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      • Faculty Publications  (147)

      Risk MeasurementRemove Risk Measurement →

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      • April 2012 (Revised February 2017)
      • Case

      Dovernet

      By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred
      This case illustrates the implications of using stringent performance measurement systems to create performance pressure, motivate employee achievement, and sharpen a firm's competitiveness. It opens by describing the downsides of the ruthlessly competitive culture at... View Details
      Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Information Technology; Competitive Advantage; Decision Choices and Conditions; Organizational Culture; Performance Evaluation; Compensation and Benefits; Web Services Industry; Information Technology Industry; Vancouver
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      Simons, Robert, and Natalie Kindred. "Dovernet." Harvard Business School Case 112-061, April 2012. (Revised February 2017.)
      • Spring 2012
      • Article

      The Need for Sector-Specific Materiality and Sustainability Reporting Standards

      By: Robert G. Eccles, Michael P. Krzus, Jean Rogers and George Serafeim
      Even though the supply of sustainability information has increased considerably in the last decade, companies are still failing to disclose material information in a comparable format. We believe this has two downsides. On the one hand, companies are not adequately... View Details
      Keywords: Sustainability; Reporting; Standard Setting; Regulation; Environmental Sustainability; Accounting; Standards; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Corporate Disclosure; Competitive Advantage; Capital Markets; Accounting Industry; United States
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      Eccles, Robert G., Michael P. Krzus, Jean Rogers, and George Serafeim. "The Need for Sector-Specific Materiality and Sustainability Reporting Standards." Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 24, no. 2 (Spring 2012): 65–71.
      • March 2012
      • Article

      The Incentive Bubble

      By: Mihir Desai
      The past three decades have seen American capitalism quietly transformed by a single, powerful idea—that financial markets are a suitable tool for measuring performance and structuring compensation. Stock instruments for managers, high-powered incentive contracts for... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Systems; Financial Markets; Executive Compensation; Motivation and Incentives; Corporate Governance; Equality and Inequality; Human Capital; United States
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      Desai, Mihir. "The Incentive Bubble." Harvard Business Review 90, no. 3 (March 2012).
      • January – March 2012
      • Article

      Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

      By: Luis M. Viceira
      This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
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      Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
      • 2012
      • Article

      The Excess Burden of Government Indecision

      By: Francisco J. Gomes, Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Luis M. Viceira
      Governments are known for procrastinating when it comes to resolving painful policy problems. Whatever the political motives for waiting to decide, procrastination distorts economic decisions relative to what would arise with early policy resolution. In so doing, it... View Details
      Keywords: Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Retirement; Policy; Government and Politics
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      Gomes, Francisco J., Laurence J. Kotlikoff, and Luis M. Viceira. "The Excess Burden of Government Indecision." Tax Policy and the Economy 26 (2012): 125–163.
      • June 2011
      • Article

      Implicit Voice Theories: Taken-for-granted Rules of Self-censorship at Work

      By: J. R. Detert and Amy C. Edmondson
      This article examines, in a series of four studies, the nature and impact of implicit voice theories-largely taken-for-granted beliefs about when and why speaking up at work is risky or inappropriate. In Study 1, qualitative data from 190 interviews conducted in a... View Details
      Keywords: Spoken Communication; Interpersonal Communication; Employees; Managerial Roles; Organizational Culture; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior
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      Detert, J. R., and Amy C. Edmondson. "Implicit Voice Theories: Taken-for-granted Rules of Self-censorship at Work." Academy of Management Journal 54, no. 3 (June 2011): 461–488.
      • June 2011
      • Article

      The Paradox of Excellence

      By: Thomas J. DeLong and Sara DeLong
      Why is it that so many smart, ambitious professionals are less productive and satisfied than they could be? We argue that it's often because they're afraid to demonstrate any sign of weakness. They're reluctant to ask important questions or try new... View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Innovation and Invention; Strength and Weakness; Performance Productivity; Risk and Uncertainty; Motivation and Incentives; Satisfaction
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      DeLong, Thomas J., and Sara DeLong. "The Paradox of Excellence." Harvard Business Review 89, no. 6 (June 2011).
      • April 2011
      • Case

      Porcini's Pronto: "Great Italian cuisine without the wait!"

      By: James L. Heskett and Richard Luecke
      Porcini's Inc. operates a chain of 23 full-service restaurants located near shopping malls and downtown areas in the northeastern United States. Known for providing excellent service, Porcini's serves high-quality Italian cuisine made from fresh ingredients. Looking... View Details
      Keywords: Franchising; Syndication; Quantitative Analysis; Performance Measurement; Human Resource Management; Incentives; Motivation; Consumer Behavior; Measurement and Metrics; Quality; Customer Value and Value Chain; Selection and Staffing; Expansion; Business Growth and Maturation; Service Delivery; Franchise Ownership; Customer Focus and Relationships; Product Marketing; Food and Beverage Industry; Service Industry; Northeastern United States
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      Heskett, James L., and Richard Luecke. Porcini's Pronto: "Great Italian cuisine without the wait!". Harvard Business School Brief Case 114-277, April 2011.
      • March 2011
      • Article

