Publications

March 2021
Article

Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment

By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details

Keywords: Visual Perception; Bayesian Modeling; Perception; Judgments

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2015
Working Paper

Measurement Errors of Expected-Return Proxies and the Implied Cost of Capital

By: Charles C.Y. Wang

Despite their popularity as proxies of expected returns, the implied cost of capital's (ICC) measurement error properties are relatively unknown. Through an in-depth analysis of a popular implementation of ICCs by Gebhardt, Lee, and Swaminathan (2001) (GLS), I show... View Details

Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Cost of Capital; Investment Return

SSRN

November 2015
Article

Why Organizations Don't Learn: Our Traditional Obsessions—Success, Taking Action, Fitting In, and Relying on Experts—Undermine Continuous Improvement

By: F. Gino and B. Staats

For any enterprise to be competitive, continuous learning and improvement are key—but not always easy to achieve. After a decade of research, the authors have concluded that four biases stand in the way: we focus too heavily on success, are too quick to act, try too... View Details

Keywords: Organizations; Learning

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May 1990 (Revised September 1994)
Background Note

Note on Financial Reporting Strategy and Analysis When Managers Have Proprietary Information

By: Krishna G. Palepu

Provides a framework that helps explain these real-world observations about accounting and financial statement analysis. When managers have superior information on firms' strategies, and when investors suspect that managers have incentives not to fully disclose this... View Details

Keywords: Financial Reporting; Strategy; Knowledge Management

Educators

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11 Jun 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Measurement Errors of Expected Returns Proxies and the Implied Cost of Capital

Keywords: by Charles C.Y. Wang

17 Aug 2020
Research & Ideas

What the Stockdale Paradox Tells Us About Crisis Leadership

“perceptual narrowing” (hyperfocus on the task at hand with no attention to the environment), and behavioral conformity. As a leader, you can help fight these cognitive biases by being aware of them.... View Details

Keywords: by Boris Groysberg and Robin Abrahams

2023
Working Paper

The Irredeemability of the Past: Determinants of Reconciliation and Revenge in Post-Conflict Settings

By: Kristen Kao, Kristin Fabbe and Michael Bang Petersen

In the aftermath of violent conflict, identifying former enemy collaborators versus innocent bystanders forced to flee violence is difficult. In post-conflict settings, internally displaced persons (IDPs) risk becoming stigmatized and face difficulties... View Details

Keywords: Conflict and Resolution; War; Refugees; Moral Sensibility; Behavior; Public Opinion; Lawfulness; Iraq

Article

Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses

By: Kaivalya Rawal and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision-making, there has been a lot of interest in developing algorithms which can provide recourses to affected individuals. While developing such tools is important, it is even more critical to... View Details

Keywords: Predictive Models; Decision Making; Framework; Mathematical Methods

October 2013
Article

How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies

By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya

While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input... View Details

Keywords: Supply Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods

2017
Article

Refugees Misdirected: How Information, Misinformation and Rumors Shape Refugees’ Access to Fundamental Rights

By: Melissa Carlson, Laura Jakli and Katerina Linos

The global refugee regime represents one of the few generous commitments governments offer to outsiders. Indeed, few persons fleeing armed conflict actually claim international protection upon first arriving in Europe, even though the benefits of legal protection are... View Details

Keywords: Refugees; Knowledge Dissemination; Trust; Risk and Uncertainty; Rights; Europe

30 Apr 2021
Research & Ideas

Why Anger Makes a Wrongly Accused Person Look Guilty

University—found that anger can make a person come across as guilty even when they are not. Too often, when an employee is accused of wrongdoing, people evaluating the situation can make snap judgments based on biases View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

Forthcoming
Article

Human-Algorithm Collaboration with Private Information: Naïve Advice Weighting Behavior and Mitigation

By: Maya Balakrishnan, Kris Ferreira and Jordan Tong

Even if algorithms make better predictions than humans on average, humans may sometimes have private information which an algorithm does not have access to that can improve performance. How can we help humans effectively use and adjust recommendations made by... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Digital Marketing

19 Feb 2007
Research & Ideas

Inexperienced Investors and Market Bubbles

MacKay observed in 1852, "even chimney-sweeps and old clotheswomen dabbled in tulips." These days it's not just chimney-sweeps who are lured to investment heartbreak. New research suggests that even professional fund managers—if... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Financial Services

October 2020 (Revised May 2023)
Exercise

SenseAim Technologies: Pricing to Win

By: Elie Ofek, Eyal Biyalogorsky, Marco Bertini and Oded Koenigsberg

This exercise serves to help students understand the proper role and use of costs in a firm’s pricing decisions. The exercise is designed such that the learning of students evolves across a classroom session, starting from understanding which costs are relevant when... View Details

Keywords: Pricing Decisions; Cost; Information; Price; Decision Making

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2019
Working Paper

Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys

By: Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik

We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labor-market shocks. We consider the following shocks: technological change, a demand shift, bad management, and three kinds of international outsourcing. Respondents... View Details

Keywords: Labor; Markets; System Shocks; Trade; Attitudes; Surveys