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Publications

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  • January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
  • Case

Forecasting the Great Depression

By: Walter A. Friedman
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
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  • 21 Aug 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, August 21, 2018

accuracy of daily sales forecasts. We collaborated with an online apparel retailer to assemble a dataset that combines (1) detailed internal operational information, including data on sales, advertising, and promotions, as well as (2)... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 2023
  • Article

Post Hoc Explanations of Language Models Can Improve Language Models

By: Satyapriya Krishna, Jiaqi Ma, Dylan Slack, Asma Ghandeharioun, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in performing complex tasks. Moreover, recent research has shown that incorporating human-annotated rationales (e.g., Chain-of-Thought prompting) during in-context learning can significantly enhance... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Performance Effectiveness
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  • Mar 2020
  • Conference Presentation

A New Analysis of Differential Privacy's Generalization Guarantees

By: Christopher Jung, Katrina Ligett, Seth Neel, Aaron Roth, Saeed Sharifi-Malvajerdi and Moshe Shenfeld
We give a new proof of the "transfer theorem" underlying adaptive data analysis: that any mechanism for answering adaptively chosen statistical queries that is differentially private and sample-accurate is also accurate out-of-sample. Our new proof is elementary and... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Transfer Theorem; Mathematical Methods
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  • Teaching Interest

Overview

Paul is primarily interested in teaching data science to management students through the case method. This includes technical topics (programming and statistics) as well as higher-level management issues (digital transformation, data governance, etc.) As a research... View Details
Keywords: A/B Testing; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Algorithm; Algorithm Bias; Algorithmic Bias; Algorithmic Fairness; Algorithms; Analytics; Application Program Interface; Artificial Intelligence; Causality; Causal Inference; Computing; Computers; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Data Architecture; Data As A Service; Data Centers; Data Governance; Data Labeling; Data Management; Data Manipulation; Data Mining; Data Ownership; Data Privacy; Data Protection; Data Science; Data Science And Analytics Management; Data Scientists; Data Security; Data Sharing; Data Strategy; Data Visualization; Database; Data-driven Decision-making; Data-driven Management; Data-driven Operations; Datathon; Economics Of AI; Economics Of Innovation; Economics Of Information System; Economics Of Science; Forecast; Forecast Accuracy; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Information Technology; Machine Learning; Machine Learning Models; Prediction; Prediction Error; Predictive Analytics; Predictive Models; Analysis; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Applications and Software; Digital Transformation; Information Management; Digital Strategy; Technology Adoption
  • 05 Dec 2023
  • Research & Ideas

Lessons in Decision-Making: Confident People Aren't Always Correct (Except When They Are)

vote for the accuracy of their own solution to each task. These decisions served to find out whether the aggregate outcomes that emerge from people self-selecting into participating more or less aggressively in an auction, market, or... View Details
Keywords: by Kara Baskin
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

PRIMO: Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes

By: Seth Neel
We introduce a new differentially private regression setting we call Private Regression in Multiple Outcomes (PRIMO), inspired the common situation where a data analyst wants to perform a set of l regressions while preserving privacy, where the covariates... View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2019
  • Article

An Empirical Study of Rich Subgroup Fairness for Machine Learning

By: Michael J Kearns, Seth Neel, Aaron Leon Roth and Zhiwei Steven Wu
Kearns et al. [2018] recently proposed a notion of rich subgroup fairness intended to bridge the gap between statistical and individual notions of fairness. Rich subgroup fairness picks a statistical fairness constraint (say, equalizing false positive rates across... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Fairness; AI and Machine Learning
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  • August 2019
  • Article

When and How to Diversify—A Multicategory Utility Model for Personalized Content Recommendation

By: Yicheng Song, Nachiketa Sahoo and Elie Ofek
Sometimes we desire change, a break from the same or an opportunity to fulfill different aspects of our needs. Noting that consumers seek variety, several approaches have been developed to diversify items recommended by personalized recommender systems. However,... View Details
Keywords: Recommender Systems; Personalization; Recommendation Diversity; Variety Seeking; Collaborative Filtering; Consumer Utility Models; Digital Media; Clickstream Analysis; Learning-to-rank; Consumer Behavior; Media; Customization and Personalization; Strategy; Mathematical Methods
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  • December 2023
  • Article

When Should the Off-Grid Sun Shine at Night? Optimum Renewable Generation and Energy Storage Investments

By: Christian Kaps, Simone Marinesi and Serguei Netessine
Globally, 1.5 billion people live off the grid, their only access to electricity often limited to operationally-expensive fossil fuel generators. Solar power has risen as a sustainable and less costly option, but its generation is variable during the day and... View Details
Keywords: Energy; Renewable Energy
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  • 22 Feb 2024
  • Research & Ideas

How to Make AI 'Forget' All the Private Data It Shouldn't Have

income of any one person. Even if you subtract the two numbers, there's a margin of error now where it gives you the guarantee [that] there's no way someone could really figure out with a certain degree of accuracy what your income is.... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Technology; Information Technology
  • Web

Students on the Job Market - Doctoral

goods. By synergizing data from 274 previously conducted experiments, our IRL model not only improves the targeting accuracy of tested interventions but also significantly outperforms existing methods in targeting untested interventions... View Details
  • 02 May 2023
  • What Do You Think?

How Should Artificial Intelligence Be Regulated—if at All?

Do you want learning based on all the information, good and bad, in the world? Or should some sources be banned? And how about output? Should certain uses of the output be limited? Should disclaimers as to the accuracy of work based on AI... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett; Information Technology; Technology
  • Web

2.1.2 Using ChatGPT & Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools - MBA

be inaccurate, misleading, or entirely fabricated (sometimes called “hallucinations”), or may contain copyrighted material. Students must review all AI-generated content very carefully, recognizing that they are ultimately responsible for the View Details
  • 03 Mar 2023
  • Research & Ideas

When Showing Know-How Backfires for Women Managers

skills, might spend more time checking the accuracy of their teams’ work instead of devising budgets. Women scientists might focus more on interacting with students and staff instead of writing grants or working with donors. In essence,... View Details
Keywords: by Kara Baskin; Retail; Consumer Products
  • 01 Dec 2023
  • News

Thinking Ahead

As we wind down 2023, there’s talk everywhere of generative AI and how it will fundamentally alter the world as we know it; but how does that translate for your corner of the business world? Is TikTok something you need to take seriously? (Is it time to dance?) We... View Details
Keywords: Julia Hanna; Illustrations by Chris Gash; News, Library, Internet, and Other Services; Information
  • Web

Propose an Independent Project - MBA

the accuracy of any information posted to the site, to check the background or suitability of any individual seeking to participate in a independent project project, or to assess the suitability of any potential independent project... View Details
  • 06 Jul 2023
  • News

Lessons from Major League Baseball's Game-Changing Innovations

that's been mentioned a few times in this conversation already. And that's robot umpires. What is that in reaction to, and where is it in terms of testing? CM: That one is interesting because I think the genesis of that is more around View Details
  • Web

Request the Data - Leadership

acknowledge that while every effort has been made to ensure the high quality and accuracy of the information, Harvard Business School makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the information. Harvard does not guarantee the... View Details
  • 20 Apr 2011
  • Research & Ideas

Blind Spots: We’re Not as Ethical as We Think

situations. When you are able to project yourself into a future situation, almost as if you were actually in it, you can better anticipate which motivations will be most powerful and prepare to manage them. The point of increasing your View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne