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      • Faculty Publications  (217)

      Predictive ModelsRemove Predictive Models →

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      • February 2020
      • Article

      Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard

      By: Julian Zlatev, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin and Dale T. Miller
      The motivation to feel moral powerfully guides people’s prosocial behavior. We propose that people’s efforts to preserve their moral self-regard conform to a moral threshold model. This model predicts that people are primarily concerned with whether their... View Details
      Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Perception
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      Zlatev, Julian, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin, and Dale T. Miller. "Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 118, no. 2 (February 2020): 242–253.
      • 2020
      • Conference Presentation

      A Performance-optimized Limb Detection Model Selectively Predicts Behavioral Responses Based on Movement Similarity

      By: X. Zhao, J. De Freitas, L. Tarhan and G. A. Alvarez
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      Zhao, X., J. De Freitas, L. Tarhan, and G. A. Alvarez. "A Performance-optimized Limb Detection Model Selectively Predicts Behavioral Responses Based on Movement Similarity." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Vision Sciences Society, St. Pete Beach, FL, 2020.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Soul and Machine (Learning)

      By: Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu and Hema Yoganarasimhan
      Machine learning is bringing us self-driving cars, improved medical diagnostics, and machine translation, but can it improve marketing decisions? It can. Machine learning models predict extremely well, are scalable to “big data,” and are a natural fit to rich media... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Marketing; AI and Machine Learning
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      Proserpio, Davide, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu, and Hema Yoganarasimhan. "Soul and Machine (Learning)." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-036, September 2019.
      • Article

      Valuing Time Over Money Predicts Happiness After a Major Life Transition: A Preregistered Longitudinal Study of Graduating Students

      By: A.V. Whillans, Lucia Macchia and Elizabeth Dunn
      How does prioritizing time or money shape major life decisions and subsequent well-being? In a preregistered longitudinal study of approximately 1000 graduating university students, respondents who valued time over money chose more intrinsically rewarding activities... View Details
      Keywords: Time Use; Trade-offs; Career Decisions; Time Management; Money; Happiness; Values and Beliefs; Personal Development and Career
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      Whillans, A.V., Lucia Macchia, and Elizabeth Dunn. "Valuing Time Over Money Predicts Happiness After a Major Life Transition: A Preregistered Longitudinal Study of Graduating Students." Science Advances 5, no. 9 (September 2019).
      • July 2019
      • Case

      Autonomous Vehicles: Smooth or Bumpy Ride Ahead?

      By: Elie Ofek and Akhil Waghmare
      In early 2019, transportation was set to undergo a major transformation with the advent of autonomous vehicles (AVs), also referred to as driverless cars, which were nearing completion from an R&D and testing phase. Yet many questions remained open regarding exactly... View Details
      Keywords: Transportation; Technological Innovation; Disruptive Innovation; Transformation; Technology Adoption; Business Model; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Transportation Industry; Auto Industry
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      Ofek, Elie, and Akhil Waghmare. "Autonomous Vehicles: Smooth or Bumpy Ride Ahead?" Harvard Business School Case 520-008, July 2019.
      • February 2019 (Revised August 2019)
      • Case

      KangaTech

      By: Karim R. Lakhani, Patrick J. Ferguson, Sarah Fleischer, Jin Hyun Paik and Steven Randazzo
      On a warm January afternoon in 2019, Steve Saunders, Dave Scerri, Carl Dilena, and Nick Haslam (see Exhibit 1 for biographies), co-founders of KangaTech, wrapped up the latest round of discussions about the future direction of their sports-technology start-up. Focused... View Details
      Keywords: Startup; Technology Commercialization; Prototype; Business Startups; Technological Innovation; Sports; Health; Commercialization; Research and Development; Decision Making; Growth and Development Strategy; Technology Industry; Sports Industry; Health Industry; Australia
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      Lakhani, Karim R., Patrick J. Ferguson, Sarah Fleischer, Jin Hyun Paik, and Steven Randazzo. "KangaTech." Harvard Business School Case 619-049, February 2019. (Revised August 2019.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

      By: Eva Ascarza
      The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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      Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-091, February 2019. (Revised May 2020. Accepted at the Journal of Marketing Research.)
      • 2019
      • Article

      Fair Algorithms for Learning in Allocation Problems

      By: Hadi Elzayn, Shahin Jabbari, Christopher Jung, Michael J Kearns, Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth and Zachary Schutzman
      Settings such as lending and policing can be modeled by a centralized agent allocating a scarce resource (e.g. loans or police officers) amongst several groups, in order to maximize some objective (e.g. loans given that are repaid, or criminals that are apprehended).... View Details
      Keywords: Allocation Problems; Algorithms; Fairness; Learning
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      Elzayn, Hadi, Shahin Jabbari, Christopher Jung, Michael J Kearns, Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth, and Zachary Schutzman. "Fair Algorithms for Learning in Allocation Problems." Proceedings of the Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (2019): 170–179.
      • Article

