Publications

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2024
Working Paper

Ponzi Funds

By: Philippe van der Beck, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Dario Villamaina

Many active funds hold concentrated portfolios. Flow-driven trading causes price pressure, which pushes up the funds’ existing positions resulting in realized returns. We decompose fund returns into a price pressure (self-inflated) and a fundamental component and... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Price Bubble; Financial Reporting; Financial Liquidity

SSRN

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December 2005 (Revised July 2006)
Case

What Should the Federal Reserve Do? Thoughts of Greenspan and Bernanke

By: Lakshmi Iyer and Noel Maurer

Presents remarks by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke on monetary policy, explicit inflation targets, and the relative merits of asset price targeting. View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Asset Pricing; Central Banking; Financial Strategy; Policy; Banking Industry

09 Jan 2006
Research & Ideas

Rebuilding Commercial Real Estate

investor or a hedge fund, having another asset class whose performance is not tied to stocks and bonds is very important," says Slaughter. "Real estate has become part of the fundamental allocation exercise." View Details

Keywords: by Roger Thompson; Construction; Real Estate

1987
Working Paper

Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

By: K. A. Froot

Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over... View Details

Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Volatility

August 2001 (Revised April 2002)
Case

Strategic Capital Management, LLC (A)

By: Mark L. Mitchell, Erik Stafford and Todd Pulvino

Strategic Capital Management, LLC, is a hedge fund that is planning to make financial investments in Creative Computers and Ubid. Creative Computers recently sold approximately 20% of its Internet auction subsidiary, Ubid, to the public at $15 per share. Ubid's stock... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Business Subsidiaries; Internet and the Web; Investment Funds; Price; Performance Efficiency; Capital Markets; Auctions; Investment Return; Equity; Planning; Financial Services Industry

June 2009
Case

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

The senior vice president of project finance for a global oil and gas company must determine the weighted average cost of capital for the company as a whole and each of its divisions as part of the annual capital budgeting process. The case uses comparable companies to... View Details

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Cost of Capital; Cash Flow; Capital Structure; Valuation; Capital Budgeting; Energy Industry

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

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April 2017 (Revised November 2017)
Case

BlackRock (B): Acquire MLIM? (with video links)

By: Ranjay Gulati, Jan W. Rivkin, Stuart C. Gilson and Aldo Sesia

In early 2006, BlackRock, Inc. is considering acquiring Merrill Lynch’s asset management business. The asset management industry was in a state of transition. In the prior year, more than 130 mergers and acquisitions had taken place. The proposed deal between BlackRock... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Competition; Information Technology; Asset Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Decision Choices and Conditions; United States

Research Summary

The Cross Section of Expected Firm (Not Equity) Returns

This paper provides the first comprehensive study of expected firm (unlevered equity) returns. After accounting for the debt component of the firm return, I find that many of the cross sectional determinants of expected equity returns, such as the book-to-market... View Details

07 Jul 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Predictable Financial Crises

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Research Summary

Rare Consumption Disasters

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

Another defining feature of financial crises is consumption disasters, or large drops in aggregate consumption. Rather than taking the standard approach of seeking implications of such rare disasters for asset pricing in consumption data, Professor Siriwardane asks... View Details

April 2005
Case

The University of Chicago Investment Office: Investing in Timber

In 2005, the University of Chicago Investment office was deciding how much capital to allocate toward timber investing. Explores the challenges associated with optimal portfolio construction when one of the invested assets is illiquid with limited historical price... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financial Services Industry; Education Industry

Research Summary

Overview

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

In his research, Professor Siriwardane seeks to develop a quantitative understanding of how the financial sector affects asset prices and macroeconomic stability, particularly relevant in the wake of the financial crisis of the last decade. View Details

March 1989 (Revised April 1998)
Case

Marriott Corporation: The Cost of Capital (Abridged)

By: Richard S. Ruback

Gives students the opportunity to explore how a company uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to compute the cost of capital for each of its divisions. The use of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula and the mechanics of applying it are stressed. View Details

Keywords: Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods

April 2022
Article

Predictable Financial Crises

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

20 Jun 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, June 20

and Andrei Shleifer Abstract—We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

January 2003 (Revised September 2007)
Background Note

A Note on Racing to Acquire Customers

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

Examines factors that motivate a firm's race to acquire customers in newly emerging markets and explores conditions under which racing strategies are likely to yield attractive returns. Provides a definition of racing behavior, introduces the notion of an optimal level... View Details

Keywords: Customers; Price Bubble; Network Effects; Emerging Markets; Market Entry and Exit; Behavior; Competition

2009
Case

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital (TN): Brief Case.

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

Finance, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), Capital Structure, Risk Assessment, Corporate Finance, Cash Flow, Valuation, Beta, North America, Energy, Oil and Gas, Cost of Capital, Cost of Equity, Discount Rate, Risk Premium,... View Details

Keywords: Capital Budgeting; Cost of Capital; Energy Industry

2025
Working Paper

Rethinking Volume

By: Philippe van der Beck, Lorenzo Bretscher and Zhiyu Julie Fu

Gross trading volumes in financial markets are large and far exceed return volatility. In contrast, “net volume”—trading from persistent portfolio reallocations—is substantially lower, as it excludes transitory round-trip trades. This observation reveals a fundamental... View Details