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(1,266)
- News (116)
- Research (1,045)
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- Faculty Publications (792)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,266)
- News (116)
- Research (1,045)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (792)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions
By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
We investigate whether corporate officers should grant managers discretion to override AI-driven demand forecasts and labor scheduling tools. Analyzing five years of administrative data from a large grocery retailer using such an AI tool, encompassing over 500 stores,... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Working Conditions; Performance Productivity
Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, April 2024.
- Article
The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer
When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully.... View Details
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Phillip E. Pfeifer. "The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds." Operations Research 61, no. 6 (November–December 2013): 1383–1398. (*Finalist in the Decision Analysis Society Publication Award, 2015.)
- January 1982
- Case
New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-060, January 1982.
- 2013
- Article
What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial... View Details
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–574.
- January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
- Case
CBS Record Co. (A): The Long-Range Industry Forecast
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "CBS Record Co. (A): The Long-Range Industry Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-182, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
- September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
- Case
Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth
By: Mark Egan
As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details
Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry
Egan, Mark. "Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth." Harvard Business School Case 224-023, September 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
- January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
- Module Note
Analysis of Financial and Non-Financial Information for Forecasting Performance
This note describes the main themes and cases of a teaching module on the analysis of information from, and outside of, financial statements for forecasting firms’ future financial performance. The module’s pedagogical goal is to deepen students’ understanding of the... View Details
Wang, Charles C.Y. "Analysis of Financial and Non-Financial Information for Forecasting Performance." Harvard Business School Module Note 122-071, January 2022. (Revised March 2022.)
- January 1978
- Background Note
Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package." Harvard Business School Background Note 178-095, January 1978.
- Winter 2016
- Article
Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization
By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time... View Details
Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi. "Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18, no. 1 (Winter 2016): 69–88.
- 24 Sep 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts
- 13 Dec 2024
- News
Is That Economic Forecast You Just Heard Reliable?
- January 1977 (Revised July 1985)
- Case
Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)
Wheelwright, Steven C. "Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)." Harvard Business School Case 677-150, January 1977. (Revised July 1985.)
- February 2024
- Supplement
Data-Driven Denim: Financial Forecasting at Levi Strauss: Exhibits
By: Mark Egan
- 2011
- Chapter
The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly
By: George Serafeim
Serafeim, George. "The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly." Chap. 3 in The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies: Translating Market Inefficiencies into Effective Investment Strategies, edited by Len Zacks, 63–91. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
- October 1992 (Revised September 1993)
- Case
L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management
L.L. Bean must make stocking decisions on thousands of items sold through its catalogs. In many cases, orders must be placed with vendors twelve or more weeks before a catalog lands on a customer's doorstep, and commitments cannot be changed thereafter. As a result,... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Cost Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Demand and Consumers; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Retail Industry; United States
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management." Harvard Business School Case 893-003, October 1992. (Revised September 1993.)
- October 2008
- Article
The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts
The 1990s were characterized by substantial increases in the performance of and investor reliance on financial analysts. Because managers possess superior private information and issue forecasts to align investors' expectations with their own, we predict that... View Details
Keywords: Information; Performance Expectations; Earnings Management; Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction
Baginski, Stephen P., John M. Hassell, and Michael D. Kimbrough. "The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts." Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 31, no. 3 (October 2008): 311–330.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future
By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Winkler, Robert L., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Victor Richmond R. Jose. "Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-039, October 2018.
- November 1974 (Revised November 1977)
- Background Note
Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis
By: Paul A. Vatter
Vatter, Paul A. "Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 175-105, November 1974. (Revised November 1977.)
- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.