Publications

03 Jun 2016
News

Again in a Great City

investment in improving everyday life in Detroit by a national retailer—that people didn’t believe could happen in the city. “Uncertainty is a horrible constraint for investment,” Cummings says of Detroit’s financial chaos prior to the bankruptcy. “Now the View Details

Keywords: April White; photographed by Brian Kelly

Web

Global Entrepreneurship - Course Catalog

in emerging markets must be adept at navigating these diverse funding sources and developing resilient financial strategies to weather the uncertainties inherent in such economies. The fourth module examines differences in legal and... View Details

01 Dec 2012
News

Corruption 101

that underlie corruption everywhere. As an emerging professional he must also carefully weigh the trust value of the personal relationships he is forming; his own comfort zone for ethical trade-offs; and the inherent uncertainties of... View Details

Keywords: Crop Production; Agriculture; Credit Intermediation and Related Activities; Finance

29 Jan 2015
Op-Ed

The Fall of Greece

experience and rather disappointing professional careers. One can check this easily by searching on Google the members of the new government. My sense is that 2015 will be another year of great uncertainty for Greeks as the new government... View Details

Keywords: by George Serafeim

13 Jun 2014
News

The Art of Effecting Change

so years, when much of the world faced financial uncertainty and many negative voices were directed at the business sector, I am grateful to HBS for stepping forward and providing innovation in the business school curriculum but also with... View Details

Keywords: Jill Radsken; Arts, Entertainment

Forthcoming
Article

Who Values Democracy?

By: Max Miller

This paper examines the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation

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Article

The Board's New Innovation Imperative: Directors Need to Rethink Their Roles and Their Attitude to Risk

By: Linda A. Hill and George Davis

As firms scramble for competitive advantage, boards—once the cautious voices urging management to mitigate risk—are now calling for breakthrough innovation. Indeed, avoiding risk is now seen as the riskiest proposition of all. In speaking with CEOs and board members... View Details

Keywords: Governing and Advisory Boards; Innovation Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Governance

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1 Mar 2013 - 2 Mar 2013
Conference Presentation

The Value of Flexibility in Baseball Roster Construction

By: Timothy Chan and Douglas S. Fearing

Drawing inspiration from the theory of production flexibility in manufacturing networks, we provide the first optimization-based analysis of the value of positional flexibility (the ability of a player to play multiple positions) for a major league baseball team in the... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Design; Production; Resource Allocation; Groups and Teams; Adaptation; Sports

April 2023
Article

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Amy Wang Huber

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance

August 2017 (Revised August 2018)
Case

Veracity Worldwide: Evaluating FCPA-Related Risks in West Africa

By: Aldo Musacchio and Sophus A. Reinert

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Business and Government Relations; Crime and Corruption; Emerging Markets; Africa

2015
Working Paper

Banks' Risk Exposures

By: Juliane Begenau, Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider

This paper studies U.S. banks' exposure to interest rate and credit risk. We exploit the factor structure in interest rates to represent many bank positions in terms of simple factor portfolios. This approach delivers time varying measures of exposure that are... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Credit; Banks and Banking; United States

January 2, 2008
Editorial

A Better Way to Pay CEOs: Smarter Incentives Could Reduce the Risks They Pursue

By: A. Zelleke

Keywords: Compensation and Benefits; Management; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty

September 2011
Case

Veracity Worldwide: Evaluating FCPA-Related Risks in West Africa

By: Aldo Musacchio

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Business and Government Relations; Crime and Corruption; Emerging Markets; Africa

August 2023
Article

Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée

This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details

Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation

November 2007 (Revised February 2011)
Case

The Ice King

By: Tom Nicholas and Sandra Nicholas

Provides an opportunity to examine the risk-reward tradeoff and the travails of entrepreneurial venturing in the nascent U.S. economy. Traces the origins and development of Frederic Tudor's Ice Company, a business which developed during the 19th century to hack chunks... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Cost vs Benefits; Entrepreneurship; Globalization; Business History; Operations; Risk and Uncertainty; United States

March 2008
Article

Functional Imaging of Decision Conflict

By: J. B. Pochon, Jason Riis, A. Sanfey, L. Nystrom and J. D. Cohen

Decision conflict occurs when people feel uncertain as to which option to choose from a set of similarly attractive (or unattractive) options, with many studies demonstrating that this conflict can lead to suboptimal decision making. In this article, we investigate the... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Judgments; Risk and Uncertainty; Science; Conflict and Resolution; Perception

2008
Book

Predictable Surprises

By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

June 2020 (Revised September 2020)
Case

Shellye Archambeau: Becoming a CEO (A)

By: Tsedal Neeley and John Masko

With the economy in a freefall, MetricStream is losing customers, hemorrhaging cash and struggling to make payroll. Several board members are threatening to quit. Others are pressing to sell the company even at dismally low valuations. It’s 2008 and lightning has... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Race; Gender; Leadership Style; Risk and Uncertainty; Change; Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making; Personal Development and Career; Technology Industry; California

June 2005 (Revised January 2006)
Case

Investment Policy at the Hewlett Foundation (2005)

By: Luis M. Viceira

In early January 2005, Laurance Hoagland Jr., VP and CIO of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (HF), and his investment team met to finish their recommendations to the HF Investment Committee for a new asset allocation policy for the foundation's investment... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Public Equity; Globalization; Investment; Property; Risk Management; Asset Management; Financial Services Industry