Risk Measurement - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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April 2002
Article

Limited Arbitrage in Mergers and Acquisitions

By: Malcolm Baker and Serkan Savasoglu

A diversified portfolio of risk arbitrage positions produces an abnormal return of 0.6-0.9% per month over the period from 1981 to 1996. We trace these profits to practical limits on risk arbitrage. In our model of risk arbitrage, arbitrageurs' risk-bearing capacity... View Details

Keywords: Arbitrage; Market Efficiency; Mergers and Acquisitions; Profit; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Strategy; Capital; Banking Industry

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February 2010 (Revised May 2010)
Case

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes

The case, in a non-profit project-oriented setting, introduces fundamental risk management principles and processes that are easily applicable to private sector settings. Gentry Lee, senior systems engineer and de-facto chief risk officer, is applying a new... View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Governance; Leadership; Management Practices and Processes; Management Systems; Risk Management; Projects; Aerospace Industry; United States

August 2004 (Revised September 2004)
Background Note

Note on Duration and Convexity

This case explores two measures of price sensitivity: duration and convexity. These measures are normally used to gauge how sensitive a bond's price is to a change in interest-rate levels. However, as concepts, both duration and convexity have wider application:... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Financial Instruments

02 Jun 2022
Video

Risks, Opportunities, and Investments In the Era of Climate Change

March 1988 (Revised June 1993)
Background Note

Leveraged Betas and the Cost of Equity

The objective is to delineate on methodology for measuring the risk associated with financial leverage and estimating its impact on the cost of equity capital. View Details

Keywords: Cost of Capital; Capital Structure; Equity

May 2014
Case

Health Care Accountability: Examples in Cancer Treatment

By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Natalie Kindred

This case is designed to support a discussion of the importance of outcomes evidence in empowering the public to make better health care decisions, the desired level of transparency and accountability for health care providers, and the issues with current measuring and... View Details

Keywords: Accountability; Health Care; Cancer; Cancer Treatment; Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center; Cancer Treatment Centers Of America; Vantage Oncology; Radiology; Risk Adjustment; Treatment Outcomes; Health Care Outcomes; Prostate Cancer; Transparency; Health Care and Treatment; Risk Management; Outcome or Result; Health Industry; United States

29 Apr 2009
News

Economic Recovery

17 May 2012
News

Safety inspections don't hurt businesses-study

Article

Portfolio Value-at-Risk Optimization for Asymmetrically Distributed Asset Returns

By: Joel Goh, Kian Guan Lim, Melvyn Sim and Weina Zhang

We propose a new approach to portfolio optimization by separating asset return distributions into positive and negative half-spaces. The approach minimizes a newly-defined Partitioned Value-at-Risk (PVaR) risk measure by using half-space statistical information. Using... View Details

Keywords: Robust Optimization; Portfolio Management; Value-at-risk; Mathematical Methods; Finance

Research Summary

The Connection Between Volatility and Leverage

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

Professor Siriwardane has co-developed a new econometric model that captures the link between equity volatility and financial leverage, driven by the desire to incorporate the record levels of both leverage and volatility that characterized the 2008 financial crisis... View Details

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

March 2007
Article

Authority, Risk, and Performance Incentives: Evidence from Division Manager Positions inside Firms

By: Julie Wulf

I show that performance incentives vary by decision-making authority of division managers. For division managers with broader authority, i.e., those designated as corporate officers, both the sensitivity of pay to global performance measures and the relative importance... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Performance; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Model; Globalization; Measurement and Metrics; Status and Position; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Divisions

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October 2014
Supplement

Quiet Logistics (B)

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

This two-part case focuses on how to identify and manage strategic uncertainties in an innovative, entrepreneurial start-up company. In the (A) case, students learn about Quiet Logistics, an e-commerce fulfillment company working with high-end apparel retailers such as... View Details

March 1994 (Revised September 1995)
Case

Enron Gas Services

By: Peter Tufano

The CEO of Enron Gas Services (EGS), a subsidiary of the largest U.S. integrated natural gas firm, considers the risks and opportunities of selling a variety of natural gas derivatives, both embedded in gas delivery contracts and as free-standing financial contracts.... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Energy Sources; Financial Services Industry; Energy Industry

October 2014 (Revised June 2015)
Case

Quiet Logistics (A)

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

This two-part case focuses on how to identify and manage strategic uncertainties in an innovative, entrepreneurial start-up company. In the (A) case, students learn about Quiet Logistics, an e-commerce fulfillment company working with high-end apparel retailers such as... View Details

2022
Working Paper

Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand

We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks

April 2023
Article

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Amy Wang Huber

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance

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September 2008
Case

Samoa Tala

By: Joshua D. Coval, Bhagwan Chowdhry and Konark Saxena

This case examines currency risks faced by Microfinance Institutions, and evaluates strategies to hedge them in countries with pegged currency regimes and no derivatives markets. An MFI based in Western Samoa borrows in different currencies like the US dollar and the... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Currency Exchange Rate; Microfinance; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry; Samoa

February 2007 (Revised October 2007)
Case

BASIX

By: Shawn A. Cole and Peter Tufano

BASIX, an Indian microfinance corporation, must decide whether to continue to sell weather insurance to its clients. A brand-new financial product, weather insurance pays if measured rainfall during the growing season falls below a pre-specified limit. Mr. Sattaiah,... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Microfinance; Insurance; Risk Management; Banking Industry; India

2021
Working Paper

Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power

By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford

Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on... View Details

Keywords: Bank Deposits; Market Power; Net Interest Margin (NIM); Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty

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