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- Faculty Publications (461)
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- 1977
- Working Paper
Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance
By: Jerry R. Green
A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details
Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty
Green, Jerry R. "Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 215, November 1977.
- 06 Jan 2012
- Op-Ed
Where Green Corporate Ratings Fail
political process or give extra credit to those advocating for environmental policies. If nothing else, these programs should revoke green distinction from members whose contributions undermine such regulation. By currently failing to include policy advocacy measures,... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Interest-Rate Risk and Household Portfolios
By: Sylvain Catherine, Max Miller, James Paron and Natasha Sarin
How are households exposed to interest-rate risk? When rates fall, households face lower future expected returns but those holding long-term assets—disproportionately the wealthy and middle-aged—experience capital gains. We study the hedging demand for long-term assets... View Details
Keywords: Portfolio Choice; Social Security; Interest Rates; Investment Portfolio; Equality and Inequality; Welfare
Catherine, Sylvain, Max Miller, James Paron, and Natasha Sarin. "Interest-Rate Risk and Household Portfolios." Working Paper, October 2023. (Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Review.)
- Article
Design and Testing of a Mobile Health Application Rating Tool
By: David Levine, Zo Co, Lisa Newmark, Alissa Groisser, A Jay Holmgren, Jennifer Haas and David Bates
Mobile health applications (“apps”) have rapidly proliferated, yet their ability to improve outcomes for patients remains unclear. A validated tool that addresses apps’ potentially important dimensions has not been available to patients and clinicians. The objective of... View Details
Levine, David, Zo Co, Lisa Newmark, Alissa Groisser, A Jay Holmgren, Jennifer Haas, and David Bates. "Design and Testing of a Mobile Health Application Rating Tool." Art. 74. npj Digital Medicine 3 (2020).
- December 2002
- Background Note
Simulation of Prices, Rates and Cash Flows (B)
Considers more advanced issues required for complete cash flow simulation, including residual diagnostics (to determine whether a process has been identified correctly), simulation of nonmarket risk variables, and real options. View Details
Shimko, David C. "Simulation of Prices, Rates and Cash Flows (B)." Harvard Business School Background Note 203-057, December 2002.
- August 2005 (Revised April 2014)
- Teaching Note
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details
Keywords: Diversification; International CAPM; CAPM; Home Bias; Currency Risk; Exchange Rate Risk; International Stock Market Returns; Financial Services Industry; United States; Currency Exchange Rate; Stocks; Financial Markets; International Finance; Investment Return; Currency; Risk and Uncertainty; Emerging Markets; Investment Portfolio; United States; Australia; Canada; China; Germany; India; Japan; United Kingdom
- August 1995 (Revised October 1996)
- Case
Futures on the Mexican Peso
By: Kenneth A. Froot, Matthew McBrady and Mark Seasholes
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange needs to decide how to design, and whether and when to introduce, a futures contract on the Mexican peso. View Details
Keywords: Exchange Rates; Money Markets; Futures Market; Country Analysis; International Finance; Financial Markets; Futures and Commodity Futures; Financial Services Industry; Chicago; Mexico
Froot, Kenneth A., Matthew McBrady, and Mark Seasholes. "Futures on the Mexican Peso." Harvard Business School Case 296-004, August 1995. (Revised October 1996.)
- April 2010
- Case
Groupe Ariel S.A.: Parity Conditions and Cross-Border Valuation
By: Timothy A. Luehrman and James Quinn
Groupe Ariel evaluates a proposal from its Mexican subsidiary to purchase and install cost-saving equipment at a manufacturing facility in Monterrey. The improvements will allow the plant to automate recycling and remanufacturing of toner and printer cartridges, an... View Details
Keywords: Exchange Rates; Securities Analysis; Project Evaluation; International Finance; Debt Securities; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Capital Budgeting; Europe; Mexico
Luehrman, Timothy A., and James Quinn. "Groupe Ariel S.A.: Parity Conditions and Cross-Border Valuation." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-194, April 2010.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James D. Paron and Jessica Wachter
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
Miller, Max, James D. Paron, and Jessica Wachter. "Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 34021, July 2025. (Revise and Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)
- September 2008
- Article
Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification
By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann
This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States
Hanson, Samuel G., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Til Schuermann. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification." Journal of Empirical Finance 15, no. 4 (September 2008): 583–612.
- 1990
- Chapter
Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars
By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Kenneth A. Froot. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars." In Private Behaviour and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies, edited by Anthony Courakis and Mark Taylor, 73–128. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1990. (Reprinted in Greek Economic Review 10 (June 1988): 49-102; and translated in Cuadernos Economicos de ICE, No. 38 (1988): 195-242.)
- 2016
- Chapter
Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply." In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edited by Elias Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 11–62. Santiago: Banco Central de Chile, 2016. (Working Paper version: NBER Working Paper No. 21750 Here.)
- 1986
- Article
The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
- 18 Oct 2013
- Working Paper Summaries
Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Bonds; Financial Markets; Government Administration; Valuation; Interest Rates; United States
Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Review of Financial Studies 38, no. 4 (April 2025): 981–1013. (Editor's Choice.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices
By: Ishita Sen, Umang Khetan, Jane Li and Ioana Neamtu
We study the extent of interest rate risk sharing across the financial system using granular positions and transactions data in interest rate swaps. We show that pension and insurance (PF&I) sector emerges as a natural counterparty to banks and corporations: overall,... View Details
Keywords: Interest Rates; Investment Funds; Banks and Banking; Insurance; Investment Banking; Risk and Uncertainty
Sen, Ishita, Umang Khetan, Jane Li, and Ioana Neamtu. "The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-052, February 2024.
- September 1998
- Book Review
Review of 'Financial Markets and European Monetary Cooperation: The Lessons of the 1992-93 Exchange Rate Mechanism Crisis' by W.H. Buiter, G. Corsetti and P.A. Pesenti
By: Huw Pill
Pill, Huw. "Review of 'Financial Markets and European Monetary Cooperation: The Lessons of the 1992-93 Exchange Rate Mechanism Crisis' by W.H. Buiter, G. Corsetti and P.A. Pesenti." Journal of Economic Literature 36, no. 3 (September 1998): 1510–1512.
- January 1996 (Revised December 1999)
- Case
1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis, The
By: Kenneth A. Froot and Matthew McBrady
Explores the peso crisis of 1994-95 and why it occurred. Students must examine Mexico's policies, the capital market's reactions, and the implications of devaluation for future capital flows and growth. View Details
Keywords: Exchange Rates; International Capital Markets; Devaluation; Currency Exchange Rate; Financial Markets; International Finance; Capital; Mexico
Froot, Kenneth A., and Matthew McBrady. "1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis, The." Harvard Business School Case 296-056, January 1996. (Revised December 1999.)
- March 2005 (Revised February 2006)
- Case
Advising on Currency Risk at ICICI Bank
In March 2003, a client approached the Markets Advisory Group at ICICI Bank, India's second largest bank, about a hedging transaction. The hedge involved multiple interest rates and currencies. Shilpa Kumar, head of the Markets Advisory Group, has to put together a... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Capital Markets; Investment Funds; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; India
Chacko, George C., Marti G Subrahmanyam, Vincent Dessain, and Anders Sjoman. "Advising on Currency Risk at ICICI Bank." Harvard Business School Case 205-074, March 2005. (Revised February 2006.)
- April 2024
- Article
Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for
and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect
compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details
Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Art. 103814. Journal of Financial Economics 154 (April 2024).