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(2,884)
- News (476)
- Research (2,210)
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- Faculty Publications (1,424)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,884)
- News (476)
- Research (2,210)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,424)
- 26 Nov 2019
- News
Predicting Financial Market Bubbles and Crises in Real-time
turnover, age of the firm, and the percentage of firms that issued stock during a run-up, among other factors. Greenwood found that, while Fama was correct in asserting that sharp price increases do not predict lower returns going... View Details
- December 2005
- Article
Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior
By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker
Allenby, Greg, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter, and Joan Walker. "Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior." Marketing Letters 16, nos. 3/4 (December 2005).
- 22 Jan 2025
- News
11 Predictions for Work and Leadership in 2025
- May 2022
- Article
Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks
By: Dan Amiram, Evgeny Lyandres and Daniel Rabetti
This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers. The... View Details
Keywords: Blockchain; Bitcoin; Accounting; AI and Machine Learning; National Security; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
Amiram, Dan, Evgeny Lyandres, and Daniel Rabetti. "Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks." Journal of Accounting Research 60, no. 2 (May 2022): 427–466.
Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks
This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers.... View Details
- 2011
- Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction
By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
- 26 Jun 2014
- News
Shifting toward Defined Contributions — Predicting the Effects
- 11 Mar 2014
- News
Health companies eye predictive software for patient care
- 04 Dec 2013
- News
Economic Prediction Made Us (Too) Comfortable With Capitalism
- 11 Oct 2009
- News
The future of investing: academics predict more complexity
- 30 May 2023
- News
Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- Article
The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
- 2005
- Article
Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises
By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins
Bazerman, M., and M. Watkins. "Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises." International Public Management Journal 8, no. 3 (2005): 365–377.
- fall 2004
- Article
Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)
By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
Bazerman, M., and Michael Watkins. "Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)." Compass 2, no. 1 (fall 2004): 42–43.
- Article
Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes
By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec
Kosinki, Michal, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Jure Leskovec. "Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes." Psychological Methods 21, no. 4 (December 2016): 493–506.
- 21 Jun 2013 - 22 Jun 2013
- Conference Presentation
Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors
By: Frank Nagle
Nagle, Frank. "Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors." Paper presented at the 11th ZEW Conference on the Economics of Information and Communication Technologies, Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, Germany, June 21–22, 2013.
- Summer 2021
- Article
Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).