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    • All HBS Web  (1,177)
      • Faculty Publications  (276)

      Decision AnalysisRemove Decision Analysis →

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      • June 2018
      • Case

      Forta Furniture: International Expansion

      By: John A. Quelch and Karthik Easwar
      The Forta Furniture case highlights the need to consider new market expansion to grow a firm. It demonstrates that simply doing what has always been done is not sustainable when other competitors enter the market with differentiated or potentially superior offerings.... View Details
      Keywords: Market Entry and Exit; Global Range; Decision Making; Analysis; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Expansion
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      Quelch, John A., and Karthik Easwar. "Forta Furniture: International Expansion." Harvard Business School Brief Case 918-547, June 2018.
      • June 2018
      • Teaching Note

      Meridian Systems (Brief Case)

      By: Frank V. Cespedes and Michael J. Roberts
      Teaching Note for HBS No. 918-533. The key issues discussed in the Meridian teaching note concern sales force deployment: decisions about how to focus sales efforts with respect to territories, customers, and products. The teaching note explains the strengths and... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Sales; Strategy; Salesforce Management; Organizational Structure; Technological Innovation; Marketing Strategy
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      Cespedes, Frank V., and Michael J. Roberts. "Meridian Systems (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 918-534, June 2018.
      • May 2018
      • Exercise

      Data Visualization & Communication Exercise

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This exercise uses the 1986 Challenger shuttle disaster to explore the relationship between data visualization, effective communication, and decision-making. Students review and analyze excerpts from the 13 charts engineers presented to NASA executives the night before... View Details
      Keywords: Visualization; Data; Analytics and Data Science; Communication; Performance Effectiveness; Decision Making; Analysis
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Data Visualization & Communication Exercise." Harvard Business School Exercise 118-107, May 2018.
      • April 2018
      • Supplement

      Celgene

      By: Malcolm Baker and Emily R. McComb
      In February 2011, Adam Koppel, a Managing Director at Brookside Capital, the public equity arm of Bain Capital, must decide whether to increase or exit the firm’s position in Celgene Corporation. News has emerged that raises potential safety concerns associated with... View Details
      Keywords: Life Sciences; Biotechnology; Public Market Investing; Celgene; Revlimid; Hedge Fund; Growth Stocks; Valuation; Investment; Decision Choices and Conditions; Analysis
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Emily R. McComb. "Celgene." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 218-743, April 2018.
      • March 2018 (Revised May 2018)
      • Case

      Celgene

      By: Malcolm Baker and Emily McComb
      In February 2011, Adam Koppel, a managing director at Brookside Capital, the public equity arm of Bain Capital, must decide whether to increase or exit the firm’s position in Celgene Corporation. News has emerged that raises potential safety concerns associated with... View Details
      Keywords: Life Sciences; Biotechnology; Public Market Investing; Celgene; Revlimid; Hedge Fund; Growth Stocks; Valuation; Investment; Decision Choices and Conditions; Analysis; Biotechnology Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Emily McComb. "Celgene." Harvard Business School Case 218-094, March 2018. (Revised May 2018.)
      • March 2018 (Revised May 2018)
      • Supplement

      Celgene (B)

      By: Malcolm Baker and Emily McComb
      Supplements the (A) case. View Details
      Keywords: Life Sciences; Biotechnology; Public Market Investing; Celgene; Revlimid; Hedge Fund; Growth Stocks; Valuation; Investment; Decision Choices and Conditions; Analysis; Biotechnology Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Emily McComb. "Celgene (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 218-099, March 2018. (Revised May 2018.)
      • Article

      Orienteering for Electioneering

      By: Jonah Kallenbach, Robert Kleinberg and Scott Duke Kominers
      In this paper, we introduce a combinatorial optimization problem that models the investment decision a political candidate faces when treating his or her opponents’ campaign plans as given. Our formulation accounts for both the time cost of traveling between districts... View Details
      Keywords: Political Elections; Resource Allocation; Time Management; Analysis
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      Kallenbach, Jonah, Robert Kleinberg, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Orienteering for Electioneering." Operations Research Letters 46, no. 2 (March 2018): 205–210.
      • February 2018 (Revised December 2020)
      • Case

      People Analytics at Teach For America (A)

      By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
      As of mid-2016, national nonprofit Teach For America (TFA) had struggled with three consecutive years of declining application totals, and senior management was re-examining the organization's strategy, including recruitment and selection. A few months earlier, former... View Details
      Keywords: Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Polzer, Jeffrey T., and Julia Kelley. "People Analytics at Teach For America (A)." Harvard Business School Case 418-013, February 2018. (Revised December 2020.)
      • February 2018
      • Supplement

      People Analytics at Teach For America (B)

      By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
      This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to extend his team’s predictive analytics work using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Recruitment; Analysis
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      Polzer, Jeffrey T., and Julia Kelley. "People Analytics at Teach For America (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 418-049, February 2018.
      • October 2017 (Revised April 2018)
      • Case

      Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)

      By: Michael W. Toffel, Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla and Matthew S. Johnson
      Managers make predictions all the time: How fast will my markets grow? How much inventory do I need? How intensively should I monitor my suppliers? Which potential customers will be most responsive to a particular marketing campaign? Which job candidates should I... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Policy Implementation; Empirical Research; Inspection; Occupational Safety; Occupational Health; Regulation; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Safety; Manufacturing Industry; Construction Industry; United States
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      Toffel, Michael W., Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla, and Matthew S. Johnson. "Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)." Harvard Business School Case 618-019, October 2017. (Revised April 2018.)
      • Article

      Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst

      By: James K. Sebenius
      Rightly known as the “father of negotiation analysis,” Howard Raiffa was my thesis advisor, colleague, and friend for over 30 years. The bulk of this article develops an account of his intellectual trajectory from game theory to statistical decision theory to decision... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation Analysis; Bargaining; Howard Raiffa; Negotiation; Personal Development and Career
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      Sebenius, James K. "Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst." Negotiation Journal 33, no. 4 (October 2017): 283–307.
      • July 2017
      • Case

      Centerbridge Partners and Great Wolf Resorts: Buying from a Highly Regarded Competitor

      By: Josh Lerner, John D. Dionne and Amram Migdal
      The case examines the March 2015 Centerbridge Partners investment decision regarding whether to acquire Great Wolf Resorts, a North American family-oriented indoor water parks and hotel operator, from a private equity (PE) competitor, Apollo Global Management. The case... View Details
      Keywords: Private Equity Financing; Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities; CMBS; Secondary Buyouts; Business Ventures; Acquisition; Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Cost; Cost of Capital; Equity; Private Equity; Financial Instruments; Debt Securities; Accommodations Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Financial Services Industry; North and Central America; United States
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      Lerner, Josh, John D. Dionne, and Amram Migdal. "Centerbridge Partners and Great Wolf Resorts: Buying from a Highly Regarded Competitor." Harvard Business School Case 818-023, July 2017.
      • Article

      Who Will Vote Quadratically? Voter Turnout and Votes Cast Under Quadratic Voting

      By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
      Who will vote quadratically in large-N elections under quadratic voting (QV)? First, who will vote? Although the core QV literature assumes that everyone votes, turnout is endogenous. Drawing on other work, we consider the representativeness of endogenously... View Details
      Keywords: Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Quadratic Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Mathematical Methods
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      Kaplow, Louis, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Who Will Vote Quadratically? Voter Turnout and Votes Cast Under Quadratic Voting." Special Issue on Quadratic Voting and the Public Good. Public Choice 172, nos. 1-2 (July 2017): 125–149.
      • February 2017
      • Background Note

      Decision Analysis

      By: George Wu and Kathleen McGinn
      Describes decision analysis, a systematic approach for analyzing decision problems. A running example illustrates problem structuring (decision trees), probability assessment, endpoint evaluation, “folding back the tree” as a method of analysis, and sensitivity... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Analysis; Decision Trees; Probability; Decision Making; Analysis
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      Wu, George, and Kathleen McGinn. "Decision Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 917-018, February 2017.
      • September 2016 (Revised October 2018)
      • Case

      Springfield Hospital

      By: Susanna Gallani and Robert Kaplan
      One of the key roles of costing systems is to support the evaluation of performance and facilitate appropriate resource allocations. Through participation in a comparative cost study, management at Springfield Hospital, known for its heavy focus on operational... View Details
      Keywords: Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing; Variance Analysis; Activity Based Costing and Management; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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      Gallani, Susanna, and Robert Kaplan. "Springfield Hospital." Harvard Business School Case 117-025, September 2016. (Revised October 2018.)
      • Article

      How to Tackle Your Toughest Decisions

      By: Joseph L. Badaracco
      The toughest calls managers have to make come in situations when they have worked hard to gather the facts and have done the best analysis they can, but they still don’t know what to do. Then judgment—a fusion of thinking, feelings, experience, imagination, and... View Details
      Keywords: Management; Judgments
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      Badaracco, Joseph L. "How to Tackle Your Toughest Decisions." Harvard Business Review 94, no. 9 (September 2016): 104–107.
      • 2016
      • Book

      Managing in the Gray: Five Timeless Questions for Resolving Your Toughest Problems at Work

      By: Joseph L. Badaracco
      Part of a manager's job is making tough calls, and the hardest challenge can be resolving "gray area” problems—situations in which analysis of the numbers, facts, and data fails to provide a clear answer. Gray areas test not only managers’ skills but also their... View Details
      Keywords: Business or Company Management; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Badaracco, Joseph L. Managing in the Gray: Five Timeless Questions for Resolving Your Toughest Problems at Work. Harvard Business Review Press, 2016.
      • September 2016 (Revised March 2017)
      • Module Note

      Strategy Execution Module 3: Using Information for Performance Measurement and Control

      By: Robert Simons
      This module reading explains how managers use information to control critical business processes and outcomes. The analysis begins by illustrating how managers use information to communicate goals and track performance. Then the focus turns to the choices that managers... View Details
      Keywords: Management Control Systems; Implementing Strategy; Strategy Execution; Organization Process; Feedback Model; Innovation; Uses Of Information; Big Data; Benchmarking; Decision Making; Information; Performance Evaluation; Analytics and Data Science
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      Simons, Robert. "Strategy Execution Module 3: Using Information for Performance Measurement and Control." Harvard Business School Module Note 117-103, September 2016. (Revised March 2017.)
      • Article

      Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

      By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
      We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
      Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      What Else Do Shareholders Want? Shareholder Proposals Contested by Firm Management

      By: Eugene F. Soltes, Suraj Srinivasan and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan
      Shareholder proposals provide investors an opportunity to exercise their decision rights within firms, but managers can seek permission from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to dismiss proposals. We find that managers seek to exclude 39% of all proposals... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Business and Shareholder Relations
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      Soltes, Eugene F., Suraj Srinivasan, and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan. "What Else Do Shareholders Want? Shareholder Proposals Contested by Firm Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-132, May 2016. (Revised October 2017.)
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