Publications

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2010
Working Paper

Just Say No to Wall Street: Putting A Stop to the Earnings Game

By: Joseph Fuller and Michael C. Jensen

Putting an end to the "earnings game" requires that CEOs reclaim the initiative by avoiding earnings guidance and managing expectations in such a way that their stocks trade reasonably close to their intrinsic value. In place of earnings forecasts, management should... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Performance Expectations; Goals and Objectives; Risk and Uncertainty; Growth and Development Strategy; Decisions; Risk Management; Budgets and Budgeting; Earnings Management; Value; Projects

SSRN

July–August 2021
Article

Why You Aren't Getting More from Your Marketing AI

By: Eva Ascarza, Michael Ross and Bruce G.S. Hardie

Fewer than 40% of companies that invest in AI see gains from it, usually because of one or more of these errors: (1) They don’t ask the right question, and end up directing AI to solve the wrong problem. (2) They don’t recognize the differences between the value of... View Details

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Decision Making; Communication; Framework; AI and Machine Learning

November 5, 2021
Article

Leaders: Stop Confusing Correlation with Causation

By: Michael Luca

We’ve all been told that correlation does not imply causation. Yet many business leaders, elected officials, and media outlets still make causal claims based on misleading correlations. These claims are too often unscrutinized, amplified, and mistakenly used to guide... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Data Analysis; Organizations; Decision Making; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Learning

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February 2010 (Revised June 2014)
Supplement

CityCenter (D): Financial Crisis, Grand Opening, and a New Paradigm

By: John D. Macomber and Griffin James

"CityCenter (D)" follows the (A), (B), and (C) cases with subsequent chronological events through CityCenter's grand opening in December 2009 and financial results through March 2010. The case includes a simple valuation exercise intended to explore CEO Jim Murren's... View Details

Keywords: Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Private Equity; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Nevada; New Jersey

January 2009 (Revised June 2010)
Case

Cisco Business Councils (2007): Unifying a Functional Enterprise with an Internal Governance System

By: Ranjay Gulati

In response to the 2001 market downturn, Cisco Systems implemented a major restructuring that transformed the company from a decentralized to centralized organization. While recognizing that a centralized, functional structure was necessary to avoid product and... View Details

Keywords: Restructuring; Customer Focus and Relationships; Governing and Advisory Boards; Resource Allocation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Structure; Corporate Strategy; Technology Industry

August 2008
Supplement

Iceland (B): Redefining Aaa-Rated Sovereigns

By: Aldo Musacchio

In May of 2008, a team of sovereign debt analysts at Moody's had to decide whether to downgrade the country's sovereign long-term debt from Aaa to Aa1 or lower. Investor sentiment toward Iceland had changed radically in March, and the Moody's team was fearful that the... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Financial Condition; Decision Choices and Conditions; Iceland; European Union

August 2008 (Revised October 2010)
Case

Iceland (A)

By: Aldo Musacchio

In May of 2008, a team of sovereign debt analysts at Moody's had to decide whether to downgrade the country's sovereign long-term debt from Aaa to Aa1 or lower. Investor sentiment toward Iceland had changed radically in March, and the Moody's team was fearful that the... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Financial Condition; Sovereign Finance; European Union; Iceland

17 Sep 2001
Research & Ideas

Is There Help for the Big Ticket Buyer?

computer-literate consumers fail to do this homework before visiting a car dealer? Helping consumers appreciate and effectively use this information should be at the forefront of the consumer research agenda. Decision analysts also try to... View Details

Keywords: by Max H. Bazerman

February 2013
Article

Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews

By: U. Simonsohn and F. Gino

Many professionals, from auditors and lawyers, to clinical psychologists and journal editors, divide a continuous flow of judgments into subsets. College admissions interviewers, for instance, evaluate but a handful of applicants a day. We conjectured that in such... View Details

Keywords: Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction; Research

January 2021 (Revised March 2022)
Case

Into the Raging Sea: Final Voyage of the SS El Faro

By: Joseph B. Fuller and Mel Martin

Captain Michael Davidson of the container ship SS El Faro was determined to make his planned shipping trip on time—but a hurricane was approaching his intended path. To succeed, Davidson and his fellow officers must plot a course to avoid the storm in the face of... View Details

Keywords: Power Dynamics; Management; Leadership Style; Crisis Management; Failure; Groups and Teams; Rank and Position; Decision Choices and Conditions; Shipping Industry; United States

24 Jan 2024
Op-Ed

Why Boeing’s Problems with the 737 MAX Began More Than 25 Years Ago

program to upgrade to the 737 MAX. This decision required the redesign to stay within FAA’s original type-certification with the same flying characteristics. Boeing also agreed with customers like Southwest Airlines to View Details

Keywords: by Bill George; Air Transportation; Transportation; Aerospace

10 Apr 2007
First Look

First Look: April 10, 2007

http://www.hbsp.harvard.edu/b01/en/common/item_detail.jhtml?id=207019 CMM versus Agile: Methodology Wars in Software Development Harvard Business School Case 607-084 A CIO decides whether to adopt the "Capability Maturity Model" (CMM) within her IT... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

03 Dec 2008
What Do You Think?

Can Housing and Credit be “Nudged” Back to Health?

one might conclude that efforts to influence human decisions through "nudging" might be effective. However, respondents were far from unanimous in drawing this conclusion. Adnan Younis Lodhi initiated the debate by saying... View Details

Keywords: by Jim Heskett

May 2023 (Revised November 2023)
Case

Arcos Dorados: Decarbonizing McDonald’s in Latin America

By: George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal

This case describes the decarbonization strategy of Arcos Dorados—McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, operating in 20 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean—and how the company measured its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including those... View Details

Keywords: Environmental Accounting; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Food; Growth Management; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Strategy; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Green Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Latin America; North and Central America; South America

March 2024
Simulation

'Storrowed'

By: Mitchell Weiss

The game was built to accompany "Storrowed": A Generative AI Exercise, available through Harvard Business Publishing. The game adds a timing element to "Storrowed" and enables the teacher to reward teams for strong prompts or penalize teams for believing AI... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty

April 2017 (Revised August 2020)
Case

The U-Turns of National Truck Stops

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Alexander W. Schultz

Raj Makam had spent months trying to restructure a 2006 investment he had made in National Truck Stops, Inc. (NTS) as a senior member of Oaktree Capital Management’s (Oaktree) Mezzanine finance business within their Corporate Debt platform. It was the first time they... View Details

Keywords: Mezzanine Financing; Corporate Debt; Bankruptcy; Real Assets; Financing and Loans; Borrowing and Debt; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Restructuring; Private Equity; Cost vs Benefits; Atlanta; New York (city, NY)