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June 2012 (Revised March 2014)
Case

Best Buy in Crisis

By: John R. Wells and Galen Danskin

In June 2012, Best Buy was in crisis. In 1996, Best Buy overtook Circuit City as the world's leader in consumer electronics retailing; however, 18 years later, Best Buy now found this position threatened. With $51 billion in revenues, it was still the biggest CE... View Details

Keywords: Change Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Competitive Strategy; Ethics; Management Teams; Consumer Products Industry; Electronics Industry; Retail Industry

June 2012
Article

Decoding Inside Information

By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski

Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trading. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms.... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Law Enforcement; Opportunities; Geographic Location; Business Earnings

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2016
Working Paper

The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand

By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman

To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details

Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Consumer Behavior; Service Delivery; Performance Expectations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Service Industry

October 2000
Article

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States

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January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)

By: John T. Gourville

One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

19 Jul 2016
First Look

July 19, 2016

downgraded its sales forecast for the coming year, suggesting sales would now be flat. Meanwhile, online retailer Amazon was growing rapidly and, despite being less than one-quarter of the size of Walmart, now boasted a higher market... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

24 Jan 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research: January 24, 2017

earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Mar 2013
First Look

First Look: March 5

issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs faced... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2010
Article

The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Are Not as Ethical as We Think We Are

By: A. E. Tenbrunsel, K. Diekmann, K A. Wade-Benzoni and Max Bazerman

This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and recollection is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Framework; Research; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias

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2011
Working Paper

The Flexible Substitution Logit: Uncovering Category Expansion and Share Impacts of Marketing Instruments

By: Qiang Liu, Thomas J. Steenburgh and Sachin Gupta

Different instruments are relevant for different marketing objectives (category demand expansion or market share stealing). To help brand managers make informed marketing mix decisions, it is essential that marketing mix models appropriately measure the different... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods

October 2002 (Revised January 2013)
Case

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts

By: Paul M. Healy

Krispy Kreme is a rapidly growing firm with a business model that has excited Wall Street. View Details

Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Reporting; Performance Evaluation; Business Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; New York (city, NY)

January 2001 (Revised March 2002)
Case

Ford Motor Company's Value Enhancement Plan

By: Andre F. Perold

In April 2000, Ford Motor Co. announced a shareholder Value Enhancement Plan (VEP) to significantly recapitalize the firm's ownership structure. Ford had accumulated $23 billion in cash reserves and under the VEP would return as much as $10 billion of this cash to... View Details

Keywords: Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Structure; Cash; Financial Liquidity; Policy; Business and Shareholder Relations; Value; Auto Industry

19 Jun 2007
First Look

First Look: June 19, 2007

demand which underpin the link between the three characteristics of the inventory system: inventory levels, orders placed and actual demand faced. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

November 2003 (Revised March 2004)
Case

Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom

By: Mihir A. Desai and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho

The Brazilian oil company, Petrobras, is evaluating the acquisition of an Argentine oil company, the Perez Companc Group (Pecom). The acquisition would increase Petrobras' oil reserves and expand its interests outside Brazil, a significant step for the largest company... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Non-Renewable Energy; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Corporate Governance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; State Ownership; Performance Evaluation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Energy Industry; Argentina; Brazil

27 Feb 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

Keywords: by Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen; Motion Pictures & Video

2012
Working Paper

~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation

By: Matthew Weinzierl

Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Framework; Policy; Taxation; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Efficiency; United States

July – August 2009
Article

The Descent of Finance

What if the current recession turns out to be like the Great Depression of 1929-1933? Four years from now, the United States might find itself with a still-shrinking economy, half as many banks as in 2009, a third as many hedge funds, and retail banking resembling a... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; International Finance; Globalized Economies and Regions; Business and Government Relations; Financial Services Industry

June 2007 (Revised August 2007)
Case

Dressen (Abridged) (A)

By: Thomas R. Piper

John Lynch, CEO of the Dressen Division of Westinghouse, was elated by the proposed leveraged buyout by the private equity firm, Warburg Pincus Ventures. The buyout would rid the division of a 'bad' parent and place the division's destiny in its own hands. A recently... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Private Equity; Bids and Bidding; Valuation

July 2001
Technical Note

Technical Note on LBO Valuation (B): The Equity Cash Flow Method of Valuation using CAPM

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Explains the equity cash flow method of valuation as it applies to leveraged buyouts. Also explains how to implement the changing cost of equity method using the CAPM. View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Equity; Valuation

July 1996 (Revised June 1998)
Case

Gillette Indonesia

By: John A. Quelch

The country manager of Gillette Indonesia is reviewing his 1996 marketing plan and considering whether the pace of market development and mix of product sales can be impacted by the level and type of Gillette expenditures in the market. View Details

Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Multinational Firms and Management; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Manufacturing Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Indonesia

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