Publications

September 2008
Article

Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann

This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States

2021
Working Paper

Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk

By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

A confidential dataset with industry-level disaggregation of U.S. cross-border claims and liabilities, shows U.S. securities to be increasingly intermediated by tax-haven-financial-centers (THFC) and less regulated funds. These securities are risky, in... View Details

Keywords: Tax Havens; Financial Centers; Geography Of Flows; Profit Shifting; Tax Avoidance; Risk; Safe Assets; Hetergeneous Firms; Endogenous Entry; Endogenous Monitoring; Regulatory Arbitrage; Assets; Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Capital; Global Range

30 Mar 2023
Video

Generating Breakthrough Therapies: Risk and Reward

December 2009
Article

Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional variation in... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management

05 Jun 2009
Research Event

Business Summit: Niall Ferguson and the Certainty of Uncertainty

Editor's Note: This is a summary of an HBS Business Summit presentation. View a full summary and video of the event on the HBS Centennial Web site linked below. Date of Event: October 13, 2008 Speakers: Niall Ferguson, HBS facultyJohn... View Details

Keywords: Re: John A. Quelch

Research Summary

Risk Measurement

By: David E. Bell

David E. Bell has completed research on the measurement of financial risk. The concepts of risk and return are widely used, at least informally, in the appraisal of financial opportunities. Return is typically measured by the expected value of a project, risk by the... View Details

Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty

When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning... View Details

August 2004
Article

Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The paper presents an overlapping-generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Development Economics; Voting; Risk and Uncertainty; Cash Flow; Saving; Investment; Economy; Wages

June 1992
Article

The Strategic Management of Uncertainty

By: David J. Collis

Keywords: Strategy; Management; Risk and Uncertainty

2015
Working Paper

Risk Preferences and Misconduct: Evidence from Politicians

By: Dylan Minor

When seeking new leaders, business and government organizations alike often need individuals that are less risk averse, or even risk-seeking, in order to improve performance. However, individuals amenable to increased risk-taking may be more likely to engage in... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Behavior; Ethics; Government and Politics; United States

SSRN

January 1992
Article

Risk Reduction and Umbrella Branding

By: C. A. Montgomery and B. Wernerfelt

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Brands and Branding

Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Renewing Knightian Uncertainty: A Pragmatic Prospectus and Demonstration

By: Amar Bhidé

Frank Knight distinguished between 'uncertainty' and 'risk' to specify the true nature of 'profit’, but his specification never caught on and I do not see realistic possibilities for renewing research in this direction. Using uncertainty to analyze the organization and... View Details

Keywords: Knightian Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Profit; Theory; Research

SSRN

26 Feb 2008
Working Paper Summaries

Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

Keywords: by Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen; Financial Services

2021
Article

Internment as a Business Challenge: Political Risk Management and German Multinationals in Colonial India (1914–1947)

By: Christina Lubinski, Valeria Giacomin and Klara Schnitzer

Internment in so-called “enemy countries” was a frequent occurrence in the 20th century and created significant obstacles for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This article focuses on German MNEs in India and shows how they addressed the formidable challenge of the... View Details

Keywords: Internment; Political Risk; International Business; Multinational Firms and Management; Employees; War; History; Outcome or Result; India; Germany

Purchase

04 Feb 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Risk Preferences and Misconduct: Evidence from Politicians

Keywords: by Dylan Minor; Public Administration; Financial Services

March 2003 (Revised June 2003)
Case

Risk Arbitrage: Abbott Labs and Alza (A)

By: George C. Chacko, Randolph B. Cohen, Marc Chennault and Andrew Kuhlman

A hedge fund is trying to decide whether to capitalize on a seeming risk arbitrage opportunity that exists during the Abbott Labs acquisition of ALZA. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Mergers and Acquisitions; Investment Funds