make wireless phones. Students get experience using traditional discounted cash flow valuation and a real options... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Capital Budgeting; Corporate Finance; Manufacturing Industry; Electronics Industry

June 2017
Case

AT&T Versus Verizon: A Financial Comparison

By: V.G. Narayanan and Joel L. Heilprin

This case asks students to prepare a report comparing the financial and operating performance of AT&T and Verizon. Taking the perspective of a communications industry analyst, they must also consider the differences between and implications of the companies' business... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Operations; Analysis; Business Model; Accounting; Performance Effectiveness; Telecommunications Industry

Research Summary

Corporate Bond Pricing and Different Sources of Asset Return Volatility (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

This paper presents a pricing model for defaultable bonds. Default is defined by a cash flow, not value, covenant. The cash flow (total distributions) yield is stochastic. We find that different sources of volatility, cash flow versus discount rate news, affect... View Details

January 2009 (Revised June 2010)
Teaching Note

Lyons Document Storage Corporation: Bond Math (Brief Case)

By: William J. Bruns Jr.

Teaching Note to 3215 View Details

Keywords: Financial Accounting; Quantitative Analysis; Securities; Debt Securities; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods; Accounting

2023
Working Paper

The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

May 2011
Case

Baria Planning Solutions, Inc.: Fixing the Sales Process

By: Steven C. Wheelwright and William Schmidt

Baria Planning Solutions (BPS) is a consulting firm that specializes in using spend analysis to help companies identify savings through reduced procurement costs and improved supplier performance. Management is concerned about the disappointing performance of the sales... View Details

Keywords: Quantitative Analysis; Technology; Operations Management; Product Lines; Manufacturing; Capacity Planning; Production Planning; Production; Management Practices and Processes; Service Operations; Supply Chain Management; Salesforce Management; Planning; Consulting Industry; North and Central America

2020
Working Paper

Short-Termism, Shareholder Payouts, and Investment in the EU

By: Jesse M. Fried and Charles C.Y. Wang

Investor-driven “short-termism” is said to harm EU public firms' ability to invest for the long term, prompting calls for the EU to better insulate managers from shareholder pressure. But the evidence offered—in the form of rising levels of repurchases and dividends—is... View Details

Keywords: Short-termism; Quarterly Capitalism; EU; Dividends; Equity Issuances; Equity Compensastion; Capital Flows; Capital Distribution; R＆D; Innovation; Investment; Corporate Governance; Investment Return; Acquisition; European Union

April 2000
Case

Financing of Project Achieve, The (A)

By: Mihir A. Desai

An entrepreneur is forced to analyze the tradeoffs between different equity providers through a detailed analysis of venture financing terms and cash flow forecasts. The founder of a Web-based IMS for schools must negotiate a term sheet, determine funding needs, value... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Cash Flow; Equity; Negotiation Deal; Valuation

February 2006 (Revised October 2006)
Background Note

Introduction to Valuation Multiples

By: Robin Greenwood and Lucy White

Outlines the definition and applicability of financial multiples and their relationship to discounted cash flow analysis. View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Valuation

March 2001
Background Note

Valuing the Option Component of Debt and Its Relevance to DCF-Based Valuation Methods

The flows-to-equity or equity cash flows valuation method is a discounted cash flow method used to estimate the equity portion of the capital structure. It is closely related to the venture capital/buyout valuation method, which estimates the IRR of the stream of cash... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Valuation; Equity

November 2020
Case

Valuing Celgene's CVR

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

When Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) acquired Celgene Corporation in November 2019, Celgene shareholders received cash, BMS stock, and a contingent value right (CVRs) that would pay $9 if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved three of Celgene’s late stage... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Value; Valuation; Judgments; Decision Making; Cash Flow; Financial Instruments; Cognition and Thinking; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; United States

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