Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(2,478)
- Faculty Publications (366)
- 2022
- Working Paper
Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence
By: Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro, Frank Yang and Ali Yurukoglu
Existing theories of media competition imply that advertisers will pay a lower price in equilibrium to reach consumers who multi-home across competing outlets. We generalize and extend this theoretical result and test it using data from television and social media... View Details
- June 2022 (Revised October 2022)
- Background Note
Digital Commerce and Delivery: Preparing Food and Retail Value Chains for a 50-50 World
By: William R. Kerr, Daniel O'Connor, Paige Boehmcke and Will Ensor
Increasing digitalization of grocery retail and quick commerce reveals insights about managing complex supply chains at scale and shifting revenue streams from product sales to data monetization. How are the roles of retailers changing? What happens if marginal cost... View Details
Keywords: Grocery Delivery; Grocery; Digitalization; Fulfillment; Delivery; Supply Chain; Disruption; Food; Supply Chain Management; Market Design; Trends; Value Creation; Goods and Commodities; Customer Value and Value Chain; Digital Transformation; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; China
- 2022
- Working Paper
Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Scope 3 Carbon Emissions
By: George Serafeim and Gladys Vélez Caicedo
For most organizations, the vast amount of carbon emissions occur in their supply chain and in the post-sale processing, usage, and end of life treatment of a product, collectively labelled scope 3 emissions. In this paper, we train machine learning algorithms on 15... View Details
- 2022
- Article
Exploring Counterfactual Explanations Through the Lens of Adversarial Examples: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.
By: Martin Pawelczyk, Chirag Agarwal, Shalmali Joshi, Sohini Upadhyay and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models become more widely deployed in high-stakes applications, counterfactual explanations have emerged as key tools for providing actionable model explanations in practice. Despite the growing popularity of counterfactual explanations, a... View Details
- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
A Linear Panel Model with Heterogeneous Coefficients and Variation in Exposure
By: Jesse M. Shapiro and Liyang Sun
Linear panel models featuring unit and time fixed effects appear in many areas of empirical economics. An active literature studies the interpretation of the ordinary least squares estimator of the model, commonly called the two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator, in... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?
By: Laura Alfaro, Maggie X. Chen and Davin Chor
Amid public skepticism about trade, we investigate whether evidence-based information--a concise statement of a research finding--can shape preferences towards trade policy. Across survey experiments conducted over 2018-2022 on U.S. general population samples, we... View Details
- March 2022 (Revised January 2025)
- Technical Note
Linear Regression
This note provides an overview of linear regression for an introductory data science course. It begins with a discussion of correlation, and explains why correlation does not necessarily imply causation. The note then describes the method of least squares, and how to... View Details
- March 2022 (Revised February 2023)
- Case
Pakistan Rising: Bazaar's Growth Story (A)
By: Paul A. Gompers and Gamze Yucaoglu
The case opens in September 2021 as Hamza Jawaid and Saad Jangda, co-founders of Bazaar technologies (Bazaar), the Pakistani high growth B2B e-commerce marketplace, are contemplating whether the year-and-a half old startup should also venture into offering financing to... View Details
- March 2022
- Article
Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models
By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Disagreement Problem in Explainable Machine Learning: A Practitioner's Perspective
By: Satyapriya Krishna, Tessa Han, Alex Gu, Javin Pombra, Shahin Jabbari, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As various post hoc explanation methods are increasingly being leveraged to explain complex models in high-stakes settings, it becomes critical to develop a deeper understanding of if and when the explanations output by these methods disagree with each other, and how... View Details
- February 2022
- Case
NFX Capital and Moov Technologies
By: Scott Duke Kominers and Nicole Tempest Keller
In July 2019, James Currier, a general partner at San Francisco-based NFX Ventures, was considering a seed stage investment of $1.5 million in Moov Technologies, a B2B marketplace for used industrial equipment. NFX was a venture capital firm focused on seed-stage... View Details
- February 2022
- Article
Sugar-sweetened Beverage Purchases and Intake at Event Arenas with and without a Portion Size Cap
By: Sheri Volger, James Scott Parrott, Brian Elbel, Leslie K. John, Jason P. Block, Pamela Rothpletz-Puglia and Christina A. Roberto
This is the first real-world study to examine the association between a voluntary 16-ounce (oz.) portion-size cap on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) at a sporting arena on volume of SSBs and food calories purchased and consumed during basketball games. Cross-sectional... View Details
- January 2022
- Case
Somatus: Value-Based Kidney Care (A)
By: Ariel D. Stern, Robert S. Huckman and Sarah Mehta
When Dr. Ikenna Okezie founded Somatus, a value-based kidney care provider, his goal had been nothing short of transforming kidney care delivery in the United States. Rather than relying on dialysis, a costly and intensive treatment for late-stage kidney disease, the... View Details
- Article
Pattern Detection in the Activation Space for Identifying Synthesized Content
By: Celia Cintas, Skyler Speakman, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Victor Akinwande, Edward McFowland III and Komminist Weldemariam
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently achieved unprecedented success in photo-realistic image synthesis from low-dimensional random noise. The ability to synthesize high-quality content at a large scale brings potential risks as the generated samples may... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations
By: Dylan Slack, Satyapriya Krishna, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh
Practitioners increasingly use machine learning (ML) models, yet they have become more complex and harder to understand. To address this issue, researchers have proposed techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use explainability... View Details
- Article
A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun
We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public... View Details
- Article
Adaptive Machine Unlearning
By: Varun Gupta, Christopher Jung, Seth Neel, Aaron Roth, Saeed Sharifi-Malvajerdi and Chris Waites
Data deletion algorithms aim to remove the influence of deleted data points from trained models at a cheaper computational cost than fully retraining those models. However, for sequences of deletions, most prior work in the non-convex setting gives valid guarantees... View Details
- Article
Counterfactual Explanations Can Be Manipulated
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh
Counterfactual explanations are useful for both generating recourse and auditing fairness between groups. We seek to understand whether adversaries can manipulate counterfactual explanations in an algorithmic recourse setting: if counterfactual explanations indicate... View Details
- Article
Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details