Capital Asset Pricing Model - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

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August 2018
Article

Extrapolation and Bubbles

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

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April 2005
Case

The University of Chicago Investment Office: Investing in Timber

In 2005, the University of Chicago Investment office was deciding how much capital to allocate toward timber investing. Explores the challenges associated with optimal portfolio construction when one of the invested assets is illiquid with limited historical price... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financial Services Industry; Education Industry

28 Jul 2015
First Look

First Look: July 28, 2015

asset pricing models with limited investment capital, but also suggest that both the level and distribution of capital are crucial for accurately... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

February 2011
Article

Dividend Taxes and International Portfolio Choice

By: Mihir Desai and Dhammika Dharmapala

This paper investigates how dividend taxes influence portfolio choices, using the response to the distinctive treatment of a subset of foreign dividends in the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA) of 2003. An open-economy after-tax capital asset... View Details

Keywords: Dividends; Portfolio Choice; Taxes; Tax Treaties; Foreign Portfolio Investment; Taxation; Lawfulness; Economy; Price; Equity; Stocks; Investment Portfolio; Opportunities; Behavior; United States

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Research Summary

The Cross Section of Expected Firm (Not Equity) Returns

This paper provides the first comprehensive study of expected firm (unlevered equity) returns. After accounting for the debt component of the firm return, I find that many of the cross sectional determinants of expected equity returns, such as the book-to-market... View Details

2018
Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

September 2021
Article

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

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Forthcoming
Article

Who Values Democracy?

This paper examines the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation

Research Summary

Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the... View Details

20 Jan 2009
Research & Ideas

Risky Business with Structured Finance

become all too clear. The pooling and repackaging of economic assets such as loans, bonds, and mortgages resulted in enormous yields for many investors—until, one day, they didn't. "The Economics of Structured Finance," a... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Banking; Financial Services

January 2020
Case

SK Group: Social Progress Credits

By: George Serafeim, Ethan Rouen and David Freiberg

SK Group was one of the largest companies South Korea. A family-run conglomerate consisting of around 120 subsidiaries and employing more than 100,000, SK was tightly knit into the fabric of Korean society. SK viewed their future success as contingent upon the strength... View Details

Research Summary

Overview

Ms. Fedyk's main research interests lie at the intersection of asset pricing and behavioral finance, with a particular focus on information and belief formation. Her job market paper is part of a broader research agenda on the way in which information is incorporated... View Details

April 2008 (Revised December 2008)
Case

Leveraged Loans 2007

By: Andre F. Perold and Erik Stafford

The leveraged loan market was in a crisis during the summer of 2007, following many years of low realized volatility (less than 4% per annum), an index of leveraged loans had fallen over 5% in the month of July. A sudden drop in capital market prices for an asset class... View Details

Keywords: History; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Financial Crisis; Market Transactions; Disruption; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competitive Strategy; Capital Markets; Crisis Management; Commercial Banking; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry

September 2015
Article

Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy C. Stein and Robert W. Vishny

We examine the business model of traditional commercial banks when they compete with shadow banks. While both types of intermediaries create safe "money-like" claims, they go about this in different ways. Traditional banks create money-like claims by holding illiquid... View Details

Keywords: Shadow Banking; Safe Money-like Claims; Commercial Banking

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2024
Article

Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Interest Rates; Bonds; Financial Markets

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June 2007 (Revised March 2008)
Case

Zoots - Financing Growth (A)

By: Michael J. Roberts, William A. Sahlman and Todd Krasnow

Traces the genesis and founding of Zoots, the largest chain of dry cleaning establishments in the U.S. Founded by some of the founders of the very successful Staples chain, the company raises a very large amount of capital without fully proving its business model, and... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Decision Choices and Conditions; Venture Capital; Financial Strategy; Investment Return; Growth and Development Strategy; Valuation; United States

July 2009 (Revised June 2015)
Case

Citigroup's Exchange Offer

By: Robin Greenwood and James Quinn

Citigroup faced considerable distress in early 2009. In late 2008, the bank had accepted $45 billion in preferred equity from the United States government via the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Yet, the stock had continued to slide in early 2009. In late... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Capital Markets; Banks and Banking; Stocks; Price; Globalized Markets and Industries; Financial Services Industry

2018
Chapter

Behavioral Household Finance

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian

This chapter provides an overview of household finance. The first part summarizes key facts regarding household financial behavior, emphasizing empirical regularities that are inconsistent with the standard classical economic model and discussing extensions of the... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Global Range; Household; Behavior; Strategy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Product Design; Welfare

September 2009 (Revised June 2011)
Supplement

Citigroup's Exchange Offer (B)

By: Robin Greenwood and James Quinn

Citigroup faced considerable distress in early 2009. In late 2008, the bank had accepted $45 billion in preferred equity from the United States government via the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Yet, the stock had continued to slide in early 2009. In late... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Financial Services Industry

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