Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Strategy Execution - Course Catalog

that motivates people to help others achieve shared goals. Adapting to change: You will learn how to identify the strategic uncertainties that could upend your strategy, build early warning systems, and adapt current strategies to... View Details

22 Mar 2011
First Look

First Look: March 22

information about a company he or she manages. The student must make decisions about pollution-reducing investments and production levels in the face of uncertainty about pollution permit prices. Students form groups of five, and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

23 Mar 2020
Research & Ideas

Product Disasters Can Be Fertile Ground for Innovation

innovation by creating uncertainty and convince risk-averse companies to pull back on R&D. When a bicyclist was killed by an Uber autonomous car in Arizona in 2018, for example, the company suspended the program—even though the crash... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Health; Medical Devices & Supplies

April 2024
Article

Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter

We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details

Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

2016
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Financial Markets; Business Earnings; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty

April 1975 (Revised November 1984)
Case

Enzone Petroleum Corp.

By: Thomas R. Piper

A large integrated oil company is debating whether to switch from a single hurdle rate to multiple hurdle rates for project analysis purposes. Raises questions on: 1) determination of the cost of equity; 2) the usefulness of multiple hurdle rates to adjust for project... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost; Investment Return; Equity; Capital Budgeting; Energy Industry

July 2017 (Revised November 2017)
Case

Media Markets Down South: Goldman Sachs' Investment in Grupo Clarín

By: Rafael Di Tella, Jose Liberti and Sarah McAra

Founded in 1945, Grupo Clarín expanded over several decades to become Argentina’s largest media conglomerate. With leading positions in newspapers, broadcast television, broadcast radio, cable television, and Internet services, Grupo Clarín caught the attention of... View Details

Keywords: Media; Business and Government Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Initial Public Offering; Investment; Journalism and News Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Argentina

2005
Chapter

The Recovery Window: Organizational Learning Following Ambiguous Threats

By: A. Edmondson, Erika Ferlins, Laura Feldman and Richard Bohmer

Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Design; Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities

October 1993
Supplement

The Analyst's Dilemma (B)

By: Joseph L. Badaracco Jr. and Jerry Useem

Supplements the (A) case. View Details

Keywords: Investment Banking; Ethics; Risk and Uncertainty; Problems and Challenges; Financial Services Industry

June 2024
Case

Tremblant Capital: Launching an Active ETF

By: Robin Greenwood, Luis M. Viceira and Robert Ialenti

The case highlights deliberations led by Brett Barakett, CEO and chief investment officer of Tremblant Capital, just months prior to launching an actively managed ETF, Tremblant Global (TOGA). However, his team continued to have reservations around the launch. On the... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Funds; Product Launch; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry

2009
Working Paper

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market-rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities-led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Mortgages; Interest Rates; Price; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; United States

December 2003 (Revised April 2004)
Case

Blockbuster Inc. & Technological Substitution (B): Confronting New Digital Formats

Investigates how the rise of digital video formats threatens to make videocassette technology obsolete; how this technological substitution might alter the economics and structure of the video rental and retail industries; and how Blockbuster Inc., the industry leader,... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Decisions; Technological Innovation; Competition; Change Management; Service Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

May 2000 (Revised July 2000)
Case

U.S. Export-Import Bank and the Three Gorges Dam (A), The

By: George C. Lodge and Cate Reavis

Describes the dilemma Martin Kamarck faced as president of the Export-Import Bank in whether to provide U.S. companies financing for China's Three Gorges Dam project. View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; International Finance; Construction Industry; Energy Industry; China; United States

April 1996 (Revised March 1998)
Case

Lex Service PLC-- Cost of Capital

By: W. Carl Kester and Kendall Backstrand

Lex Service company has grown into a large multidivisional company with a substantial capital budget. In 1993, the board was reviewing its capital budgeting procedures. Specifically, it sought to determine the company's cost of capital and whether it should use... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost of Capital; Equity; Capital Budgeting

1996
Chapter

Measuring Risk and Return for Portfolios

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics

2022
Working Paper

The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans

By: Maria Loumioti and George Serafeim

Sustainability-linked loans (i.e., syndicated loans for which pricing is linked to a sustainability performance indicator) have rapidly evolved into a significant private debt product. We find that sustainability-linked lending has been available mostly to borrowers... View Details

Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainability Management; Credit Products; Loan Contracts; Loans; Corporate Finance; Credit Risk; Environment; ESG; ESG Ratings; Climate Change; Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Credit

February 2020
Article

Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard

By: Julian Zlatev, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin and Dale T. Miller

The motivation to feel moral powerfully guides people’s prosocial behavior. We propose that people’s efforts to preserve their moral self-regard conform to a moral threshold model. This model predicts that people are primarily concerned with whether their... View Details

Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Perception

Find at Harvard

July 2002 (Revised August 2002)
Supplement

Australia-Japan Cable: Structuring the Project Company

By: Benjamin C. Esty

Spreadsheet to (9-203-024). Download only. View Details

Keywords: Projects; Customers; System; Capital; Competition; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Telecommunications Industry; Australia; Japan

March 1999 (Revised October 1999)
Case

Tufts Health Plan

By: Richard M.J. Bohmer and Nancy D. Beaulieu

Describes the introduction of capitation by a managed care company and the challenges of managing financial risk in the Medicare population. Focuses on the relationship between the health plan and physicians. View Details

Keywords: Health; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Health Industry; Insurance Industry

1997
Other Unpublished Work

Maximizing Corporate Shareholder Value Using Risk Profile Dynamics

By: Marc L Bertoneche and Samir Asaf

Keywords: Value Creation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management

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