      Accounting Scholarship That Advances Professional Knowledge and Practice

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Recent accounting scholarship has used statistical analysis on asset prices, financial reports and disclosures, laboratory experiments, and surveys of practice. The research has studied the interface among accounting information, capital markets, standard setters, and... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Asset Pricing; Risk Management; Surveys; Capital Markets; Measurement and Metrics; Valuation; Fair Value Accounting; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Financial Reporting
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Accounting Scholarship That Advances Professional Knowledge and Practice." Accounting Review 86, no. 2 (March 2011): 367–383.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Accounting Scholarship that Advances Professional Knowledge and Practice

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Recent accounting scholarship has used statistical analysis on asset prices, financial reports and disclosures, laboratory experiments, and surveys of practice. The research has studied the interface among accounting information, capital markets, standard setters, and... View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Business Education; Information; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; Business Processes; Performance Improvement; Practice
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Accounting Scholarship that Advances Professional Knowledge and Practice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-043, October 2010.
      • June 2010 (Revised January 2017)
      • Teaching Note

      Continental Media Group: Business Highlights

      By: Robert Simons
      Teaching Note for 110087. View Details
      Keywords: Execution; Management Control Systems; Performance Measurement; Informal Management; Emergent Strategy; Management; Profit; System; Opportunities; Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Simons, Robert. "Continental Media Group: Business Highlights." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 110-090, June 2010. (Revised January 2017.)
      • February 2010 (Revised May 2010)
      • Case

      Jet Propulsion Laboratory

      By: Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes
      The case, in a non-profit project-oriented setting, introduces fundamental risk management principles and processes that are easily applicable to private sector settings. Gentry Lee, senior systems engineer and de-facto chief risk officer, is applying a new... View Details
      Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Governance; Leadership; Management Practices and Processes; Management Systems; Risk Management; Projects; Aerospace Industry; United States
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      Kaplan, Robert S., and Anette Mikes. "Jet Propulsion Laboratory." Harvard Business School Case 110-031, February 2010. (Revised May 2010.)
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability: A New Framework

      By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
      This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Economy; Financial Condition; Central Banking; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; System Shocks
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      Gray, Dale F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability: A New Framework." In Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking. Vol. 15, edited by Alfaro A. Rodrigo and Cifuentes S. Rodrigo., 2010.
      • October 2009
      • Case

      Low-k Dielectrics at IBM

      By: Willy C. Shih and Giovanni Carraro
      Innovations at the frontiers of technology carry enormous risk of making wrong choices. This case examines a decision made by IBM in its semiconductor process technology strategy: a material to use as a dielectric insulator in its leading edge silicon chip technology.... View Details
      Keywords: Competency and Skills; Decision Choices and Conditions; Technological Innovation; Product Development; Science; Creativity; Semiconductor Industry; United States
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      Shih, Willy C., and Giovanni Carraro. "Low-k Dielectrics at IBM." Harvard Business School Case 610-023, October 2009.
      • September 2009 (Revised May 2011)
      • Case

      Acumen Fund: Measurement in Impact Investing (A)

      By: Alnoor Ebrahim and V. Kasturi Rangan
      Acumen Fund is a global venture capital firm with a dual purpose: it looks for a return on its investments, and it also seeks entrepreneurial solutions to global poverty. This case examines Acumen's new projects in Kenya. The organization's investment committee and its... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Venture Capital; Investment Return; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Risk Management; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Government Relations; Social Enterprise; Financial Services Industry; Kenya
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      Ebrahim, Alnoor, and V. Kasturi Rangan. "Acumen Fund: Measurement in Impact Investing (A)." Harvard Business School Case 310-011, September 2009. (Revised May 2011.)
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

      By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton
      The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details
      Keywords: Housing; Mortgages; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry; United States
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      Khandani, Amir E., Andrew W. Lo, and Robert C. Merton. "Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15362, September 2009.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

      By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton
      The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market-rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities-led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details
      Keywords: Equity; Mortgages; Interest Rates; Price; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; United States
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      Khandani, Amir E., Andrew W. Lo, and Robert C. Merton. "Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-023, September 2009. (Revised July 2010.)
      • May 2009
      • Article

      Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads

      By: Victoria Ivashina
      The paper estimates the cost arising from information asymmetry between the lead bank and members of the lending syndicate. In a lending syndicate, the lead bank retains only a fraction of the loan but acts as the intermediary between the borrower and the syndicate... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Capital; Investment Portfolio; Credit; Diversification; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Ivashina, Victoria. "Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads." Journal of Financial Economics 92, no. 2 (May 2009): 300–319.
      • September 2008
      • Article

      Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann
      This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States
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      Hanson, Samuel G., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Til Schuermann. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification." Journal of Empirical Finance 15, no. 4 (September 2008): 583–612.
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