Filter Results:
(2,486)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,378)
- News (517)
- Research (2,486)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,605)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,378)
- News (517)
- Research (2,486)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,605)
Sort by
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- 1989
- Book
Forecasting Methods for Management
By: S. Makridakis and S. C. Wheelwright
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Makridakis, S., and S. C. Wheelwright. Forecasting Methods for Management. 5th ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1989.
- Article
Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey and Adam D. Galinsky
Prior studies linking grit—defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals—to performance are beset by contradictory evidence. As a result, commentators have increasingly declared that grit has limited effects. We propose that this inconsistent evidence has... View Details
Keywords: Grit; Perseverance; Passion; Motivation; Personal Characteristics; Emotions; Performance; Motivation and Incentives
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 40 (October 2, 2018): 9980–9985.
- July 2019
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)." Harvard Business School Case 520-012, July 2019.
- September 1960 (Revised April 1983)
- Background Note
Note on Financial Forecasting
Introduction to basic techniques of constructing pro forma statements and cash budgets. Illustrated by examples, supplemented by exercises. View Details
Helfert, Erich A. "Note on Financial Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 206-048, September 1960. (Revised April 1983.)
- May 2017
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
- Research Summary
Does the Adoption of Rolling Forecasts Improve Planning?
This field study investigates the consequences of adopting rolling forecasts on organizational planning. Using quarterly product-line forecasted and realized sales data from several business units of a multinational biotechnology supplier, I find that subsequent to the... View Details
- February 2021
- Tutorial
Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details
- August 28, 2019
- Article
How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate
By: Lou Shipley
Companies need consistently accurate sales forecasts — but unfortunately they are rare. That’s because many companies fail to align their sales and marketing departments, and that alignment is a prerequisite for forecast accuracy. Companies can achieve better alignment... View Details
Shipley, Lou. "How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (August 28, 2019).
- 2013
- Other Teaching and Training Material
Operations Management Reading: Forecasting
By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow
Wheelwright, Steven C., and Ann B. Winslow. "Operations Management Reading: Forecasting." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Harvard Business Publishing 8042HBH, 2013.
- Article
Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments
By: Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers and J. Peter Scoblic
Political debates often suffer from vague-verbiage predictions that make it difficult to assess accuracy and improve policy. A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make... View Details
Keywords: Tournaments; Politics; Depolarization; Knowledge Creation; Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics
Tetlock, Philip E., Barbara A. Mellers, and J. Peter Scoblic. "Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments." Science 355, no. 6324 (February 3, 2017): 481–483.
- October 2014
- Teaching Note
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and (B)
By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth Meyer
This is the teaching note to HBS case 214-085: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
- 16 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Amount and Diversity of Digital Emotional Expression Predicts Happiness
- April 2016
- Teaching Note
Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016
By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jonathan Cohen
This Note was created for the purpose of aiding classroom instructors in the use of the Harvard Business School case, "Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016." As chairman and CEO, David Kenny guided the Weather Company's transformation from a cable television... View Details
- March 2018
- Article
Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior
By: Jackson G. Lu, Julia J. Lee, F. Gino and Adam D. Galinsky
Air pollution is a serious problem that influences billions of people globally. Although the health and environmental costs of air pollution are well known, the present research investigates its ethical costs. We propose that air pollution can increase criminal and... View Details
Lu, Jackson G., Julia J. Lee, F. Gino, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior." Psychological Science 29, no. 3 (March 2018): 340–355.
- January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
- Supplement
Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth
By: Mark Egan
- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
- January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-179, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
- 2009
- Article
The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting
By: Walter Friedman
Friedman, Walter. "The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting." History of Political Economy 41, no. 1 (2009).
- November 2011
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2011 version includes: sliced peanut butter, artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks, interactive tombstones, and stride-changing running shoes. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption.... View Details
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)." Harvard Business School Case 512-047, November 2011.