Publications

April 2002 (Revised July 2002)
Case

Imagicast

By: John T. Gourville and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld

Imagicast has brought to market an interactive, multimedia retail kiosk designed to increase product sales. In spite of promising projections by industry analysts and detailed demand forecasts by Imagicast management, the company has yet to sell a single kiosk. Time... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Sales; Technology; Retail Industry; United States

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2011
Chapter

Prospective Codes Fufilled: A Potential Neural Mechanism of Will

By: Thalia Wheatley and Christine E. Looser

One of my few shortcomings is that I can’t predict the future.
Lars Ulrich, Metallica.

Lars Ulrich was right and wrong. He was right in the way we most often think about the future—as a long stretch of time during which multiply... View Details

Keywords: Free Will; Neuroscience; Responsibility; Prospection; Forecasting and Prediction; Science; Cognition and Thinking

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September 2002
Case

Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand

By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg

Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry

Keywords: Garry Emmons and Julia Hanna; Latin America; research; infrastructure; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments

01 Dec 2000
News

Latin America's Decade

clear that the business models that succeed in the Internet sector and e-commerce in emerging markets such as Latin America will resemble those in the United States," says Kennedy. Despite this lag time, the Net is nonetheless causing... View Details

Research Summary

Voluntary Disclosure

Professor Kimbrough's early work focused on the determinants and economic consequences of firms’ disclosure practices related to earnings. This included examinations of management forecasts and earnings-related conference calls. View Details

January 1999 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Advanced Technologies, Inc.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The CEO of a semiconductor equipment manufacturer is assessing the financial forecasts and financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Continued rapid growth will create substantial financing pressures, especially if profitability fails to recover and/or if... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Earnings Management; Financial Condition; Financial Reporting; Risk and Uncertainty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Outcome or Result; Growth and Development; Crisis Management; Profit; Financial Strategy; Semiconductor Industry; Manufacturing Industry

21 Mar 2024
News

OC Alumni Get Clarity on AI; Inequality and Climate Change Explored in DC

Clubs News Clubs News Demystifying AI at Orange County Leadership Breakfast At its first HBS Leadership Breakfast event since before the pandemic, the HBS Association of Orange County (HBSAOC) tackled the potential of AI with a talk titled The Dawning of Artificial... View Details

Keywords: Margie Kelley

12 Jul 2016
First Look

July 12, 2016

Calibrating the model to data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S., the optimal capital requirement is around 20%. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51305 Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Rethinking Nuclear: Can We Change the World’s Cumulative Carbon Emissions Soon Enough?

Today’s existing nuclear power alternatives as well as renewables are currently forecast by the EIA and IEA to be losing the race with fossil fuels worldwide and are expected to continue do so for the forecast future. A suite of *new* nuclear power... View Details

June 2023
Case

Tractor Supply Co

By: David L. Ager and Michael A. Roberto

In February 2023, Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Co, the largest farm and ranch retailer in the United States reflected on the company’s 70% growth between 2019 and 2022. Economists had begun to predict an economic downturn and experts were predicting softening... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Demand and Consumers; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Retail Industry

09 Dec 2019
News

Identify Great Customers from Their First Purchase

January 2008
Background Note

Equity Options

By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford

The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value

April 2003 (Revised December 2006)
Case

ZARA: Fast Fashion

By: Pankaj Ghemawat and Jose Luis Nueno

Focuses on Inditex, an apparel retailer from Spain, which has set up an extremely quick response system for its ZARA chain. Instead of predicting months before a season starts what women will want to wear, ZARA observes what's selling and what's not and continuously... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Multinational Firms and Management; Competitive Advantage; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Spain

December 1970 (Revised September 2006)
Case

Harmon Foods, Inc.

Prediction and shipment has been a scheduling and budgetary problem. Multiple regression is suggested as a solution. Evaluation of regression coefficients leads to better understanding of trend, seasonality, and promotion effectiveness. View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

March 1980 (Revised February 1987)
Case

Sweco, Inc. (A)

By: Michael E. Porter and George S. Yip

Describes Sweco's decision about whether to enter the mud-processing equipment industry (used in oil well drilling). This is an internal entry decision, and the case describes Sweco's existing businesses as well as the mud-processing industry and competitors. The case... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Analytics and Data Science; Market Entry and Exit; Competition

February 2006 (Revised September 2007)
Background Note

Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

Discusses platform structure in new networked markets, that is, whether a market that exhibits network effects will be served by a single platform or by rival platforms. Defines "platforms" and "platform structure"; describes factors that influence the odds that a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Growth Management; Network Effects; Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web

June 2023 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Optimalen Capital

By: Malcolm Baker, Elisabeth Kempf and Jonathan Wallen

A new client portfolio manager at a quantitative investment management firm must explain why her firm, Optimalen Capital, has rebalanced a client portfolio with a set of trades that seem unintuitive. In particular, Optimalen has added to its position of Walmart (ticker... View Details

Keywords: Investments; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Investment Portfolio; Asset Pricing