Publications

SSRN

2020
Conference Presentation

Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments

By: L. Tarhan, J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez and T. Konkle

08 Jan 2022
News

Harvard And Stanford Professors Predict The Future Of Work

26 Nov 2019
News

Predicting Financial Market Bubbles and Crises in Real-time

turnover, age of the firm, and the percentage of firms that issued stock during a run-up, among other factors. Greenwood found that, while Fama was correct in asserting that sharp price increases do not predict lower returns going... View Details

Keywords: Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Finance

December 2005
Article

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Behavior

22 Jan 2025
News

11 Predictions for Work and Leadership in 2025

2011
Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth

Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness

June 2023
Article

When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making

May 2022
Article

Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On-Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks

By: Dan Amiram, Evgeny Lyandres and Daniel Rabetti

This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers. The... View Details

Keywords: Blockchain; Bitcoin; Accounting; AI and Machine Learning; National Security; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms

This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers.... View Details

Article

Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses

By: Kaivalya Rawal and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision-making, there has been a lot of interest in developing algorithms which can provide recourses to affected individuals. While developing such tools is important, it is even more critical to... View Details

Keywords: Predictive Models; Decision Making; Framework; Mathematical Methods

30 May 2023
News

Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?

February 2022
Teaching Note

Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI

By: Navid Mojir

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053. View Details

Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey

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Article

The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky

Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction

Keywords: by Laura Vuillier, Alison Wood Brooks, June Gruber, Rui Sun, Michael I. Norton, Matthew James Samson, Emiliana Simon-Thomas, Paul Piff, Sarah Fan, Jordi Quoidbach, Charles Gorintin, Pete Fleming, Arturo Bejar, and Dacher Keltner

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16 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Amount and Diversity of Digital Emotional Expression Predicts Happiness

July– September 2002
Article

Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron

Keywords: Value; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Theory

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

2005
Article

Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises

By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins

Keywords: National Security; Failure

fall 2004
Article

Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)

By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins

Keywords: Negotiation; Books