Publications

The empirical literature finds mixed evidence on the existence of positive productivity externalities in the host country generated by foreign multinational companies. We propose a novel mechanism, which emphasizes the role of local financial markets in enabling... View Details

May 2020 (Revised July 2020)
Case

COVID-19: The Global Shutdown

By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong

In the first months of 2020, a pandemic overwhelmed the world. COVID-19, commonly known as the coronavirus, spread from China and created a severe public health emergency across countries. While an immediate fear of the disease’s impact on human life permeated society,... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Economy; Economic Systems; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Sectors; Health Pandemics

Educators

Purchase

March 2005
Article

Sovereign Debt As a Contingent Claim: A Quantitative Approach

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

We construct a dynamic equilibrium model with contingent service and adverse selection to quantitatively study sovereign debt. In the model, benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. For a wide set of parameters, the only equilibrium is one... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Interest Rates; Balance and Stability; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods; Management Style; Segmentation; Debt Securities; Banking Industry

Find at Harvard

2005
Working Paper

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods

Article

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortions and government... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return; Development Economics; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost; Interest Rates; Developing Countries and Economies; Welfare; United States; Brazil

Find at Harvard

December 2010
Article

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Motivation and Incentives; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Framework; Problems and Challenges; Interest Rates; Cost; Developing Countries and Economies; Service Operations

March 2013
Case

Currency Wars

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

In February 2013, the G-20 finance ministers met in Moscow, Russia to discuss the rising anxieties over a potential international currency war. It was speculated that certain countries were purposely devaluing their currencies in order to improve their competitiveness... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Competitiveness; Trade Policy; Devaluation; Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; Inflation Targeting; Capital Flows; Central Banking; Currency Exchange Rate; Competitive Strategy; Emerging Markets; Policy; Trade; Conflict and Resolution; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; Moscow

Educators

Purchase

January 22, 2015
Other Article

Are Capital Controls Effective? Firm-level Evidence from Brazil

By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari and Fabio Kanczuk

Capital controls are back in fashion. This column discusses new firm-level evidence from Brazil showing that capital controls segment international financial markets, reduce external financing, and lower firm-level investment. They disproportionately affect small,... View Details

November 2019
Case

Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation

By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong

For decades, Chile was heralded as South America’s pillar of stable economic growth. Chile was the world’s largest producer of copper and enjoyed a long period of over 30 years of world demand for its resources. In 2013, the commodity boom ended and was replaced by a... View Details

Keywords: Copper Production; Protests; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Metals and Minerals; Production; Price; Mining Industry; Chile

Educators

Purchase

Research Summary

India Transformed? Insights from the Firm Level 1988-2005 (with Anusha Chari)

Using firm-level data this paper analyzes, the transformation of India’s economic structure following the implementation of economic reforms. The focus of the study is on publicly-listed and unlisted firms from across a wide spectrum of manufacturing and services... View Details

2009
Working Paper

India Transformed: Insights from the Firm Level 1988-2005

By: Laura Alfaro and Anusha Chari

Using firm-level data this paper analyzes, the transformation of India's economic structure following the implementation of economic reforms. The focus of the study is on publicly-listed and unlisted firms from across a wide spectrum of manufacturing and services... View Details

Keywords: Transformation; Economic Sectors; Economy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Growth and Development Strategy; India

15 Aug 2006
First Look

First Look: August 15, 2006

Working PapersOptimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt Authors:Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk Abstract Most... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Research Summary

Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis

In recent decades, advances in information and communication technology and falling trade barriers have led firms to retain within their boundaries and in their domestic economies only a subset of their production stages. A key decision facing firms worldwide is the... View Details

Article

On the Political Economy of Temporary Stabilization Programs

This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Economy; Balance and Stability; Programs; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash; Value; Distribution

2009
Article

India Transformed: Insights from the Firm Level 1988–2007

By: Laura Alfaro and Anusha Chari

Using firm-level data, this paper analyzes the transformation of India's economic structure following the implementation of economic reforms. The focus of the study is on publicly listed and unlisted firms from across a wide spectrum of manufacturing and services... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Transformation; Economics; Ownership; Assets; Sales; Profit; Stock Shares; Private Sector; Investment Return; Manufacturing Industry; Service Industry; India

2019
Working Paper

Undisclosed Debt Sustainability

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

Over the past decade, non–Paris Club creditors, notably China, have become an important source of financing for low- and middle-income countries. In contrast with typical sovereign debt, these lending arrangements are not public, and other creditors have no information... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Transparency; Sustainability; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Information; China