Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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March 2019 (Revised May 2019)
Case

Growth Investing at Totem Point

By: Suraj Srinivasan, Charles C.Y. Wang and Jonah Goldberg

The case describes the investment of hedge fund, Totem Point Management in Analog Semiconductors (ADI) as a way to discuss forecasting and valuation in growth companies. In June 2016, hedge fund Totem Point invested in ADI at around $55 a share. In general, Totem Point... View Details

Keywords: Growth Investing; Investment; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation

December 2010 (Revised January 2011)
Supplement

Qualcomm Incorporated 2011 Update

By: David B. Yoffie

Qualcomm in 2009 and 2010 experienced both the worst of times and the best of times. During the "great recession" of 2009, smartphones growth stalled, stalling Qualcomm's revenue, but in 2010 growth surged again, and was predicted to continue its upward trajectory in... View Details

Keywords: Television Entertainment; Growth and Development Strategy; Opportunities; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Telecommunications Industry

Research Summary

What Really Works: Fundamental Drivers of Corporate Performance

By: Nitin Nohria

Based on a systematic examination of over 200 management practices that have been hypothesized to influence corporate performance, we identify eight management practices that appear to be the most robust drivers of long term corporate success. We are now trying to... View Details

2017
Working Paper

Management as a Technology?

By: Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen

Are some management practices akin to a technology that can explain firm and national productivity, or do they simply reflect contingent management styles? We collect data on core management practices from over 11,000 firms in 34 countries. We find large cross-country... View Details

Keywords: Management Practices; Productivity; Competition; Management Practices and Processes; Performance Productivity

September 2004
Article

Capital Controls: A Political Economy Approach

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping-generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income from... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Voting; Conflict of Interests; Capital; Government and Politics; Wages; Saving; Forecasting and Prediction

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06 Apr 2021
Video

A Simple Strategy for Happiness

March 2008
Case

Cambrian House

By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee

Cambrian House builds internet-based products and services by relying entirely on its user community for all aspects of its innovation and new product development process. Users suggest ideas for new products and services and also participate in a monthly voting... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Voting; Technological Innovation; Knowledge Management; Marketing Strategy; Open Source Distribution; Product Development; Strategic Planning; Business and Community Relations; Internet

Article

Measuring the Effectiveness of Competition in Defense Procurement: A Survey of the Empirical Literature

By: James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao

This article surveys the literature that has attempted to measure competition's effects on defense procurement. The focus is on conceptual underpinnings of models rather than technical aspects of estimation procedures. While providing valuable insight, the models are... View Details

Keywords: Performance Effectiveness; Competition; Surveys; Value; Economics; Forecasting and Prediction; Programs; Power and Influence; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

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2017
Working Paper

Lone Wolves in Competitive Equilibria

By: Ravi Jagadeesan, Scott Duke Kominers and Ross Rheingans-Yoo

This paper develops a class of equilibrium-independent predictions of competitive equilibrium with indivisibilities. Specifically, we prove an analogue of the “Lone Wolf Theorem” of classical matching theory, showing that when utility is perfectly transferable, any... View Details

Keywords: Indivisibilities; Matching; Lone Wolf Theorem; Marketplace Matching; Theory

Leslie A. Perlow

Leslie A. Perlow is the Konosuke Matsushita Professor of Leadership in the Organizational Behavior Unit at Harvard Business School. She leads the Crafting Your Life Special Project, dedicated to helping individuals make purposeful life choices while gathering... View Details

March 2010
Article

The Evolution of Corporate Ownership after IPO: The Impact of Investor Protection

By: C. Fritz Foley and Robin Greenwood

We use firm-level data from 34 countries covering the 1995-2006 period to analyze how the characteristics of public markets shape the process by which firms become widely held. Firms in all countries in the sample tend to have concentrated ownership at the time they go... View Details

Keywords: Blockholding; Float; Shareholder Rights; Investor Protection; Ownership; Financial Liquidity; Business History; Market Timing; Going Public; Business and Government Relations; Business and Shareholder Relations

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October 2014
Article

Do Analysts Add Value When They Most Can? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs

By: Emilie Feldman, Stuart C. Gilson and Belen Villalonga

This paper investigates how securities analysts help investors understand the value of diversification. By studying the research that analysts produce about companies that have announced corporate spinoffs, we gain unique insights into how analysts portray diversified... View Details

Keywords: Analysts; Spin-offs; Diversification Discount; Information Asymmetry; Value Creation; Business Subsidiaries; Diversification; Corporate Strategy; Investment

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August 2021 (Revised November 2023)
Supplement

Coats: Supply Chain Challenges

By: Willy C. Shih

Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia

2023
Working Paper

Are Hospital Quality Indicators Causal?

By: Amitabh Chandra, Maurice Dalton and Douglas O. Staiger

Hospitals play a key role in patient outcomes and spending, but efforts to improve their quality are hindered because we do not know whether hospital quality indicators are causal or biased. We evaluate the validity of commonly used quality indicators, such as... View Details

Keywords: Quality; Health Care and Treatment; Measurement and Metrics; Outcome or Result; Health Industry

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Article

Managing the Unknowable: The Effectiveness of Early-stage Investor Gut Feel in Entrepreneurial Investment Decisions

By: Laura Huang and Jone L. Pearce

Using an inductive theory-development study, a field experiment, and a longitudinal field test, we examine early-stage entrepreneurial investment decision making under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Building on existing literature on decision making and risk in... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making; Emotions; Performance Effectiveness

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2024
Article

Learning Under Random Distributional Shifts

By: Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson and Dominik Rothenhäusler

Algorithmic assignment of refugees and asylum seekers to locations within host countries has gained attention in recent years, with implementations in the U.S. and Switzerland. These approaches use data on past arrivals to generate machine learning models that can... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Refugees; Employment

January 2009
Article

Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment

By: Malcolm Baker, C. Fritz Foley and Jeffrey Wurgler

Empirical evidence of imperfect integration across world capital markets suggests a role for cross-border arbitrage by multinationals. Consistent with multinational arbitrage as a determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns, we find that FDI flows increase... View Details

Keywords: Multinational Firms and Management; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Valuation; Capital Markets; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Stocks; Integration

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Article

Thinking About Technology: Applying a Cognitive Lens to Technical Change

We apply a cognitive lens to understanding technology trajectories across the life cycle by developing a co-evolutionary model of technological frames and technology. Applying that model to each stage of the technology life cycle, we identify conditions under which a... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Transformation; Outcome or Result; Economics; Cognition and Thinking; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction

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June 2020 (Revised February 2021)
Case

Accounting for Leases at American Airlines (A)

By: Jonas Heese, Gerardo Pérez Cavazos and Julia Kelley

In March 2020, as coronavirus reduced demand for air travel, an analyst was forecasting American Airlines’ (American’s) first quarter financial results. To develop a forecast, she needed to familiarize herself with Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02, “Leases... View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Leasing; Accounting Industry; Air Transportation Industry; North and Central America; United States

Research Summary

Overview

Paul is primarily interested in studying explainable machine learning (ML), digital transformation, and data science operations. He works on research that explores how stakeholders within organizations can use machine learning to make better decisions. In particular,... View Details

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