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(1,288)
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- Faculty Publications (799)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,288)
- News (115)
- Research (1,047)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (799)
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- Article
The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer
When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully.... View Details
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Phillip E. Pfeifer. "The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds." Operations Research 61, no. 6 (November–December 2013): 1383–1398. (*Finalist in the Decision Analysis Society Publication Award, 2015.)
- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
- 2013
- Article
What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial... View Details
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–574.
- January 1982
- Case
New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-060, January 1982.
- January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
- Case
CBS Record Co. (A): The Long-Range Industry Forecast
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "CBS Record Co. (A): The Long-Range Industry Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-182, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
- September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
- Case
Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth
By: Mark Egan
As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details
Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry
Egan, Mark. "Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth." Harvard Business School Case 224-023, September 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
- August 1988 (Revised January 1989)
- Supplement
Optical Distortion New Product Forecasting Model, Master Diskette
Kosnik, Thomas J. "Optical Distortion New Product Forecasting Model, Master Diskette." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 588-547, August 1988. (Revised January 1989.)
- January 1982
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (C): Sales Forecasting of Major Procurements
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (C): Sales Forecasting of Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-180, January 1982.
- February 2024
- Supplement
Data-Driven Denim: Financial Forecasting at Levi Strauss: Historical Data
By: Mark Egan
- 2018
- Working Paper
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future
By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Winkler, Robert L., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Victor Richmond R. Jose. "Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-039, October 2018.
- November 1974 (Revised November 1977)
- Background Note
Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis
By: Paul A. Vatter
Vatter, Paul A. "Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 175-105, November 1974. (Revised November 1977.)
- March 1981 (Revised February 1983)
- Background Note
Forecasts by Bankers of Brazil's Performance in 1981
Wellons, Philip A. "Forecasts by Bankers of Brazil's Performance in 1981." Harvard Business School Background Note 381-145, March 1981. (Revised February 1983.)
- January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
- Supplement
Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth
By: Mark Egan
- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
- 2006
- Working Paper
Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning
To date, little research has been done on managing the organizational and political dimensions of generating and improving forecasts in corporate settings. We examine the implementation of a supply chain planning process at a consumer electronics company, concentrating... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Business or Company Management; Supply Chain Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Planning; Electronics Industry
Oliva, Rogelio, and Noel Watson. "Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-024, October 2006. (Revised March 2007, January 2008.)
- April 1995 (Revised April 2008)
- Teaching Note
L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management TN
Teaching Note for (9-893-003). View Details
- January 1995
- Teaching Note
Stride Rite Corporation (A), The: Demand Forecasting Process TN
- June 1988 (Revised November 1989)
- Background Note
The Optical Distortion New Product Forecasting Model, Caseware Instructions
Kosnik, Thomas J. "The Optical Distortion New Product Forecasting Model, Caseware Instructions." Harvard Business School Background Note 588-079, June 1988. (Revised November 1989.)
- 2007
- Working Paper
Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting
By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-056, March 2007.
- 02 Nov 2006
- Working Paper Summaries
Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning
Keywords: by Rogelio Oliva & Noel H. Watson