Publications

November 2007
Background Note

Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman

By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford

Describes a practical method for asset allocation that is more robust to estimation errors than the traditional implementation of mean-variance optimization with sample means and covariances. The Bayesian inspired Black-Litterman model is described after introducing... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Portfolio; Mathematical Methods

2007
Working Paper

Choice, Rationality and Welfare Measurement

By: Jerry R. Green and Daniel A. Hojman

We present a method for evaluating the welfare of a decision maker, based on observed choice data. Unlike the standard economic theory of revealed preference, our method can be used whether or not the observed choices are rational. Paralleling the standard theory we... View Details

Keywords: Welfare Economics; Behavioral Economics; Psychology; Decision Making; Economics; Voting

2007
Working Paper

The 'Fees → Savings' Link, or Purchasing Fifty Pounds of Pasta

By: Michael I. Norton and Leonard Lee

Many consumers have had the experience of entering discount membership clubs to make a few purchases, only to leave with enough pasta to outlast a nuclear winter. We suggest that the presence of membership fees can lead consumers to infer a "fees → savings" link,... View Details

Keywords: Price; Profit; Spending; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry

Article

Aid in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: Inferences of Secondary Emotions and Intergroup Helping

By: A.J.C. Cuddy, M. Rock and M. I. Norton

November 2006
Article

Patent Citations as a Measure of Knowledge Flows: The Influence of Examiner Citations

By: Juan Alcacer and Michelle Gittelman

Analysis of patent citations is a core methodology in the study of knowledge diffusion. However, citations made by patent examiners have not been separately reported, adding unknown noise to the data. We leverage a recent change in the reporting of patent data showing... View Details

Keywords: Patents; Knowledge Sharing; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Information Technology; Prejudice and Bias; Change

2005
Working Paper

Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler

A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details

Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods

Article

Little Patents and Big Secrets: Managing Intellectual Property

By: James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao

Exploitation of an innovation commonly requires some disclosure of enabling knowledge (e.g., to obtain a patent or induce complementary investment). When property rights offer only limited protection, the value of the disclosure is offset by the increased threat of... View Details

Keywords: Patents; Management; Innovation and Invention; Knowledge; Rights; Value; Information; Corporate Disclosure

September 2002 (Revised March 2003)
Technical Note

Technical Note on Equity-Linked Consideration, Part 2: Announcement Effects

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

The announcement of merger or acquisition conveys new information to the capital markets. Shareholders and portfolio managers assess the news and trade on the basis of their new appraisals of value. Thus, from the actual Pstks of the two companies one can infer from... View Details

Keywords: Announcements; Price; Acquisition; Business and Shareholder Relations

February 1994
Background Note

Causal Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Discusses what causation is and what one can (and cannot) learn about causation from observational (nonexperimental) data. View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Analytics and Data Science; Interests

August 1993
Article

Transaction Cost Theory: Inferences from Clinical Field Research

By: Frank V. Cespedes

Keywords: Cost; Theory; Research; Health

August 1993
Article

Transaction Cost Theory: Inferences from Clinical Field Research on Downstream Vertical Integration

By: V. K. Rangan, E. R. Corey and F. V. Cespedes

Keywords: Theory; Health; Vertical Integration

July 1991
Case

Managing the U.S. Dollar in the 1980s

By: W. Carl Kester and Richard P. Melnick

Provides numerical data and alternative explanations concerning the U.S. dollar's rise and subsequent fall in value from 1981 through 1987. Students are challenged to study the evidence and make their own inferences concerning the dollar's movements and the degree of... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; Theory; United States

November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
Background Note

Sampling and Statistical Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

September 1990
Article

Competition on Many Fronts: A Stackelberg Signaling Equilibrium

By: Jerry R. Green and Jean-Jacques Laffont

An economic agent, the incumbent, is operating in many environments at the same time. These may be locations, markets, or specific activities. He is informed of the particular conditions relevant to each situation. His action in each case is observable by another... View Details

January 1989 (Revised July 1991)
Case

Bank for International Development, Software Case

By: W. Carl Kester and Timothy A. Luehrman

A hypothetical case in which an assistant treasurer of a supranational bank is asked to determine in which currencies it has been cheaper ex post to borrow. An integral part of the case is a Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet containing monthly data on yen and dollar interest... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Interest Rates; International Finance; Relationships; Currency; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Inflation and Deflation

1979
Dissertation

Inference in Partially Identified Models

By: Dutch Leonard

Keywords: Mathematical Methods

Forthcoming
Article

An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces

By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton

It has long been a mantra of marketing practice that, particularly in low-involvement situations, spokespeople should be physically attractive. This paper suggests there is a higher probability of gaining fame and influence (i.e., celebrity potential) than is captured... View Details

Keywords: Personal Characteristics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing