Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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July 1983 (Revised September 1986)
Case

Johnson Wax: Enhance (B)

After the initial ASSESSOR indicated problems in formulation, product position, and advertising copy, Enhance was modified and retested using ASSESSOR. Compares the new results as well as presenting teaching study data. Enhance is well below predicted share. Is the... View Details

Keywords: Product Positioning; Marketing Strategy; Advertising; Product Development; Beauty and Cosmetics Industry

2024
Working Paper

Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization

By: Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets... View Details

Keywords: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Multi-task Learning; Representation Learning; Personalization; Promotion; Deep Learning; Field Experiments; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customization and Personalization

2006
Working Paper

The Effect of Dividends on Consumption

By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler

Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Personal Finance; Investment Return; Household

Article

Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science

By: Katherine L. Milkman, Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Pepi Pandiloski, Yeji Park, Aneesh Rai, Max Bazerman, John Beshears, Lauri Bonacorsi, Colin Camerer, Edward Chang, Gretchen Chapman, Robert Cialdini, Hengchen Dai, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach, James J. Gross, Samantha Horn, Alexa Hubbard, Steven J. Jones, Dean Karlan, Tim Kautz, Erika Kirgios, Joowon Klusowski, Ariella Kristal, Rahul Ladhania, Jens Ludwig, George Loewenstein, Barbara Mellers, Sendhil Mullainathan, Silvia Saccardo, Jann Spiess, Gaurav Suri, Joachim H. Talloen, Jamie Taxer, Yaacov Trope, Lyle Ungar, Kevin G. Volpp, Ashley V. Whillans, Jonathan Zinman and Angela L. Duckworth

Policy-makers are increasingly turning to behavioural science for insights about how to improve citizens’ decisions and outcomes. Typically, different scientists test different intervention ideas in different samples using different outcomes over different time... View Details

Keywords: Policy Making; Behavioral Science; Behavior; Change; Decision Making; Policy

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May 2023 (Revised November 2023)
Case

Arcos Dorados: Decarbonizing McDonald’s in Latin America

By: George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal

This case describes the decarbonization strategy of Arcos Dorados—McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, operating in 20 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean—and how the company measured its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including those... View Details

Keywords: Environmental Accounting; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Food; Growth Management; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Strategy; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Green Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Latin America; North and Central America; South America

November 2017 (Revised October 2018)
Case

Brandless: Disrupting Consumer Packaged Goods

Brandless, an online direct-to-consumer seller of upscale private-label consumer packaged goods, offered consumers a limited assortment of values-conscious products delivered directly to their homes with the simplicity of one fixed $3 price point that promised an... View Details

December 2014
Case

Groupon: A New CEO Takes Charge

By: Lynda M. Applegate and Arnold B. Peinado

On August 7, 2013, Eric Lefkofsky, the chairman and largest shareholder of Groupon was named CEO, replacing founder Andrew Mason, who had run the company since its inception in 2009. When Groupon had its initial public offering (IPO) in November 2011, the company's... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Management; Disruptive Technologies; Growth Strategy; Customer Relations; Service Management; International Business; Business Models; Strategy Execution; Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Model; United States

11 Feb 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Goals Gone Wild: The Systematic Side Effects of Over-Prescribing Goal Setting

Keywords: by Lisa D. Ordóñez, Maurice E. Schweitzer, Adam D. Galinsky & Max H. Bazerman

March 2001 (Revised March 2003)
Case

Syncra Systems

Syncra Systems makes Internet-based software that allows supply chain partners to compare disparate forecasts and production plans, to uncover any discrepancies among them, and to address these issues. However, many potential Syncra customers perceive that they will... View Details

Keywords: Product Positioning; Internet and the Web; Supply Chain Management; Applications and Software; Sales

Article

From Wealth to Well-Being? Money Matters, but Less than People Think

By: Lara B. Aknin, Michael I. Norton and Elizabeth W. Dunn

While numerous studies have documented the modest (though reliable) link between household income and well-being, we examined the accuracy of laypeople's intuitions about this relationship by asking people from across the income spectrum to report their own... View Details

Keywords: Happiness; Work-Life Balance; Satisfaction; Income; Household

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December 2002 (Revised February 2003)
Case

Broken Trust: Role of Professionals in the Enron Debacle

By: Ashish Nanda

Discusses the role of professionals in the Enron debacle. Argues that professionals failed to prevent or predict Enron's collapse because of the conflicts of interest they faced. Concludes with observations on management and regulation of conflicts of interest facing... View Details

Keywords: Conflict of Interests; Trust; Management Teams; Energy Industry

02 Jun 2013
News

On the Job: Don't let shiny job blind you to realities

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data,... View Details

How to Make Climate Risk Good Business

The risk profiles of many real estate markets are rapidly increasing globally. Insurers and mortgage brokers are taking note and adjusting their offering based on widely available climate data and predictive analytics. John Macomber suggests that consumers and... View Details

June 2012
Article

Decoding Inside Information

By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski

Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trading. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms.... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Law Enforcement; Opportunities; Geographic Location; Business Earnings

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2021
Book

Why Startups Fail: A New Roadmap for Entrepreneurial Success

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

Why Startups Fail explores entrepreneurial failure, examining its predictable patterns, how to avoid them, and how to cope when failure does occur. Part I looks at three common failure patterns for early-stage startups, illustrating each with an anchor case... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Failure; Success; Framework

January 2011
Case

The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research

By: Suraj Srinivasan and David Lane

The case describes the Risk-Reward framework that Morgan Stanley analysts use as a systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about a company rather than the traditional single point estimates. The goal of the framework is to focus the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Business Processes; Research; Valuation

December 1993 (Revised March 1995)
Case

Medical Products Co.

By: Robert H. Hayes

In early 1990, the company is contemplating changes in its European plant network for producing hypodermic products, including the total production capacity to be provided, the number and location of plants over which to spread this capacity, and which products should... View Details

Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Production; Performance Capacity; Performance Effectiveness; Strategic Planning; Competitive Strategy; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Europe

31 Oct 2004
What Do You Think?

Should the Wisdom of Crowds Influence Our Thinking About Leadership?

outcomes (through, for example, market-mediated trading systems, so-called "decision markets," for predicting the outcomes of things such as presidential elections and even potential success in... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

July – August 2011
Article

The Paradox of Samsung's Rise

By: Tarun Khanna, Jaeyong Song and Kyungmook Lee

Twenty years ago, few people would have predicted that Samsung could transform itself from a low-cost original equipment manufacturer to a world leader in R&D, marketing, and design, with a brand more valuable than Pepsi, Nike, or American Express. Fewer still would... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Design; Research and Development; Marketing; Business Processes; Brands and Branding; System; Globalized Markets and Industries; Transformation; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Production; Quality; China; India; Turkey

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