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Research Summary

The Power of Paradox: Some Recent Developments in Interactive Epistemology

This survey describes a central paradox of game theory, viz. the Paradox of Backward Induction (BI). The paradox is that the BI outcome is often said to follow from basic game-theoretic principles--specifically, from the assumption that the players are rational. Yet,... View Details

Research Summary

Manager Specific Human Capital Investment: A Model of Block Trading and Firm Stability

I develop a model in which workers can undertake specific human capital investments in the firm and in the manager employed by the firm. If the manager leaves the firm, a worker has to decide whether to join her in the new firm or stay in the old firm. In case of... View Details

2023
Article

Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy

By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov

Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a... View Details

Keywords: Product Launch; Mathematical Methods; Product Development

05 Jul 2006
Working Paper Summaries

The IPS Property

Keywords: by Thomas J. Steenburgh; Financial Services

Forthcoming
Article

FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments

By: Pulak Ghosh, Boris Vallée and Yao Zeng

Borrower's use of cashless payments both improves their access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts a lower probability of default. These relationships are stronger for cashless technologies providing more precise information, and for outflows. Cashless payment... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Lending; Payments; Data Sharing; Financing and Loans; Information Technology; Banks and Banking; Business Model

Article

Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia

By: Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso and Jorge Tamayo

We investigate the effects of job displacement, as a result of mass layoffs, on criminal arrests using a matched employer-employee-crime dataset from Medellín, Colombia. Job displacement leads to immediate and persistent earnings losses and higher probability of arrest... View Details

Keywords: Job Displacements; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Crime and Corruption; Credit; Colombia; Medellín

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2020
Working Paper

Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia

By: Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso and Jorge Tamayo

We investigate the effects of job displacement, as a result of mass layoffs, on criminal arrests using a matched employer-employee-crime dataset from Medellín, Colombia. Job displacement leads to immediate and persistent earnings losses and higher probability of arrest... View Details

Keywords: Job Displacements; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Crime and Corruption; Credit; Colombia; Medellín

October 2012
Article

The Effect of Reference Point Prices on Mergers and Acquisitions

By: Malcolm Baker, Xin Pan and Jeffrey Wurgler

Prior stock price peaks of targets affect several aspects of merger and acquisition activity. Offer prices are biased toward recent peak prices although they are economically unremarkable. An offer's probability of acceptance jumps discontinuously when it exceeds a... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Stocks; Price; Valuation; Negotiation

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December 2003
Case

Manville Corporation Fiber Glass Group (C) (Abridged)

By: Lynn S. Paine

Manville Corp.'s senior managers are surprised when Japanese government officials advise them not to go forward with their plan to add a cancer warning label to diatomaceous earth (DE) products sold in Japan. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has ruled... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Moral Sensibility; Safety; Government Administration; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Decision Choices and Conditions; Ethics; Announcements; Industrial Products Industry; Japan

Teaching Interest

Overview

2018 - present Harvard Business School, Transforming Health Care Delivery (MBA elective curriculum) 2014 - 2017 Harvard Business Schoool, Technology and Operations Management (first-year required MBA curriculum) Summer 2012 Harvard Kennedy School of Government,... View Details

March 2011
Supplement

The Future of BioPasteur -- Supplement

By: Giovanni Gavetti and Francesca Gino

The purpose of this exercise is to let students experience a few biases that can be deleterious to strategic decision-making. In particular, students are induced to fall into a confirmatory trap, and to experience other biases such as anchoring and sampling bias.... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Problems and Challenges; Prejudice and Bias

2023
Working Paper

Avoiding Idiosyncratic Volatility: Flow Sensitivity to Individual Stock Returns

By: Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Shimon Kogan and Ran Xing

Despite positive and significant earnings announcement premia, we find that institutional investors reduce their exposure to stocks before earnings announcements. A novel result on the sensitivity of flows to individual stock returns provides a potential explanation.... View Details

Keywords: New Trading; Mutual Funds; Fund Flows; Limits To Arbitrage; Financial Constraints; Earnings Announcements; Institutional Investing; Stocks

Summer 2021
Article

Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths

By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim

We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy

2018
Working Paper

Semi-Parametric Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models

By: David Hao Zhang

I develop a new method for estimating counterfactuals in dynamic discrete choice models, a widely used set of models in economics, without requiring a distributional assumption on utility shocks. Applying my method to the canonical Rust (1987) setting, I find that the... View Details

Keywords: Semiparametrics; Dynamic Discrete Choice; Consumer Choice; Mathematical Methods

March 2011
Supplement

BioPasteur: Instructions for the group discussion

By: Giovanni Gavetti and Francesca Gino

The purpose of this exercise is to let students experience a few biases that can be deleterious to strategic decision-making. In particular, students are induced to fall into a confirmatory trap, and to experience other biases such as anchoring and sampling bias.... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Groups and Teams; Prejudice and Bias; Strategy

February 1994 (Revised May 1999)
Case

Manville Corp. Fiber Glass Group (C)

By: Lynn S. Paine and Sarah Gant

Manville Corp.'s senior managers are surprised when Japanese government officials advise them not to go forward with their plan to add a cancer warning label to diatomaceous earth (DE) products sold in Japan. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has ruled... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Ethics; Conflict of Interests; Health; Safety; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Policy; Japan

2019
Working Paper

Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt

By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao

Rising student debt is considered one of the creeping threats of our time. This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit the plausibly random debt discharge due to the inability of National Collegiate,... View Details

Keywords: Student Debt; Private Student Loans; Legal Settlement; Mobility; Debt Collection; Debt Relief; Borrowing and Debt; Personal Finance; Outcome or Result; United States

Research Summary

Bricks and Clicks: The Effect of Store Assortment on E-tail Format (with R. Lal and E. Ofek)

An often neglected aspect in existing studies of the Internet selling process is the high volume of product returns. Such returns reflect a major logistic expenditure on behalf of companies that sell over the net. The problem is reduced when consumers shop in physical... View Details

2022
Working Paper

The Transformation of Self Employment

By: Innessa Colaiacovo, Margaret Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr

Over the past half-century, while self-employment has consistently accounted for around one in ten of the United States workforce, its composition has changed. Since 1970, industries with high startup capital requirements have declined from 53% of self-employment to... View Details

Keywords: Self-employment; Startup Investment; Occupational Choice; Financing; Small Business; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Financing and Loans

September 2016 (Revised October 2018)
Case

LabCDMX: Experiment 50

By: Mitchell Weiss and Maria Fernanda Miguel

There were probably 30,000 public buses, minibuses, and vans in Mexico City. Though, in 2015, no one knew for certain since no comprehensive schedule existed. This was why el Laboratorio para la Ciudad (or LabCDMX) had spawned an effort to generate a map of the... View Details

Keywords: Public Entrepreneurship; Experimentation; Lean Startup; Government; Innovation; Crowdsourcing; Open Data; Entrepreneurship; Social Entrepreneurship; Innovation and Invention; Innovation Leadership; Government Administration; Transportation; Transportation Industry; Mexico City; Mexico

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