Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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June 2020
Teaching Note

Career Karma: Growth in a Time of Global Uncertainty (A) and (B)

By: Laura Huang and Elizabeth Jiang

October–December 2022
Article

How Psychological Safety and Feeling Heard Relate to Burnout and Adaptation Amid Uncertainty

By: Michaela J. Kerrissey, Tuna Cem Hayirli, Aditi Bhanja, Nicholas Stark, James Hardy and Christopher Peabody

Background: Psychological safety—the belief that it is safe to speak up—is vital amid uncertainty, but its relationship to feeling heard is not well understood.
Purpose: The aims of this study were (a) to measure feeling heard and (b) to assess... View Details

Keywords: Burnout; Crisis; Psychological Safety; Feeling Heard; Process Adaptation; Interpersonal Communication; Well-being; Health Care and Treatment; Adaptation

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2024
Working Paper

What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon

We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an... View Details

Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers

May 2000
Article

Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Peter Klibanoff and Emre Ozdenoren

This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors (MMEU) decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are Savage acts. This characterization complements the original axiomatizations of MMEU developed in a... View Details

Keywords: Uncertainty Aversion; Ambiguity; Expected Utility; Set Of Priors; Knightian Uncertainty; Decision Making; Game Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Mathematical Methods

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12 Mar 2020
News

The Power of Experiments: How To Drive Innovation and Opportunity During Times of Uncertainty

Article

Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan

We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction

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October 2012
Article

The Preference for Potential

By: Zakary L. Tormala, Jayson Jia and Michael I. Norton

When people seek to impress others, they often do so by highlighting individual achievements. Despite the intuitive appeal of this strategy, we demonstrate that people often prefer potential rather than achievement when evaluating others. Indeed, compared with... View Details

Keywords: Preferences; Persuasion; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Performance Expectations; Attitudes

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November–December 2018
Article

Uncertainty about Managers' Reporting Objectives and Investors' Response to Earnings Reports: Evidence from the 2006 Executive Compensation Disclosures

By: Fabrizio Ferri, Ronghuo Zheng and Yuan Zou

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Research Summary

Overview

Professor Goh’s primary research interest is applying mathematical models to real-world problems in health care in order to inform, improve, and enhance medical decision making and health policy. His recent work in this domain focuses on developing new methods for... View Details

Keywords: Uncertainty; Optimization; Inventory Management; Health; Decision Making; Supply Chain

November 2012 (Revised April 2013)
Case

Konys, Inc.

By: Deishin Lee and Tunay I. Tunca

This case describes the sourcing policy for a consumer electronics company. The company must decide how to structure contracts with their supplier—using a purchase contract, an option contract, or combination of the two. The company can also buy from the spot market.... View Details

Keywords: Option Contract; Uncertainty; Sourcing; Supplier Relationship; Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Supply Chain; Consumer Products Industry; Electronics Industry

January 2025
Supplement

Martin Luther King, Jr.: A Young Minister Confronts the Challenges of Montgomery (B)

By: Nien-hê Hsieh and Derek C. M. van Bever

Recounts a pivotal moment in Martin Luther King Jr.'s life during the Montgomery Bus Boycott, where a profound prayer amidst threats to his life renewed his faith and resolve to lead the movement. This transformative experience marked the beginning of his lifelong... View Details

Keywords: Spirituality; Civil Rights; Manging Uncertainty; Leadership; Decision Making; Values and Beliefs; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Power and Influence; Alabama

June 2006 (Revised April 2007)
Case

Nephila: Innovation in Catastrophe Risk Insurance

By: Kenneth A. Froot and Michael Heinrich

At the cross-section of capital markets and the catastrophe insurance space stands the hedge fund Nephila. Nephila must decide how best to take advantage of the newly presented market opportunities post hurricanes Katrina, Wilma, and Rita. Nephila has a plethora of... View Details

Keywords: Hedge Fund; Investment Management; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Natural Disasters; Insurance; Capital Markets; Investment Funds; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; Bermuda

Forthcoming
Article

On the Economic Origins of Concerns Over Women’s Chastity

By: Anke Becker

This paper studies the origins and function of customs and norms that intend to keep women from being promiscuous. Using large-scale survey data from more than 100 countries, I test the anthropological theory that a particular form of preindustrial... View Details

Keywords: Infibulation; Female Sexuality; Paternity Uncertainty; Concern About Women's Chastity; Pastoralism; Economic Anthropology; History; Gender; Social Issues; Culture

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April 2013
Teaching Note

Konys, Inc. (TN)

By: Deishin Lee and Tunay Tunca

This case describes the sourcing policy for a consumer electronics company. The company must decide how to structure contracts with their supplier—using a purchase contract, an option contract, or combination of the two. The company can also buy from the spot market.... View Details

Keywords: Contracts; Option Contract; Uncertainty; Sourcing; Supplier Relationship; Supply Chain

October 2014
Supplement

Quiet Logistics (B)

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

This two-part case focuses on how to identify and manage strategic uncertainties in an innovative, entrepreneurial start-up company. In the (A) case, students learn about Quiet Logistics, an e-commerce fulfillment company working with high-end apparel retailers such as... View Details

December 2012 (Revised May 2012)
Supplement

Konys, Inc. (CW)

By: Deishin Lee and Tunay Tunca

Keywords: Supply Chain; Option Contract; Uncertainty; Sourcing; Supplier Relationship; Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Supply Chain Management

2017
Article

Blunted Ambiguity Aversion During Cost-Benefit Decisions in Antisocial Individuals

By: Joshua W. Buckholtz, Uma R. Karmarkar, Shengxuan Ye, Grace M. Brennan and Arielle Baskin-Sommers

Antisocial behavior is often assumed to reflect aberrant risk processing. However, many of the most significant forms of antisocial behavior, including crime, reflect the outcomes of decisions made under conditions of ambiguity rather than risk. While risk and... View Details

Keywords: Ambiguity; Neuroscience; Neuroeconomics; Choice; Psychology; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost vs Benefits; Health Disorders

2023
Working Paper

Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting

By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

A large literature shows that people discount financial rewards hyperbolically instead of exponentially. While discounting of money has been questioned as a measure of time preferences, it continues to be highly relevant in empirical practice and predicts a wide range... View Details

Keywords: Hyperbolic Discounting; Present Bias; Bounded Rationality; Cognitive Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance

Fall 2018
Article

The Value of Fit Information in Online Retail: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

By: Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno

Online channels generate frictions when selling products with nondigital attributes, such as apparel. Customers may be reluctant to purchase products they have not been able to try on, and those customers who do purchase may return products when they do not fit as... View Details

Keywords: Supply Chain Information; Fit Uncertainty; Online Retail; Randomized Field Experiment; Virtual Fitting Room; Digital Retail; Customization and Personalization; Internet and the Web; Value; Performance Improvement; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry

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October 2014 (Revised June 2015)
Case

Quiet Logistics (A)

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

This two-part case focuses on how to identify and manage strategic uncertainties in an innovative, entrepreneurial start-up company. In the (A) case, students learn about Quiet Logistics, an e-commerce fulfillment company working with high-end apparel retailers such as... View Details

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