Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(1,825)
- Faculty Publications (800)
- April 2023
- Article
The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’
In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research... View Details
- March 2023
- Article
Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits
By: Elisabeth Kempf and Oliver Spalt
This paper provides novel evidence suggesting that securities class action lawsuits, a central pillar of the U.S. litigation and corporate governance system, can constitute an obstacle to valuable corporate innovation. We first establish that valuable innovation output... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Complexity and Time
By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details
- February 2023 (Revised June 2023)
- Case
Doing Business in São Paulo, Brazil
By: Hise O. Gibson, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Ruth Costas and Pedro Levindo
The case uses the example of a large investment made by French retail group Carrefour in Brazil to discuss the opportunities and challenges of doing business in the country. It gives readers an overview of Brazil’s economic transformation since its colonial years until... View Details
- 2023
- White Paper
Managing Workforce Risk in an Era of Unpredictability and Disruption
By: Joseph B. Fuller, Michael Griffiths, Reem Janho, Michael Stephan, Carey Oven, Keri Calagna, George Fackler, Robin Jones, Sue Cantrell and Zac Shaw
- February 2023
- Article
OTC Intermediaries
By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market... View Details
- January 2023 (Revised June 2024)
- Case
Adams + Beasley Associates
By: Dennis Campbell and Iuliana Mogosanu
This case illustrates how a strong culture, founder-led SME designed and used a unique performance metric—the job security index—to manage through periods of economic uncertainty. The case centers specifically on how the job security index was used in an interactive... View Details
- January 2023
- Case
Cleave Therapeutics: Taking a Risk on Oncology Drug Discovery
By: Regina Herzlinger and Brian Walker
What should a successful executive (HBS Baker Scholar) assess as her next move as the CEO of a firm with a promising and yet uncertain new drug? Amy Burroughs’ mandate to successfully commercialize Cleave Therapeutics’ drug for a cancer with no current successful... View Details
- January 2023
- Case
Thomas Buberl: Refounding AXA
By: Hubert Joly, Mihir Desai and Amram Migdal
In 2022, AXA and its CEO Thomas Buberl faced new types of challenges, including systemic risks such as climate change, geopolitical instability, public health crises, and social tensions caused by economic risks. AXA was one of the world’s largest insurers. Since... View Details
Keywords: Change; Change Management; Transformation; Transition; Trends; Environmental Management; Climate Change; Ethics; Values and Beliefs; Finance; Insurance; Management; Management Succession; Risk Management; Organizations; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Planning; Strategic Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Society; Human Needs; Social Issues; Strategy; Adaptation; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Insurance Industry; Europe; France; Paris
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Subjective Expected Utility Approach and a Framework for Defining Project Risk in Terms of Novelty and Feasibility—A Response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘Uncertainty and Risk-Taking in Science’
In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research... View Details
- 2023
- Article
Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a... View Details
- January 2023
- Article
Psychological Safety Comes of Age: Observed Themes in an Established Literature
By: Amy C. Edmondson and Derrick P. Bransby
Since its renaissance in the 1990s, psychological safety research has
flourished—a boom motivated by recognition of the challenge of navigating uncertainty and change. Today, its theoretical and practical significance
is amplified by the increasingly complex and... View Details
- December 2022
- Case
To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM
By: Joshua D. Margolis, David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg and James Weber
In December 2022, Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of agribusiness and nutrition giant ADM, considered the next phase of the historic company’s future. Beginning in 2011 when he joined as COO and moving into his tenure as CEO in 2015, Luciano led a transformation of ADM... View Details
Keywords: Agriculture; Leadership; Agribusiness; Acquisition; Business Units; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Cash; Cost of Capital; Cost Management; Profit; Food; Global Range; Innovation Strategy; Leadership Development; Leadership Style; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Risk Management; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Strategic Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Adaptation; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Vertical Integration; Value Creation; Transformation; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Energy Industry; United States; Chicago
- 2022
- Article
Leadership & Overconfidence
By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an... View Details
- December 2022
- Article
Two Representations of Information Structures and Their Comparisons
By: Jerry R. Green and Nancy L. Stokey
This paper compares two representations of informativeness. View Details
- November 2022
- Article
Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains
By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money,... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans
By: Maria Loumioti and George Serafeim
Sustainability-linked loans (i.e., syndicated loans for which pricing is linked to a sustainability performance indicator) have rapidly evolved into a significant private debt product. We find that sustainability-linked lending has been available mostly to borrowers... View Details
- October 2022 (Revised January 2023)
- Case
Century Bank: Closing Time?
By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Bill Kwon
Barry Sloane, second-generation Chairman, President, and CEO of his family’s bank, Century Bank, weighed whether to sell to Eastern Bank. As a small regional bank, Century faced a number of challenging trends, such as digitization and market share decline in the coming... View Details
Keywords: Family Office; Business Exit; Banking; Family; Massachusetts; Boston; United States; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Family Business; Family and Family Relationships; Interpersonal Communication; Decision Making; Finance; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty; Emotions; Banking Industry; Boston; Massachusetts; United States
- October 2022
- Case
Spaceport America, Public Sector Risk-taking, and Political Accountability (A)
By: Matthew Weinzierl, Dava Newman, Rebecca Browder and Angela Acocella
Sitting quietly in the heart of the New Mexico desert in the summer of 2014, Spaceport America (SA) housed little of the activity its supporters anticipated when opening its hangar doors in 2011. Despite $1 million in annual rent from Virgin Galactic, British... View Details
- September 2022
- Article
Tone at the Bottom: Measuring Corporate Misconduct Risk from the Text of Employee Reviews
By: Dennis W. Campbell and Ruidi Shang
This paper examines whether information extracted via text-based statistical methods applied to employee reviews left on the website Glassdoor.com can be used to develop indicators of corporate misconduct risk. We argue that inside information on the incidence of... View Details