Risk And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research

Bank Capital and the Growth of Private Credit

We show that business development companies (BDCs) — closed-end funds that provide a significant share of nonbank loans to middle market firms — are very well capitalized according to bank capital frameworks. They have median risk-based capital ratios of about 36% and,... View Details

08 Aug 2017
First Look

First Look at Research and Ideas, August 8, 2017

management themes and maternal outcomes. Results: Proactive management of unit culture and nursing was associated with a significantly higher risk of primary cesarean delivery... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

16 Mar 2023
Blog Post

HySynergy and Crossbridge Energy

“chicken-and-egg” problem: Every energy producer needs off-takers (buyers) and the cooperative strategy between HySynergy and Crossbridge Energy reduces the first-mover risk in... View Details

2020
Working Paper

Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender

By: Clarissa Hauptmann, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi

We examine the relationship between the gender of executives and corporate creditor recovery rates. Using 2,288 defaulted debt instruments, we find that female executives are associated with higher creditor recovery rates. Our findings are robust to tests that correct... View Details

Keywords: Executive Gender; Default; Recovery Rates; Debt; Corporate Bonds; Conservatism; Leadership; Gender; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Risk Management

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Male Circumcision and HIV/AIDS: The Macroeconomic Effects of a Health Crises (with Eric Werker and Brian Wendell)

Theories abound on the possible impact of AIDS on economic growth and savings in Africa; yet there have been surprisingly few empirical studies to test the mixed theoretical predictions. In this paper, we examine the impact of the AIDS epidemic on African nations... View Details

March 2021
Article

Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment

By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details

Keywords: Visual Perception; Bayesian Modeling; Perception; Judgments

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June 2012
Article

Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit

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30 Sep 2014
Working Paper Summaries

The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Financial Constraints, Exporters, and Firm Investment

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari & Fabio Kanczuk

Article

Guilt Enhances the Sense of Control and Drives Risky Judgments

By: Maryam Kouchaki, Christopher Oveis and F. Gino

The present studies investigate the hypothesis that guilt influences risk-taking by enhancing one's sense of control. Across multiple inductions of guilt, we demonstrate that experimentally induced guilt enhances optimism about risks for the self (Study 1), preferences... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Emotions

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16 Apr 2013
Working Paper Summaries

The Auditing Oligopoly and Lobbying on Accounting Standards

Keywords: by Abigail M. Allen, Karthik Ramanna & Sugata Roychowdhury; Accounting; Banking

November 2024 (Revised December 2024)
Case

Moonfare and the Democratization of Private Equity

By: Victoria Ivashina and Srimayi Mylavarapu

Founded in 2016, Moonfare headquartered in Europe, was a pioneer in the “democratization” of private equity investments. Historically, private equity was accessible only to institutional investors like pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and large family... View Details

Keywords: Private Equity; Customers; Wealth; Business Strategy; Segmentation; Technological Innovation; Product Launch; Financial Services Industry; Europe

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2025
Working Paper

Global Evidence on Gender Gaps and Generative AI

By: Nicholas G. Otis, Solène Delecourt, Katelynn Cranney and Rembrand Koning

Generative AI has the potential to transform productivity and reduce inequality, but only if adopted broadly. In this paper, we show that recently identified gender gaps in generative AI use are nearly universal. Synthesizing data from 18 studies covering more than... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Technology Adoption; Behavior

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13 Aug 2019
News

How hobbies can improve your happiness and productivity at work

22 Jan 2014
Working Paper Summaries

Separating Homophily and Peer Influence with Latent Space

Keywords: by Joseph P. Davin, Sunil Gupta & Mikołaj Jan Piskorski

2009
Working Paper

Virtual Team Learning: Reflecting and Acting, Alone or With Others

By: Deborah L. Soule and Lynda M. Applegate

This paper examines virtual team learning in new product development situations. New product development activities manifest novelty, uncertainty and complexity, presenting an extreme need for learning in the course of the work. We present data from an exploratory... View Details

Keywords: Competency and Skills; Learning; Knowledge Acquisition; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Product Development; Groups and Teams; Behavior

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09 Mar 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Causes and Consequences of Firm Disclosures of Anticorruption Efforts

Keywords: by Paul Healy & George Serafeim

January 2017
Case

T. Rowe Price and the Dell Inc. MBO (A)

By: Lena G. Goldberg

T. Rowe Price’s mutual funds, separate accounts, institutional investors, and retirement accounts were, in the aggregate, Dell Inc.’s third largest shareholder in 2013 when Dell announced a management-led buyout, or MBO, structured as a merger. In considering whether... View Details

Keywords: Fiduciary Duties; Management Buy-out; Mergers and Acquisitions; Valuation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Financial Services Industry; Computer Industry; Delaware

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October 1992 (Revised September 1993)
Case

L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

L.L. Bean must make stocking decisions on thousands of items sold through its catalogs. In many cases, orders must be placed with vendors twelve or more weeks before a catalog lands on a customer's doorstep, and commitments cannot be changed thereafter. As a result,... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Cost Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Demand and Consumers; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Retail Industry; United States

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09 Apr 2019
First Look

New Research and Ideas, April 9, 2019

Western firms sought access to resources, and they faced little political risk due to Western imperialism. The main risks were logistical due to infrastructure View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

Fourth Quarter 2017
Article

Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham

We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in U.S. equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size (a very persistent... View Details

Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Beta; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Factor Investing