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(2,918)
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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,918)
- News (463)
- Research (2,173)
- Events (40)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,400)
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- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
- Summer 2021
- Article
Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
- Article
Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage
By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton
We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details
Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment
DeCelles, K. A., and Michael I. Norton. "Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 20 (May 17, 2016): 5588–5591.
- March 2003
- Article
Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming
By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman
Watkins, Michael D., and Max H. Bazerman. "Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming." Harvard Business Review 81, no. 3 (March 2003). (Reprinted in H. Balanoff (Ed.), Public Administration, McGraw-Hill, 2004.)
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- February 2022
- Teaching Note
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI
By: Navid Mojir
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053. View Details
- 2005
- Article
Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises
By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins
Bazerman, M., and M. Watkins. "Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises." International Public Management Journal 8, no. 3 (2005): 365–377.
- fall 2004
- Article
Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)
By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
Bazerman, M., and Michael Watkins. "Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)." Compass 2, no. 1 (fall 2004): 42–43.
- 16 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Amount and Diversity of Digital Emotional Expression Predicts Happiness
- July– September 2002
- Article
Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models
By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models." International Journal of Forecasting 18, no. 3 (July– September 2002): 359–368.
- 21 Oct 2015
- Research & Ideas
How to Predict if a New Business Idea is Any Good
other once unlikely, now successful startups (LinkedIn similarly got more than 20 rejections back in 2003) seem to beg: How do you tell a good idea from a bad one? “With startups, especially high-growth startups, it’s extremely hard to View Details
- May 2018
- Article
The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness
By: Grant Edward Donnelly, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley and Michael I. Norton
Two samples of more than 4,000 millionaires reveal two primary findings. First, only at high levels of wealth—in excess of $8 million (Study 1) and $10 million (Study 2)—are wealthier millionaires happier than millionaires with lower levels of wealth, though these... View Details
Donnelly, Grant Edward, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley, and Michael I. Norton. "The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 44, no. 5 (May 2018): 684–699.
- Article
Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes
By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec
Kosinki, Michal, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Jure Leskovec. "Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes." Psychological Methods 21, no. 4 (December 2016): 493–506.
- 21 Jun 2013 - 22 Jun 2013
- Conference Presentation
Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors
By: Frank Nagle
Nagle, Frank. "Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors." Paper presented at the 11th ZEW Conference on the Economics of Information and Communication Technologies, Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, Germany, June 21–22, 2013.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development
By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial
intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions
highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and
algorithms)... View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
- August 2016
- Article
The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences
By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John
Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details
Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction
Barasz, Kate, Tami Kim, and Leslie K. John. "The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 53, no. 4 (August 2016): 597–607.
- November 2023
- Article
Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success
By: Yael Millgram, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey and Amit Goldenberg
People’s ability to regulate emotions is crucial to healthy emotional functioning. One overlooked aspect in emotion-regulation research is that knowledge about the source of emotions can vary across situations and individuals, which could impact people’s ability to... View Details
Millgram, Yael, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey, and Amit Goldenberg. "Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success." Psychological Science 34, no. 11 (November 2023): 1244–1255.
- October 2023
- Teaching Note
Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs
By: Jonas Heese and Jung Koo Kang
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 123-042. View Details
- December 2023
- Supplement
Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs
By: Jonas Heese and Jung Koo Kang
- Article
Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Stephen H. Bach and Jure Leskovec
Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Stephen H. Bach, and Jure Leskovec. "Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction." Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 22nd (2016).