• Research Summary

The Power of Paradox: Some Recent Developments in Interactive Epistemology

This survey describes a central paradox of game theory, viz. the Paradox of Backward Induction (BI). The paradox is that the BI outcome is often said to follow from basic game-theoretic principles--specifically, from the assumption that the players are rational. Yet,... View Details

• Article

Birds of a Feather...Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy

By: Hongyi Li and Eric J. Van den Steen

Does culture eat strategy for breakfast? This paper investigates the interactions among corporate culture, norms, and strategy, in order to better understand this issue and related questions. It first shows, through microfoundations, how the forces that drive toward... View Details

Keywords: Culture; Norms; Organizational Culture; Strategy; Values and Beliefs

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Li, Hongyi, and Eric J. Van den Steen. "Birds of a Feather...Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy." Strategy Science 6, no. 2 (June 2021): 166–189.

• 2024
• Working Paper

Advice and the Bayesian Entrepreneur

By: Susan Cohen and Rembrand Koning

Bayesian entrepreneurship starts from the premise that entrepreneurs’ beliefs guide their theorizing, experimentation, and choices (Agrawal et al., n.d.). Since each entrepreneur has unique beliefs based on their own set of past experiences, cognitive ability, and... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Decision Choices and Conditions

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Cohen, Susan, and Rembrand Koning. "Advice and the Bayesian Entrepreneur." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-029, November 2024.

• 2022
• Working Paper

Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand

We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks

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McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, January 2022.

• July 2008
• Article

Crime and Punishment in the 'American Dream'

By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra

We observe that countries where belief in the "American dream" (i.e., effort pays) prevails also set harsher punishment for criminals. We know that beliefs are also correlated with several features of the economic system (taxation, social insurance, etc). Our objective... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Economic Systems; Values and Beliefs; Law Enforcement; Mathematical Methods; Personal Characteristics; United States

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Di Tella, Rafael, and Juan Dubra. "Crime and Punishment in the 'American Dream'." Journal of Public Economics 92, no. 7 (July 2008).

• January 2015
• Article

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which... View Details

Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing; Returns; Investing; Asset Pricing; Investment Return

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Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–24.

• Forthcoming
• Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets." Journal of Finance (forthcoming).

• 2015
• Working Paper

Understanding Conformity: An Experimental Investigation

By: B. Douglas Bernheim and Christine L Exley

Some theories of conformity hold that social equilibrium either standardizes inferences or promotes a shared understanding of conventions and norms among individuals with fixed heterogeneous preferences (belief mechanisms). Others depict tastes as fluid and hence... View Details

Keywords: Conformity; Norms; Image Motivation; Prosocial Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Standards

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Bernheim, B. Douglas, and Christine L Exley. "Understanding Conformity: An Experimental Investigation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-070, December 2015.

• 2019
• Working Paper

Birds of a Feather ... Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy

By: Hongyi Li and Eric J. Van den Steen

This paper analyzes how shared beliefs and preferences (or values) cause the emergence of social norms; why people may enforce norms that go against their own beliefs and preferences/values; and how this may cause a disconnect to develop between the... View Details

Keywords: Culture; Norms; Values and Beliefs; Organizational Culture; Strategy

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Li, Hongyi, and Eric J. Van den Steen. "Birds of a Feather ... Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-045, October 2019.

• 02 Jul 2014
• What Do You Think?

Are Today’s Business Heroes Challenging Our Ideas About Leadership?

Summing Up Is There Really a Formula for Great Leadership? The overall sense of responses to our question for the month is that the leadership stars of today—Jobs, Bezos, Gates, etc.,—should not cause us to change our time-honored ideas about great leadership. Among... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

• 2011
• Working Paper

Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals

By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra

We describe the evolution of selective aspects of punishment in the U.S. over the period 1980-2004. We note that imprisonment increased around 1980, a period that coincides with the "Reagan revolution" in economic matters. We build an economic model where beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Economy; Moral Sensibility; Mathematical Methods; Opportunities; Behavior; United States

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Di Tella, Rafael, and Juan Dubra. "Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 17309, August 2011.

• 2012
• Working Paper

An Outside-Inside Evolution in Gender and Professional Work

By: Lakshmi Ramarajan, Kathleen McGinn and Deborah Kolb

We study the process by which a professional service firm reshaped its activities and beliefs over nearly two decades as it adapted to shifts in the social discourse regarding gender and work. Analyzing archival data from the firm over eighteen years and... View Details

Keywords: Professional Service Firms; Social Institutions; Organizational Learning; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Employment; Gender; Society; Service Industry

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Ramarajan, Lakshmi, Kathleen McGinn, and Deborah Kolb. "An Outside-Inside Evolution in Gender and Professional Work." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-051, November 2012. (Work in progress for requested submission, Research in Organizational Behavior.)

• 22 Sep 2020
• Working Paper Summaries

Older People Are Less Pessimistic about the Health Risks of COVID-19

Keywords: by Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer

• May 2021
• Article

Is No News (Perceived as) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure

By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin

This paper uses laboratory experiments to directly test a central prediction of disclosure theory: that strategic forces can lead those who possess private information to voluntarily provide it. In a simple sender-receiver game, we find that senders disclose favorable... View Details

Keywords: Communication Games; Disclosure; Unraveling; Experiments; Information; Product; Quality; Communication; Consumer Behavior

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Jin, Ginger Zhe, Michael Luca, and Daniel Martin. "Is No News (Perceived as) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 13, no. 2 (May 2021): 141–173.