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      Decision Choice And UncertaintyRemove Decision Choice And Uncertainty →

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      • May–June 2023
      • Article

      Should Your Start-up Be For-profit or Nonprofit?: A Guide for Social Entrepreneurs

      By: Cait Brumme and Brian Trelstad
      Years ago the line between nonprofit and for-profit enterprises was clear, but that has changed. Nonprofits now offer products that compete with those of the best for-profits, and for-profits can deliver as much social value as charities. Despite the blurred... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Social Entrepreneurship; Mission and Purpose; Nonprofit Organizations; For-Profit Firms; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Brumme, Cait, and Brian Trelstad. "Should Your Start-up Be For-profit or Nonprofit? A Guide for Social Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 3 (May–June 2023): 136–145.
      • June 2023
      • Article

      The Effect of Firms' Information Exposure on Safeguarding Employee Health: Evidence from COVID-19

      By: Lisa Yao Liu and Shirley Lu
      We show that information exposure through international business networks enables firms to take proactive measures that benefit employees and potentially the local community. Specifically, in the early days of COVID-19, firms that have business networks with China and... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Networks; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Health Pandemics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact
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      Liu, Lisa Yao, and Shirley Lu. "The Effect of Firms' Information Exposure on Safeguarding Employee Health: Evidence from COVID-19." Journal of Accounting Research 61, no. 3 (June 2023): 891–933.
      • June 2023
      • Article

      When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

      By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making
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      McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
      • May 2023
      • Article

      How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

      By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the... View Details
      Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation

      By: Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      Does investors' political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Flows; Syndicated Loans; Mutual Funds; Partisanship; Polarization; Elections; Political Ideology; Banks and Banking; Institutional Investing; Behavioral Finance; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation." Journal of Financial Economics 148, no. 2 (May 2023): 150–173.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse

      By: Martin Pawelczyk, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions in real-world settings, it becomes critical to ensure that individuals who are adversely impacted (e.g., loan denied) by the predictions of these models are provided with a means... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Mathematical Methods
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      Pawelczyk, Martin, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse." Proceedings of the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) (2023).
      • April 2023
      • Case

      Ryan Serhant: Time Management for Repeatable Success (A)

      By: Ashley Whillans and Hawken Lord
      From an open-concept 90’s-style stone and wood cabin in Dublin, New Hampshire, Ryan Serhant reflected on his career as a real estate broker. As Ryan stared into the fireplace that featured prominently in the center of the house, he wondered whether the period of... View Details
      Keywords: Real Estate; Time Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Personal Development and Career; Real Estate Industry
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      Whillans, Ashley, and Hawken Lord. "Ryan Serhant: Time Management for Repeatable Success (A)." Harvard Business School Case 923-048, April 2023.
      • March 2023 (Revised June 2023)
      • Teaching Note

      Ransomware Attack at Springhill Medical Center

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan (Jason) Ni
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 123-065. In July, 2019, Springhill Medical Center (“SMC”) in Mobile, Alabama fell prey to a malicious ransomware attack that crippled the hospital’s internal network systems and public-facing web page. While the hospital rushed to... View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Policy; Employees; News; Cybersecurity; Digital Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Management; Internet and the Web; Crisis Management; Business or Company Management; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Negotiation Tactics; Failure; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Attitudes; Behavior; Perception; Reputation; Trust; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Health Industry; Alabama; United States
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan (Jason) Ni. "Ransomware Attack at Springhill Medical Center." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 123-068, March 2023. (Revised June 2023.)
      • March 2023
      • Teaching Note

      Ransomware Attack at Colonial Pipeline Company

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan Ni
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 123-069. On the morning of May 7, 2021, Colonial Pipeline Company became aware that the company had been the victim of a malicious ransomware attack that had stolen and locked up company data. The extortionists demanded 75 bitcoins (worth... View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Policy; Employees; News; Cybersecurity; Digital Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Management; Internet and the Web; Crisis Management; Business or Company Management; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Negotiation Tactics; Failure; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Attitudes; Behavior; Perception; Reputation; Trust; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Infrastructure; Distribution Industry; United States; Alabama
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan Ni. "Ransomware Attack at Colonial Pipeline Company." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 123-070, March 2023.
      • March 2023
      • Case

      Ransomware Attack at Colonial Pipeline Company

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan Ni
      On the morning of May 7, 2021, Colonial Pipeline Company became aware that the company had been the victim of a malicious ransomware attack that had stolen and locked up company data. The extortionists demanded 75 bitcoins (worth about $4.4 million at the time) in... View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Policy; Employees; News; Cybersecurity; Digital Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Management; Internet and the Web; Crisis Management; Business or Company Management; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Negotiation Tactics; Failure; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Attitudes; Behavior; Perception; Reputation; Trust; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Infrastructure; Distribution Industry; United States; Alabama
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan Ni. "Ransomware Attack at Colonial Pipeline Company." Harvard Business School Case 123-069, March 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Complexity and Time

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31047, March 2023.
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Market Segmentation Trees

      By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis
      Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing
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      Aouad, Ali, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira, and Ryan McNellis. "Market Segmentation Trees." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 648–667.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Senior Team Emotional Dynamics and Strategic Decision Making at a Platform Transition

      By: Timo O. Vuori and Michael L. Tushman
      Based on an inductive case study, we develop an emotional-temporal process model of an incumbent’s strategic decision making at a platform transition. We describe the senior team’s emotional response to this transition and the impact of these emotions on their... View Details
      Keywords: Emotions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Transition; Digital Platforms
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      Vuori, Timo O., and Michael L. Tushman. "Senior Team Emotional Dynamics and Strategic Decision Making at a Platform Transition." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-054, March 2023.
      • February 2023
      • Case

      Ransomware Attack at Springhill Medical Center

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan (Jason) Ni
      In July, 2019, Springhill Medical Center (“SMC”) in Mobile, Alabama, fell prey to a malicious ransomware attack that crippled the hospital’s internal network systems and public-facing web page. While the hospital rushed to securely restore the network, medical... View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governance Controls; Policy; Employees; News; Cybersecurity; Digital Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Management; Internet and the Web; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Risk Management; Negotiation Tactics; Failure; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Attitudes; Behavior; Perception; Reputation; Trust; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Health Industry; United States; Alabama
      Citation
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and Li-Kuan (Jason) Ni. "Ransomware Attack at Springhill Medical Center." Harvard Business School Case 123-065, February 2023.
      • February 2023 (Revised November 2024)
      • Case

      Ronald Reagan: Changing the World

      By: Robert Simons and Shirley Sun
      This case traces the rise of Ronald Reagan from small town Illinois to two-term president of the United States. An unlikely candidate for the world’s most powerful job, the case describes the different roles that Reagan filled over his life: radio announcer, Hollywood... View Details
      Keywords: Politics; Entertainment; Personal Characteristics; Business And Government; Values And Beliefs; Mission And Purpose; Decision Making; Government Administration; Management Style; Power and Influence; United States
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      Simons, Robert, and Shirley Sun. "Ronald Reagan: Changing the World." Harvard Business School Case 123-024, February 2023. (Revised November 2024.)
      • February 2023 (Revised March 2024)
      • Supplement

      Shanty Real Estate: Teaching Note Supplement

      By: Michael Luca and Jesse M. Shapiro
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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      Luca, Michael, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Shanty Real Estate: Teaching Note Supplement." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 923-715, February 2023. (Revised March 2024.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Leadership and the Value of Persistence

      By: James J. Anton, Alan Jaske and Dennis Yao
      Consider a leader’s decision whether to persist with an unsuccessful R&D project or to terminate the project in favor of a new project with an uncertain value. How does that decision affect the effort exerted by the manager assigned to the project? To study this... View Details
      Keywords: Persistence; Project Evaluation; R&D Project Management; Projects; Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership
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      Anton, James J., Alan Jaske, and Dennis Yao. "Leadership and the Value of Persistence." Working Paper, January 2023.
      • January–February 2023
      • Article

      Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan
      The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu, and Najat Khan. "Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen." INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 53, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 70–84.
      • December 2022
      • Case

      To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM

      By: Joshua D. Margolis, David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg and James Weber
      In December 2022, Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of agribusiness and nutrition giant ADM, considered the next phase of the historic company’s future. Beginning in 2011 when he joined as COO and moving into his tenure as CEO in 2015, Luciano led a transformation of ADM... View Details
      Keywords: Agriculture; Leadership; Agribusiness; Acquisition; Business Units; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Cash; Cost of Capital; Cost Management; Profit; Food; Global Range; Innovation Strategy; Leadership Development; Leadership Style; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Risk Management; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Strategic Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Adaptation; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Vertical Integration; Value Creation; Transformation; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States; Chicago
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      Margolis, Joshua D., David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg, and James Weber. "To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM." Harvard Business School Case 423-060, December 2022.
      • December 2022 (Revised May 2024)
      • Background Note

      Brief Note on Staggered Boards

      By: Lynn S. Paine and Will Hurwitz
      This background note discusses the evolution, use, and prevalence of staggered boards. By comparison with unitary boards whose members are all elected annually for one-year terms, staggered boards are divided into subsets of directors, with one subset up for election... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Business History; Trends; Decision Choices and Conditions; United States
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      Paine, Lynn S., and Will Hurwitz. "Brief Note on Staggered Boards." Harvard Business School Background Note 323-040, December 2022. (Revised May 2024.)
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