Publications

July 2023 (Revised July 2023)
Background Note

Generative AI Value Chain

By: Andy Wu and Matt Higgins

Generative AI refers to a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that can create new content (e.g., text, image, or audio) in response to a prompt from a user. ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude are examples of text generating AIs, and DALL-E, Midjourney, and Stable Diffusion are... View Details

Keywords: AI; Artificial Intelligence; Model; Hardware; Data Centers; AI and Machine Learning; Applications and Software; Analytics and Data Science; Value

Article

Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy

By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca

The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to... View Details

Keywords: User-generated Content; Operations; Tournaments; Policy-making; Machine Learning; Online Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; City; Infrastructure; Business Processes; Government and Politics

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Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler

We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details

Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction

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June 2021
Technical Note

Introduction to Linear Regression

By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This technical note introduces (from an applied point of view) the theory and application of simple and multiple linear regression. The motivation for the model is introduced, as well as how to interpret the summary output with regard to prediction and statistical... View Details

Keywords: Linear Regression; Regression; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk and Uncertainty; Theory; Compensation and Benefits; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science

2018
Working Paper

Measuring Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca

We demonstrate that data from digital platforms such as Yelp have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification, both by providing data in close to real time (i.e., nowcasting and forecasting) and by providing additional context about how the local... View Details

Keywords: Geographic Location; Local Range; Transition; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction

2010
Working Paper

The Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services: An Economic Analysis

By: Mohammad Arzaghi, Ernst R. Berndt, James C. Davis and Alvin J. Silk

We address a longstanding puzzle surrounding the unbundling of services occurring over several decades in the U.S. advertising agency industry: What accounts for the shift from bundling to unbundling of services and the slow pace of change? Using Evans and Salinger's... View Details

Keywords: Advertising; Change; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Marketing Strategy; Media; Service Operations; Agency Theory; Mathematical Methods; Advertising Industry; United States

July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
Background Note

Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery

Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Profit; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry

September 2010
Article

Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman

Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details

Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States

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2016
Working Paper

The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand

By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman

To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details

Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Consumer Behavior; Service Delivery; Performance Expectations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Service Industry

SSRN

2021
Working Paper

Time and the Value of Data

By: Ehsan Valavi, Joel Hestness, Newsha Ardalani and Marco Iansiti

Managers often believe that collecting more data will continually improve the accuracy of their machine learning models. However, we argue in this paper that when data lose relevance over time, it may be optimal to collect a limited amount of recent data instead of... View Details

Keywords: Economics Of AI; Machine Learning; Non-stationarity; Perishability; Value Depreciation; Analytics and Data Science; Value

SSRN

September 2023 (Revised October 2024)
Case

Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus

By: Mark Egan and Peter Tufano

In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)—a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,—was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc,... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Finance; Forecasting; Insurance; Risk Measurement; Climate Change; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance Industry; United States

2011
Chapter

Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States