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Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (2,884)
    • News  (476)
    • Research  (2,210)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,424)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (2,884)
    • News  (476)
    • Research  (2,210)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,424)
← Page 6 of 2,884 Results →
  • 26 Nov 2019
  • News

Predicting Financial Market Bubbles and Crises in Real-time

turnover, age of the firm, and the percentage of firms that issued stock during a run-up, among other factors. Greenwood found that, while Fama was correct in asserting that sharp price increases do not predict lower returns going... View Details
Keywords: Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Finance
  • December 2005
  • Article

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Behavior
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Allenby, Greg, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter, and Joan Walker. "Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior." Marketing Letters 16, nos. 3/4 (December 2005).
  • 22 Jan 2025
  • News

11 Predictions for Work and Leadership in 2025

  • May 2022
  • Article

Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks

By: Dan Amiram, Evgeny Lyandres and Daniel Rabetti
This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers. The... View Details
Keywords: Blockchain; Bitcoin; Accounting; AI and Machine Learning; National Security; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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Amiram, Dan, Evgeny Lyandres, and Daniel Rabetti. "Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks." Journal of Accounting Research 60, no. 2 (May 2022): 427–466.

    Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks

    This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers.... View Details
    • 2011
    • Article

    A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

    By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth
    Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details
    Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness
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    Ert, Eyal, Ido Erev, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 2, no. 3 (September 2011): 257–276.
    • June 2023
    • Article

    When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

    By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
    As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
    Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making
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    McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
    • 26 Jun 2014
    • News

    Shifting toward Defined Contributions — Predicting the Effects

    • 11 Mar 2014
    • News

    Health companies eye predictive software for patient care

    • 04 Dec 2013
    • News

    Economic Prediction Made Us (Too) Comfortable With Capitalism

    • 11 Oct 2009
    • News

    The future of investing: academics predict more complexity

    • 30 May 2023
    • News

    Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?

    • January 2019
    • Article

    Bubbles for Fama

    By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
    We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
    Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
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    Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
    • Article

    The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation

    By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
    Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details
    Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction
    Citation
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    Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
    • 2005
    • Article

    Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises

    By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins
    Keywords: National Security; Failure
    Citation
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    Bazerman, M., and M. Watkins. "Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises." International Public Management Journal 8, no. 3 (2005): 365–377.
    • fall 2004
    • Article

    Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)

    By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
    Keywords: Negotiation; Books
    Citation
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    Bazerman, M., and Michael Watkins. "Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)." Compass 2, no. 1 (fall 2004): 42–43.
    • Article

    Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes

    By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec
    Citation
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    Kosinki, Michal, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Jure Leskovec. "Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes." Psychological Methods 21, no. 4 (December 2016): 493–506.
    • 21 Jun 2013 - 22 Jun 2013
    • Conference Presentation

    Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors

    By: Frank Nagle
    Citation
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    Nagle, Frank. "Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors." Paper presented at the 11th ZEW Conference on the Economics of Information and Communication Technologies, Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, Germany, June 21–22, 2013.
    • Link

    Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions

    • Summer 2021
    • Article

    Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths

    By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
    We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details
    Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
    Citation
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    Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
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