      Faithful and Customizable Explanations of Black Box Models

      By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana and Jure Leskovec
      As predictive models increasingly assist human experts (e.g., doctors) in day-to-day decision making, it is crucial for experts to be able to explore and understand how such models behave in different feature subspaces in order to know if and when to trust them. To... View Details
      Keywords: Interpretable Machine Learning; Black Box Models; Decision Making; Framework
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      Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Ece Kamar, Rich Caruana, and Jure Leskovec. "Faithful and Customizable Explanations of Black Box Models." Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society (2019).
      • January 2019
      • Article

      Making Moves Matter: Experimental Evidence on Incentivizing Bureaucrats Through Performance-Based Postings

      By: Adnan Q. Khan, Asim Ijaz Khwaja and Benjamin A. Olken
      Bureaucracies often post staff to better or worse locations, ostensibly to provide incentives. Yet we know little about whether this works, with heterogeneity in preferences over postings impacting effectiveness. We propose a performance-ranked serial dictatorship... View Details
      Keywords: Serial Dictatorship Mechanism; Employment; Geographic Location; Motivation and Incentives; Performance
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      Khan, Adnan Q., Asim Ijaz Khwaja, and Benjamin A. Olken. "Making Moves Matter: Experimental Evidence on Incentivizing Bureaucrats Through Performance-Based Postings." American Economic Review 109, no. 1 (January 2019): 237–270.
      • October 2018
      • Article

      The Operational Value of Social Media Information

      By: Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang
      While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Information; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Media
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      Cui, Ruomeng, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno, and Dennis J. Zhang. "The Operational Value of Social Media Information." Special Issue on Big Data in Supply Chain Management. Production and Operations Management 27, no. 10 (October 2018): 1749–1774.
      • Article

      Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects

      By: Juan Alcácer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida
      Strategy aims at understanding the differential effects of firms’ actions on performance. However, standard regression models estimate only the average effects of these actions across firms. Our paper discusses how random coefficient models (RCMs) may generate new... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Research; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Performance
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      Alcácer, Juan, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk, and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida. "Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects." Strategy Science 3, no. 3 (September 2018): 481–553.
      • September 26, 2018
      • Article

      Ownership and Power Structure: Together at Last

      By: Laura Alfaro, Nicholas Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      Economists have largely ignored the deep interdependency between integration and delegation. This column describes a new theory of integration and delegation choices aimed at shedding light on how these distinct elements of organizational design interact. Contrary to... View Details
      Keywords: Power; Organisational Design; Economics; Ownership; Organizational Design
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      Alfaro, Laura, Nicholas Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew Newman, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Ownership and Power Structure: Together at Last." Vox, CEPR Policy Portal (September 26, 2018).
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-026, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018 (Revised April 2019)
      • Supplement

      Chateau Winery (B): Supervised Learning

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case builds directly on “Chateau Winery (A).” In this case, Bill Booth, marketing manager of a regional wine distributor, shifts to supervised learning techniques to try to predict which deals he should offer to customers based on the purchasing behavior of those... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Clustering; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Marketing; Analysis
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Chateau Winery (B): Supervised Learning." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-024, August 2018. (Revised April 2019.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Case

      LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 119-020, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) case. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds two tree-based models using historical LendingClub data to predict, with some probability, whether borrower will repay or default on his loan.
      ... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Decision Trees; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-021, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details
      Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-022, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • August 2018
      • Article

      Extrapolation and Bubbles

      By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
      We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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      Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Extrapolation and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 2 (August 2018): 203–227.
      • June 2018
      • Article

      The Power of Workplace Rewards: Using Self-Determination Theory to Understand Why Reward Satisfaction Matters for Workers Around the World

      By: Anais Thibault Landry and A.V. Whillans
      How can workplace rewards promote employee well-being and engagement? To answer these questions, we utilized self-determination theory to examine whether reward satisfaction predicted employee well-being, job satisfaction, intrinsic motivation, and affective... View Details
      Keywords: Workplace; Rewards; Motivation; Employees; Satisfaction; Motivation and Incentives; Welfare
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      Landry, Anais Thibault, and A.V. Whillans. "The Power of Workplace Rewards: Using Self-Determination Theory to Understand Why Reward Satisfaction Matters for Workers Around the World." Compensation & Benefits Review 50, no. 3 (June 2018): 123–148.
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