Publications

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September 2004 (Revised February 2007)
Case

Hedging Currency Risks at AIFS

By: Mihir A. Desai, Vincent Dessain and Anders Sjoman

The American Institute for Foreign Studies (AIFS) organizes study abroad programs and cultural exchanges for American students. The firm's revenues are mainly in U.S. dollars, but most of its costs are in eurodollars and British pounds. The company's controllers review... View Details

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Investment Funds; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Currency; Currency Exchange Rate; Education Industry; North and Central America

December 2010
Background Note

Risk and Reward in Venture Capital

By: William A. Sahlman

This note describes the payoff structure of investment in individual venture capital–backed companies and in venture capital portfolios. Venture Capital investments are characterized by high failure rate (0ver 50%) and a small number of given successes (greater than... View Details

Keywords: Capital Markets; Venture Capital; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science; Failure; Performance; Information Technology

2021
Working Paper

Limits to Bank Deposit Market Power

By: Juliane Begenau and Erik Stafford

Claims about the market power of bank deposits in the banking literature are numerous and far reaching. Recently, a causal narrative has emerged in the banking literature: market power in bank deposits, measured as imperfect pass-through of short-term market rates on... View Details

Keywords: Bank Deposits; Market Power; Net Interest Margin (NIM); Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty

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2004
Working Paper

Contract Rights and Risk Aversion: Foreign Banks and the Mexican Economy, 1997-2004

By: Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio

In 1997 Mexico allowed foreign banks unrestricted entry to the market. What impact did foreign mergers and acquisitions have on Mexico's banks? We find that all banks in Mexico have become increasingly risk averse, and that foreign banks are even more so. Foreign banks... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Market Entry and Exit; Globalization; Microeconomics; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Mexico

24 Mar 2008
Research & Ideas

Reducing Risk with Online Advertising

savings from imposing a delay and deterring fraud to pay a substantial bonus, more than the interest rate times the amount at issue. You can pay them a bigger bonus than that. So in principle they should... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Video Game; Web Services

2009
Working Paper

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details

Keywords: Housing; Mortgages; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry; United States

2017
Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

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November 2012 (Revised April 2013)
Case

Perspectives on the Great Depression

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

The case assembles texts giving perspectives on the Great Depression by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz and Ben Bernanke. This should allow for a discussion of the role of fiscal and monetary policies in reaching and... View Details

Keywords: Great Depression; Keynesian Multiplier; Monetary Policy; Zero Lower Bound Of Interest Rates; Role Of Expectations In Macroeconomics; Performance Expectations; History; Policy; Interest Rates; Macroeconomics

18 Jun 2018
Working Paper Summaries

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy

Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam

February 21, 2011
Article

How to Refocus U.S. Mortgage Interest Relief

By: Robert C. Pozen

Keywords: Interest Rates; Mortgages

09 Nov 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Securities Litigation Risk for Foreign Companies Listed in the US

Keywords: by Beiting Cheng, Suraj Srinivasan & Gwen Yu

June 1985 (Revised August 1994)
Background Note

U.S. Government Debt Market and the Structure of Interest Rates, The

Concerns U.S. Government Debt Market and various conventions used to depict the structure of interest rates. View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Bonds; Interest Rates

2021
Article

Public Health Risks Arising from Food Supply Chains: Challenges and Opportunities

By: Lu Chen, Donovan Guittieres, Retsef Levi, Elisabeth Paulson, Georgia Perakis, Nicholas Renegar and Stacy Springs

Safe, healthy, and resilient food supply chains are essential to ensuring the livelihood and well-being of humans and societies, as well as local and global economies. However, the ability to provide and sustain access to nutritious and safe food continues to be a... View Details

Keywords: Food Safety; Adulteration; Malnutrition; Supply Chain; Health; Government Administration; Food and Beverage Industry

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January 2025
Technical Note

AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix

By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart

This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details

Keywords: Reliability; Confusion Matrix; AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Performance