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  • All HBS Web  (2,963)
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    • Research  (2,196)
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  • All HBS Web  (2,963)
    • News  (476)
    • Research  (2,196)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,424)
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  • 1996
  • Other Unpublished Work

Testing for Structural Change in the Predictability of Asset Returns

By: Luis M. Viceira
Citation
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Viceira, Luis M. "Testing for Structural Change in the Predictability of Asset Returns." 1996.
  • 10 Aug 2013 - 13 Aug 2013
  • Conference Presentation

Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors

By: Frank Nagle
Citation
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Nagle, Frank. "Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors." Paper presented at the Academy of Management Annual Meeting, Lake Buena Vista, FL, August 10–13, 2013.
  • October 2023
  • Teaching Note

Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

By: Jonas Heese and Jung Koo Kang
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 123-042. View Details
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Heese, Jonas, and Jung Koo Kang. "Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 124-039, October 2023.
  • November 2023
  • Article

Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success

By: Yael Millgram, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey and Amit Goldenberg
People’s ability to regulate emotions is crucial to healthy emotional functioning. One overlooked aspect in emotion-regulation research is that knowledge about the source of emotions can vary across situations and individuals, which could impact people’s ability to... View Details
Keywords: Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Well-being
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Millgram, Yael, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey, and Amit Goldenberg. "Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success." Psychological Science 34, no. 11 (November 2023): 1244–1255.
  • December 2023
  • Supplement

Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

By: Jonas Heese and Jung Koo Kang
Citation
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Heese, Jonas, and Jung Koo Kang. "Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 124-708, December 2023.
  • Article

Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Stephen H. Bach and Jure Leskovec
Citation
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Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Stephen H. Bach, and Jure Leskovec. "Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction." Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 22nd (2016).
  • 15 Aug 2016
  • Research & Ideas

Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction

investments are once again declining. Reasoning that today’s tech entrepreneurs and investors might value a history lesson, I’ve published Speed Trap as an ebook, which is downloadable for free in PDF format, and available in the iBooks Store for free and in the Kindle... View Details
Keywords: by Thomas R. Eisenmann; Technology
  • 2023
  • Chapter

Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making

By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details
Keywords: Equality and Inequality
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Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making." In The Inequality Reader: Contemporary and Foundational Readings in Race, Class, and Gender. 3rd edition, edited by David B. Grusky and Szonja Szelényi. Routledge, forthcoming.
  • 9 May 2013 - 11 May 2013
  • Conference Presentation

Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors

By: Frank Nagle
Citation
Related
Nagle, Frank. "Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors." Paper presented at the Trans-Atlantic Doctoral Conference, London Business School, London, UK, May 9–11, 2013.
  • 31 May 2023
  • Research & Ideas

With Predictive Analytics, Companies Can Tap the Ultimate Opportunity: Customers’ Routines

used that information to predict how often and when a customer may request a car as part of their routine. The model could drill into specific kinds of routines, too: The model identifies seven clusters of typical ridesharing routines in... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Transportation
  • August 1999
  • Article

Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

By: D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman
Keywords: Investment; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction
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Moore, D. A., T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox, and M. H. Bazerman. "Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, no. 2 (August 1999): 95–114.
  • 1983
  • Chapter

Analyzing Competitors: Predicting Competitor Behavior and Formulating Offensive and Defensive Strategy

By: M. E. Porter
Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior
Citation
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Porter, M. E. "Analyzing Competitors: Predicting Competitor Behavior and Formulating Offensive and Defensive Strategy." In Policy, Strategy, and Implementation, edited by Milton Leontiades. Random House, 1983.
  • June 7, 1990
  • Article

New Trading Practices and the Short-run Predictability of the S&P 500

By: André Perold, Kenneth A. Froot and James F. Gammill Jr.
Keywords: Institutional Investing; Market Efficiency; Equities; Stock Market; Indexing; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance
Citation
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Perold, André, Kenneth A. Froot, and James F. Gammill Jr. "New Trading Practices and the Short-run Predictability of the S&P 500." Market Volatility and Investor Confidence: Report to the Board of Directors of the New York Stock Exchange, Inc. (June 7, 1990): G1: 1–27.
  • August 2016
  • Article

The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John
Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details
Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction
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Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Leslie K. John. "The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 53, no. 4 (August 2016): 597–607.
  • 2013
  • Article

Where Not to Eat? Improving Public Policy by Predicting Hygiene Inspections Using Online Reviews

By: Jun Seok Kang, Polina Kuznetsova, Yejin Choi and Michael Luca
Restaurant hygiene inspections are often cited as a success story of public disclosure. Hygiene grades influence customer decisions and serve as an accountability system for restaurants. However, cities (which are responsible for inspections) have limited resources to... View Details
Keywords: Safety; Food; Governance Compliance; Mathematical Methods; Applications and Software; Public Administration Industry; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
Citation
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Kang, Jun Seok, Polina Kuznetsova, Yejin Choi, and Michael Luca. "Where Not to Eat? Improving Public Policy by Predicting Hygiene Inspections Using Online Reviews." Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (2013): 1443–1448.
  • 2016
  • Chapter

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Keywords: Investment Return; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation
Citation
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Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Chap. 10 in Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, edited by Pietro Veronesi, 191–209. Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
  • December 2021
  • Article

Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
Citation
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Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
  • 2004
  • Book

Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change

By: C. M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony and Erik A Roth
Keywords: Theory; Innovation and Invention; Change; Business Ventures
Citation
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Related
Christensen, C. M., Scott D. Anthony, and Erik A Roth. Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004.
  • January 2021
  • Article

How Personality and Policy Predict Pandemic Behavior: Understanding Sheltering-in-Place in 55 Countries at the Onset of COVID-19

By: Friedrich M. Götz, Andrés Gvirtz, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz
The spread of COVID-19 within any given country or community at the onset of the pandemic depended in part on the sheltering-in-place rate of its citizens. The pandemic led us to revisit one of psychology’s most fundamental and most basic questions in a high-stakes... View Details
Keywords: COVID; COVID-19; Pandemic; Shelter-in-place; Personality; Government; Interactionism; Health Pandemics; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Policy; Governance Compliance
Citation
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Götz, Friedrich M., Andrés Gvirtz, Adam D. Galinsky, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "How Personality and Policy Predict Pandemic Behavior: Understanding Sheltering-in-Place in 55 Countries at the Onset of COVID-19." American Psychologist 76, no. 1 (January 2021): 39–49.
  • May 2006
  • Article

Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models

By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Customers
Citation
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Related
Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
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