Publications

2025
Article

Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments

By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science

Article

Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects

By: Juan Alcácer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida

Strategy aims at understanding the differential effects of firms’ actions on performance. However, standard regression models estimate only the average effects of these actions across firms. Our paper discusses how random coefficient models (RCMs) may generate new... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Research; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Performance

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March 2002
Article

The Potential Role of Economic Cost Models in the Regulation of Telecommunications in Developing Countries

What is the efficient cost of providing telecommunications services to a certain area or type of customer? As developing countries build up their capacity to regulate infrastructure monopolies, cost models are likely to prove increasingly important in answering... View Details

Keywords: Information; Cost; Mathematical Methods; Developing Countries and Economies; Telecommunications Industry

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July 16, 2016
Article

A Game Theoretic Model for Resource Allocation Among Countermeasures with Multiple Attributes

By: Elisabeth C. Paulson, Igor Linkov and Jeffrey Keisler

We study a strategic, two-player, sequential game between an attacker and defender. The defender must allocate resources amongst possible countermeasures and across possible targets. The attacker then chooses a type of threat and a target to attack. This paper proposes... View Details

Keywords: Resource Allocation; Game Theory; Strategy

Research Summary

A Model of Delegation in Contests (with Stefan Brandauer), 2004

We analyze a contest between two groups where group members have differing valuations for the contested rent. Generically the pivotal group member with the median valuation of the rent will not act himself but will want to send a group member that has preferences... View Details

February 21, 2025
Article

How a Company’s Ownership Model Shapes the Mistakes It Makes

By: Josh Baron

Why do some companies continue to thrive for decades and others die after an initial run of success? Like many kinds of accidents, company failure is generally the consequence of cascading effects that combine to overwhelm a previously effective strategy. But the... View Details

Keywords: Business Exit or Shutdown; Failure; Ownership

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2021
Working Paper

Real Credit Cycles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry

We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit

01 Jun 2020
What Do You Think?

Will Challenged Amazon Tweak Its Retail Model Post-Pandemic?

Amazon. Customer service is relative, a product of customer expectations compared to actual experiences. Amazon has created very high customer expectations for in-stock merchandise and rapid delivery and, in the past, generally met them.... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Retail

2024
Working Paper

Using LLMs for Market Research

By: James Brand, Ayelet Israeli and Donald Ngwe

Large language models (LLMs) have rapidly gained popularity as labor-augmenting tools for programming, writing, and many other processes that benefit from quick text generation. In this paper we explore the uses and benefits of LLMs for researchers and practitioners... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Model; Research; AI and Machine Learning; Analysis; Customers; Consumer Behavior; Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry

SSRN

2023
Working Paper

Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation

By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov

Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior

SSRN

25 Apr 2023
Op-Ed

How SHEIN and Temu Conquered Fast Fashion—and Forged a New Business Model

methods. “The success of Amazon, Shopify, and social commerce sites such as Instagram convinced consumers to move much of their purchasing power online. ” That the model was born in China is not surprising because China has long had the... View Details

Keywords: by John Deighton; Fashion; Retail; Consumer Products

18 Jun 2024
Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

doctoral student at the University of Chicago. The ‘state’ of the price gap matters Economists generally use two main data models to detect inflation and predict the pace at which retailers raise prices:... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking

1996
Article

Evidence to Support the Componential Model of Creativity: Secondary Analyses of Three Studies

By: R. Conti, H. Coon and T. M. Amabile

Amabile's (1983a, 1983b, 1988) componential model of creativity predicts that three major components contribute to creativity: skills specific to the task domain, general (cross-domain) creativity-relevant skills, and task motivation. If all three components actually... View Details

Keywords: Theory; Creativity; Research

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Article

Towards Robust and Reliable Algorithmic Recourse

By: Sohini Upadhyay, Shalmali Joshi and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision making (e.g., loan approvals), there has been growing interest in post-hoc techniques which provide recourse to affected individuals. These techniques generate recourses under the assumption... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning Models; Algorithmic Recourse; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction

2008
Article

Warmth and Competence As Universal Dimensions of Social Perception: The Stereotype Content Model and the BIAS Map

By: A. J.C. Cuddy, S. T. Fiske and P. Glick

The stereotype content model (SCM) defines two fundamental dimensions of social perception, warmth and competence, predicted respectively by perceived competition and status. Combinations of warmth and competence generate distinct emotions of admiration, contempt,... View Details

Keywords: Perception; Competency and Skills; Prejudice and Bias; Emotions; Business Model; Behavior; Research; Competition; Status and Position; Cognition and Thinking; Groups and Teams

20 Aug 2024
Interview

Angel City Football Club: A New Business Model for Women’s Sports

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Brian Kenny and Nicole Tempest Keller

Angel City Football Club (ACFC) was founded in 2020 by venture capitalist Kara Nortman, entrepreneur Julie Uhrman, and actor and activist Natalie Portman. As outsiders to professional sports, the all-female founding team had rewritten the playbook for how to build a... View Details

Keywords: Brands and Branding; Gender; Franchise Ownership; Business Model; Sports Industry