Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

April 2020
Article

Long-term Firm Growth: An Empirical Analysis of U.S. Manufacturers 1959–2015

By: Giovanni Dosi, Marco Grazzi, Daniele Moschella, Gary P. Pisano and Federico Tamagni

Firm growth is an essential feature of market economies, shaping together macroeconomic performance and the evolution of industry structures. As a potential indicator of organizational “fitness” within a competitive environment, firm growth is also a central concern to... View Details

Keywords: Firm Growth; Organizations; Growth and Development; Theory; Analysis; Production; Data and Data Sets

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06 Feb 2020
Research & Ideas

What We Learned from Reading Jeff Bezos’ Patents

which Bezos spends time patenting or not patenting reflects his interests. More important, this analysis provides more depth to our earlier analysis, which suggested that the effectiveness of twenty-first century CEOs could be predicted... View Details

Keywords: by Tricia Gregg and Boris Groysberg; Retail

25 Mar 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Demographics, Career Concerns or Social Comparison: Who Games SSRN Download Counts?

Keywords: by Benjamin G. Edelman & Ian I. Larkin; Education

Research Summary

Customer-Centricity as a Vehicle for Organic Growth

By: Ranjay Gulati

This body of work examines the mechanics of how firms grow profitably in commoditizing markets. Underlying the "customer-centricity" that many firms embrace today is a factor that will determine their success with this effort: enabling collaboration across... View Details

2018
Working Paper

Channeled Attention and Stable Errors -- Previous Working Version

By: Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein

A common critique of models of mistaken beliefs is that people should recognize their error after observations they thought were unlikely. This paper develops a framework for assessing when a given error is likely to be discovered, in the sense that the error-maker... View Details

Keywords: Perception; Behavior; Theory; Situation or Environment

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13 Dec 2011
First Look

First Look: Dec. 13

PublicationsAdding Bricks to Clicks: Predicting the Patterns of Cross-Channel Elasticities over Time Authors:Jill Avery, Thomas J. Steenburgh, John Deighton, and Mary Caravella Publication:Journal of Marketing (forthcoming) Abstract In... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Web

Business Fundamentals Course - CORe | HBS Online

Adjusting Journal Entries The Statement of Cash Flows Analyzing Financial Statements Accounting for the Future Featured Exercises Discover how balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements are developed Predict future... View Details

21 Jul 2021
Research & Ideas

What Does an ESG Score Really Say About a Company?

Receiving more information can clarify the complex, but not when it comes to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores. A recent study shows that the more information a company discloses about its ESG practices, the more rating agencies disagree on how well... View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz

Web

Online Business Analytics Course | HBS Online

results of a series of website A/B tests 8 hrs Module 4 Single Variable Linear Regression Analyze the relationship between two variables and develop forecasts for values outside the data set. Highlights Prediction Intervals Interpreting... View Details

23 May 2018
Research & Ideas

How to Know If Your Neighborhood Is Being Gentrified

that gentrification can ruin neighborhoods by forcing out existing businesses that serve the needs of the locals. “We found that changes in the local economy—such as a new coffee shop opening—can predict gentrification,” says Harvard... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

18 Jan 2016
Research & Ideas

Hazard Warning: The Unacceptable Cost of Toxic Workers

supplies to disrespectful behavior, falsifying documents, bullying people, and sexual harassment, and what I’m observing are those people who are actually terminated,” Minor says. “If you’re overconfident, you think you’re less likely to be caught. That’s very View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland

13 Aug 2012
Research & Ideas

When Good Incentives Lead to Bad Decisions

application on a scale of 0 to 100. Loan approvals were not contingent on a minimum score. "This approach is common practice for consumer and small-enterprise loans for which the bank records internal ratings but does not use View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Banking

01 Jun 2011
Working Paper Summaries

The First Deal: The Division of Founder Equity in New Ventures

Keywords: by Thomas F. Hellmann & Noam Wasserman

2023
Working Paper

PRIMO: Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes

By: Seth Neel

We introduce a new differentially private regression setting we call Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes (PRIMO), inspired the common situation where a data analyst wants to perform a set of l regressions while preserving privacy, where the covariates... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods

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2021
Working Paper

Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime

By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu

On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important... View Details

Keywords: Financial Institutions; Crime and Corruption; Policy

Citation

SSRN

26 Jun 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, June 26, 2018

facial-expression tracking is used to study viewers’ real-time emotional responses when watching comedy movie trailers online. These data are used to predict both viewers’ intentions to watch the movie and the movie’s box office success.... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

19 Apr 2010
Research & Ideas

The History of Beauty

largest, most professionally managed global companies find it hard to predict the success of product launches, and can stumble badly. One estimate is that 90 percent of new fragrance launches fail. Getting the word out to consumers, and... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Beauty & Cosmetics

09 Oct 2001
Research & Ideas

Driven: How Human Nature Shapes Organizations

bores you, and which the world does not need—this life is hell. —W.E.B. Du Bois In the organizational context, the four-drive theory implies that every person, from the CEO to the most junior employee will bring a predictable set of... View Details

Keywords: by Paul Lawrence & Nitin Nohria

09 Jan 2020
Book

Rethinking Business Strategy in the Age of AI

Industrial Revolution. This is a fundamental change in the means of production, and it’s affecting every industry across the board. Gerdeman: Netflix has successfully used AI-driven processes to create sophisticated predictions about its... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
Case

Data-Driven Denim: Financial Forecasting at Levi Strauss

By: Mark Egan

The case examines Levi Strauss’ journey in implementing machine learning and AI into its financial forecasting process. The apparel company partnered with the IT company Wipro in 2017 to develop a machine learning algorithm that could help Levi Strauss forecast its... View Details