Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

Filter Results: (3,262)

Filter Results: (3,262)

Show Results For

← Page 6 of 3,262 Results →

January 2010
Journal Article

A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere

Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition

Find at Harvard

August 2018
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch

January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
Module Note

Analysis of Financial and Non-Financial Information for Forecasting Performance

By: Charles C.Y. Wang

This note describes the main themes and cases of a teaching module on the analysis of information from, and outside of, financial statements for forecasting firms’ future financial performance. The module’s pedagogical goal is to deepen students’ understanding of the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Reporting; Performance; Analysis; Valuation; Accounting; Finance

28 Sep 2012
News

The predictability principle

January 1983 (Revised September 1983)
Case

E.T. Phone Home, Inc.: Forecasting Business Demand

By: John F. Cady and Frank V. Cespedes

Describes a process for forecasting market demand for an emerging technology--cellular radio. The student must critically evaluate the demand model and the market estimates, and modify them as appropriate in order to develop a marketing plan and budget. View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Business Processes; Technology

2022
Chapter

What Predicts Corruption?

By: Emanuele Colonnelli, Jorge Gallego and Mounu Prem

Keywords: Crime and Corruption

September 2023
Supplement

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth (B)

As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details

Keywords: Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Expansion; Production; Apparel and Accessories Industry

April 2012
Article

The Predictive Value of Accruals and Consequences for Market Anomalies

By: Francois Brochet, Seunghan Nam and Joshua Ronen

We revisit the role of the cash and accrual components of accounting earnings in predicting future cash flows using out-of-sample predictions and market value of equity as a proxy for all future cash flows. We find that, on average, accruals improve upon current cash... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Value; Equity; Markets; Cash Flow; Information Management; Accrual Accounting; Earnings Management; Corporate Governance; Stocks

Find at Harvard

19 Sep 2019
News

Predicting Human Behaviors

“Self-driving cars today know what they are seeing and how fast the object is moving, but they aren’t good at predicting what a human will do next,” explains Misra. “We want to help machines understand... View Details

Keywords: April White

Article

Why Grit Requires Perseverance and Passion to Positively Predict Performance

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Andreas Wihler, Erica R. Bailey and Adam D. Galinsky

Prior studies linking grit—defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals—to performance are beset by contradictory evidence. As a result, commentators have increasingly declared that grit has limited effects. We propose that this inconsistent evidence has... View Details

Keywords: Grit; Perseverance; Passion; Motivation; Personal Characteristics; Emotions; Performance; Motivation and Incentives

July 2019
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)

By: John Gourville

One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details

Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch

November 2018
Case

Komatsu Komtrax: Asset Tracking Meets Demand Forecasting

By: Willy Shih, Paul Hong and YoungWon Park

Komatsu's Komtrax system started as a way of remotely monitoring and tracking equipment for the purpose of improving operational efficiency. This case follows its evolution towards other uses including demand forecasting for its sales, marketing, and production... View Details

Keywords: Big Data; Manufacturing; Manufacturing Industry; Data Strategy; Internet Of Things; Construction; Production; Analytics and Data Science; Strategy; Performance Efficiency; Forecasting and Prediction; Industrial Products Industry; Construction Industry; Japan

2002
Other Unpublished Work

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

2016
Working Paper

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over optimistic relative to... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics

Find at Harvard

August 28, 2019
Article

How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate

By: Lou Shipley

Companies need consistently accurate sales forecasts — but unfortunately they are rare. That’s because many companies fail to align their sales and marketing departments, and that alignment is a prerequisite for forecast accuracy. Companies can achieve better alignment... View Details

Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Alignment; Technology

Find at Harvard

1989
Book

Forecasting Methods for Management

By: S. Makridakis and S. C. Wheelwright

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

Find at Harvard

February 2021
Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein

This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details

Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning

April 2016
Teaching Note

Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016

By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jonathan Cohen

This Note was created for the purpose of aiding classroom instructors in the use of the Harvard Business School case, "Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016." As chairman and CEO, David Kenny guided the Weather Company's transformation from a cable television... View Details

Keywords: Weather Company; IBM; Digital; Technology; David Kenny; Television; Weather Channel; Legacy Business; Mainstream; Newstream; Reorganization; Acquisitions; Transformation; Information Technology; Television Entertainment; Acquisition; Consolidation; Change; Leadership

Research Summary

Does the Adoption of Rolling Forecasts Improve Planning?

This field study investigates the consequences of adopting rolling forecasts on organizational planning. Using quarterly product-line forecasted and realized sales data from several business units of a multinational biotechnology supplier, I find that subsequent to the... View Details

September 1960 (Revised April 1983)
Background Note

Note on Financial Forecasting

Introduction to basic techniques of constructing pro forma statements and cash budgets. Illustrated by examples, supplemented by exercises. View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Investment

←
6
7
…
163
164
→