Publications

October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

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June 2003
Case

Peabody Simpson at the Crossroads

By: Rajiv Lal, Nitin Nohria and Leslie Freeman

Three managing directors at Peabody Simpson had just returned from a firm-wide recruiting event at Columbia University, which they had covered together, as all were alumni. They were commiserating about having to submit revised forecasts to their division heads by the... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Recruitment; Reports; Organizational Design

November 2006 (Revised March 2008)
Case

Kendall Square Research Corporation

By: F. Warren McFarlan

Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. Sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993 and the company sold stock to the public for the first time. Analysts forecast higher earnings for 1993, then the company's revenue recognition... View Details

Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Standards; Accounting Audits; Computer Industry

July 2002 (Revised March 2005)
Case

Kendall Square Research Corporation (A) (Abridged)

By: William J. Bruns Jr. and F. Warren McFarlan

Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. Sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993, and the company sold stock to the public for the first time. Analysts forecasted higher earnings for 1993, then the company's revenue recognition... View Details

Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Standards; Accounting Audits; Computer Industry

05 May 2022
HBS Seminar

Caleb Kwon, Harvard Business School

February 2017
Case

GE Digital

By: Rajiv Lal and Scott Johnson

Known for manufacturing industrial equipment, GE has decided to invest in software and analytics capabilities to become a digital industrial company. They have also created a software platform that they hope will power the Industrial Internet. GE executives forecasted... View Details

Keywords: GE; General Electric; Manufacturing; Industrial Internet; Wind Power; Digital Manufacturing; Renewable Energy; Energy; Innovation and Management; Innovation Strategy; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Applications and Software; Growth and Development Strategy; Transformation; Green Technology Industry; Technology Industry; Manufacturing Industry; North America

Research Summary

Entrepreneurial Management

By: Howard H. Stevenson

Howard H. Stevenson is researching and writing on the need for and consequences of predictability. In work designed for a managerial audience, he is examining the roles played by organizations, cultures, and ethical systems in enabling individuals to predict the... View Details

January 1980 (Revised April 1994)
Case

New Balance Athletic Shoes

By: Kim B. Clark

Faced with growth exceeding 100% per year, James Davis, president of New Balance, must decide how to meet the need for additional capacity. Several factors contribute to a climate of extreme uncertainty. Several options are considered, ranging from a second shift to... View Details

Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Information; Growth Management; Organizational Design; Performance Capacity; Risk and Uncertainty; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Republic of Ireland

September 1992 (Revised March 1997)
Case

Summit Distributors (A)

By: William J. Bruns Jr. and Amy P. Hutton

Summit Distributors was in danger of violating loan covenants because of slow economic activity and forecasted losses and was faced with a choice. Changing the inventory valuation method from LIFO to FIFO would avoid default but would require higher future income... View Details

Keywords: Taxation; Cost Accounting; Cash Flow; Interest Rates; Economic Systems; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Statements; Valuation; Accounting Audits; Financing and Loans; Accounting Industry; Legal Services Industry

07 Jul 2015
News

Harvard Business School Historian Wins Best Book Prize

March–April 2023
Article

Market Segmentation Trees

By: Ali Aouad, Adam Elmachtoub, Kris J. Ferreira and Ryan McNellis

Problem definition: We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision making. Methodology/results: We propose a general methodology, market segmentation trees (MSTs), for learning market... View Details

Keywords: Decision Trees; Computational Advertising; Market Segmentation; Analytics and Data Science; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Marketplace Matching; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing

July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
Background Note

Note on Comparative Advantage

By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman

Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory

Lassiter argues that the world needs to get nuclear power back into the race against fossil fuels in order to avoid significant levels of CO2 emission-driven climate change. The world’s energy experts forecast that CO2 emissions will increase for the foreseeable... View Details

January 1995
Background Note

A Note on Distribution of Venture Investments

By: Josh Lerner

Venture capitalists typically exit investments by distributing shares to investors. These transfers pose challenges for these investors. Predictions and evidence about the behavior of stock prices of firms around the time of these distributions are presented. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Stocks; Investment; Price

July – August 2008
Article

When Virtue Is a Vice

By: Anat Keinan and Ran Kivetz

Choosing duty over pleasure today can cause regret down the road—whereas regret over the reverse is fleeting. Marketers of luxury products and services should consider prompting customers to predict their future feelings about choices made now. View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Moral Sensibility; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Emotions; Luxury

16 Mar 2009
Research & Ideas

When the Internet Runs Out of IP Addresses

The Internet is running out of room. Experts predict that in two or three years we will run out of Web addresses, so-called IP addresses, that can be assigned to new Internet-based sites and services. Each... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Telecommunications

13 Nov 2019
Research & Ideas

Don't Turn Your Marketing Function Over to AI Just Yet

Imagine a future in which a smart marketing machine can predict the needs and habits of individual consumers and the dynamics of competitors across industries and markets. This device would collect data to answer strategic questions, guide managerial decisions, and... View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz

September 2004 (Revised December 2005)
Case

Chardonnay Shortage at Mondavi Winery, The

Mondavi Winery is facing a shortage of its Chardonnay wine. This shortage will disrupt its positioning in wine outlets and impact earnings. Allows students to discuss how to communicate such temporary--but financially important--shocks to the capital markets and... View Details

Keywords: Plant-Based Agribusiness; Business Earnings; Production; System Shocks; Capital Markets; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry