Publications

September 2008
Article

Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann

This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States

January 2014 (Revised March 2014)
Teaching Note

The LEGO Group: Envisioning Risks in Asia (A) and (B)

By: Anette Mikes

Keywords: Enterprise Risk Management; LEGO; LEGO Group; Scenario Planning; Risk Management

July–August 2023
Article

Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty

By: Ranjay Gulati

When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning for... View Details

Keywords: Crisis Management; Strategic Planning

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August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

2003
Other Unpublished Work

Smallpox and Small Risks

By: Greg Barron

12 Aug 2011
Working Paper Summaries

From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management

Keywords: by Anette Mikes

September 2021
Supplement

The Boston Beer Company (B): Growth and Uncertainty

By: Christina R. Wing and John Masko

The first three years of CEO Dave Burwick’s tenure were tumultuous for the Boston Beer Company. The company’s hard seltzer products continued to grow unexpectedly quickly, eclipsing the company’s legacy Samuel Adams beer products. Meanwhile, a polarizing political... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Leadership; Strategy; Growth Management; Food and Beverage Industry; Boston; United States

2024
Working Paper

Hidden Risk

By: Daniel Barth, Phillip Monin, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

Since 2013, large U.S. hedge fund advisers have been required to report risk exposures in their regulatory filings. Using these data, we first establish that managers’ perceptions of risk contain useful information that is not embedded in fund returns. Investor flows... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Investment Funds; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Communication Strategy; Financial Services Industry

December 2022
Article

Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics

By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald

In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely focused on established firms in mature... View Details

Keywords: Technological Change; Innovation; Qualitative Methods; New Categories; Entrepreneurship; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy

March 2017
Article

Artful Paltering: The Risks and Rewards of Using Truthful Statements to Mislead Others

By: Todd Rogers, Richard Zeckhauser, F. Gino, Michael I. Norton and Maurice E. Schweitzer

Paltering is the active use of truthful statements to convey a misleading impression. Across two pilot studies and six experiments, we identify paltering as a distinct form of deception. Paltering differs from lying by omission (the passive omission of relevant... View Details

Keywords: Deception; Lying; Paltering; Risk; Ethics; Negotiation Tactics

Research Summary

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details

2008
Working Paper

Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management

June 2023
Article

When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making

20 Oct 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Financing Risk and Bubbles of Innovation

Keywords: by Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf; Financial Services

January 2023
Supplement

Organizational Climate Transition Risk Model

By: George Serafeim and Benjamin Maletta

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Transition; Carbon Footprint; Business Analysis; Valuation; Climate Change

26 Feb 2008
Working Paper Summaries

Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

Keywords: by Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen; Financial Services

04 Feb 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Risk Preferences and Misconduct: Evidence from Politicians

Keywords: by Dylan Minor; Public Administration; Financial Services

Research Summary

Risk Management

The recent proliferation of risk management, as a management control system, and the continuing failures in risk oversight suggest that risk practices warrant further research and understanding.

My mission, ambition, and indeed passion is to document,... View Details

2021
Article

Internment as a Business Challenge: Political Risk Management and German Multinationals in Colonial India (1914–1947)

By: Christina Lubinski, Valeria Giacomin and Klara Schnitzer

Internment in so-called “enemy countries” was a frequent occurrence in the 20th century and created significant obstacles for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This article focuses on German MNEs in India and shows how they addressed the formidable challenge of the... View Details

Keywords: Internment; Political Risk; International Business; Multinational Firms and Management; Employees; War; History; Outcome or Result; India; Germany