Publications

20 Oct 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Financing Risk and Bubbles of Innovation

Keywords: by Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf; Financial Services

June 2023
Article

When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making

August 2004
Article

Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The paper presents an overlapping-generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Development Economics; Voting; Risk and Uncertainty; Cash Flow; Saving; Investment; Economy; Wages

September 2008
Article

Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann

This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States

March 2017
Article

Artful Paltering: The Risks and Rewards of Using Truthful Statements to Mislead Others

By: Todd Rogers, Richard Zeckhauser, F. Gino, Michael I. Norton and Maurice E. Schweitzer

Paltering is the active use of truthful statements to convey a misleading impression. Across two pilot studies and six experiments, we identify paltering as a distinct form of deception. Paltering differs from lying by omission (the passive omission of relevant... View Details

Keywords: Deception; Lying; Paltering; Risk; Ethics; Negotiation Tactics

July–August 2023
Article

Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty

By: Ranjay Gulati

When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning for... View Details

Keywords: Crisis Management; Strategic Planning

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January 1992
Article

Risk Reduction and Umbrella Branding

By: C. A. Montgomery and B. Wernerfelt

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Brands and Branding

Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient... View Details

26 Feb 2008
Working Paper Summaries

Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

Keywords: by Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen; Financial Services

Research Summary

Risk Measurement

By: David E. Bell

David E. Bell has completed research on the measurement of financial risk. The concepts of risk and return are widely used, at least informally, in the appraisal of financial opportunities. Return is typically measured by the expected value of a project, risk by the... View Details

1996
Chapter

Upside Opportunity and Downside Risk

By: Richard F. Meyer

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty

January 2023
Supplement

Organizational Climate Transition Risk Model

By: George Serafeim and Benjamin Maletta

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Transition; Carbon Footprint; Business Analysis; Valuation; Climate Change

Purchase

Research Summary

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details

09 Feb 2012
News

How to Lead Through Uncertainty

05 Jun 2009
Research Event

Business Summit: Niall Ferguson and the Certainty of Uncertainty

Editor's Note: This is a summary of an HBS Business Summit presentation. View a full summary and video of the event on the HBS Centennial Web site linked below. Date of Event: October 13, 2008 Speakers: Niall Ferguson, HBS facultyJohn... View Details

Keywords: Re: John A. Quelch

2015
Working Paper

Risk Preferences and Misconduct: Evidence from Politicians

By: Dylan Minor

When seeking new leaders, business and government organizations alike often need individuals that are less risk averse, or even risk-seeking, in order to improve performance. However, individuals amenable to increased risk-taking may be more likely to engage in... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Behavior; Ethics; Government and Politics; United States

SSRN

When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning... View Details

2023
Working Paper

Interest-Rate Risk and Household Portfolios

By: Sylvain Catherine, Max Miller, James Paron and Natasha Sarin

How are households exposed to interest-rate risk? When rates fall, households face lower future expected returns but those holding long-term assets—disproportionately the wealthy and middle-aged—experience capital gains. We study the hedging demand for long-term assets... View Details

Keywords: Portfolio Choice; Social Security; Interest Rates; Investment Portfolio; Equality and Inequality; Welfare