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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(6,008)
- People (11)
- News (905)
- Research (4,150)
- Events (26)
- Multimedia (55)
- Faculty Publications (2,856)
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- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
- 2020
- Working Paper
Novel Risks
By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard and Anette Mikes
All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from... View Details
Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "Novel Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-094, March 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
- 21 May 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Business, Governments, and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin America Since 1970
Keywords: by Geoffrey Jones and Rachael Comunale
- August 2020
- Article
Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details
Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
- 2003
- Other Unpublished Work
Smallpox and Small Risks
By: Greg Barron
Barron, Greg. "Smallpox and Small Risks." 2003.
- January 2014 (Revised March 2014)
- Teaching Note
The LEGO Group: Envisioning Risks in Asia (A) and (B)
By: Anette Mikes
- Research Summary
Risk Management
The recent proliferation of risk management, as a management control system, and the continuing failures in risk oversight suggest that risk practices warrant further research and understanding.
My mission, ambition, and indeed passion is to document,... View Details
- 12 Aug 2011
- Working Paper Summaries
From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management
Keywords: by Anette Mikes
- 2024
- Working Paper
Hidden Risk
By: Daniel Barth, Phillip Monin, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
Since 2013, large U.S. hedge fund advisers have been required to report risk exposures in their regulatory filings. Using these data, we first establish that managers’ perceptions of risk contain useful information that is not embedded in fund returns. Investor flows... View Details
Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Investment Funds; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Communication Strategy; Financial Services Industry
Barth, Daniel, Phillip Monin, Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Hidden Risk." Working Paper, November 2024.
- December 2022
- Article
Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics
By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald
In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood
by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely
focused on established firms in mature... View Details
Keywords: Technological Change; Innovation; Qualitative Methods; New Categories; Entrepreneurship; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy
Gao, Cheng, and Rory McDonald. "Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics." Administrative Science Quarterly 67, no. 4 (December 2022): 915–967.
- July–August 2023
- Article
Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty
By: Ranjay Gulati
When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning for... View Details
Gulati, Ranjay. "Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 4 (July–August 2023): 36–42.
- 2008
- Working Paper
Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns
By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional... View Details
Malloy, Christopher J., Tobias J. Moskowitz, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. "Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-060, January 2008.
- September 2008
- Article
Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification
By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann
This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States
Hanson, Samuel G., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Til Schuermann. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification." Journal of Empirical Finance 15, no. 4 (September 2008): 583–612.
- March 2017
- Article
Artful Paltering: The Risks and Rewards of Using Truthful Statements to Mislead Others
By: Todd Rogers, Richard Zeckhauser, F. Gino, Michael I. Norton and Maurice E. Schweitzer
Paltering is the active use of truthful statements to convey a misleading impression. Across two pilot studies and six experiments, we identify paltering as a distinct form of deception. Paltering differs from lying by omission (the passive omission of relevant... View Details
Rogers, Todd, Richard Zeckhauser, F. Gino, Michael I. Norton, and Maurice E. Schweitzer. "Artful Paltering: The Risks and Rewards of Using Truthful Statements to Mislead Others." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 112, no. 3 (March 2017): 456–473.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
A confidential dataset with industry-level disaggregation of U.S. cross-border claims and liabilities, shows U.S. securities to be increasingly intermediated by tax-haven-financial-centers (THFC) and less regulated funds. These securities are risky, in... View Details
Keywords: Tax Havens; Financial Centers; Geography Of Flows; Profit Shifting; Tax Avoidance; Risk; Safe Assets; Hetergeneous Firms; Endogenous Entry; Endogenous Monitoring; Regulatory Arbitrage; Assets; Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Capital; Global Range
Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr. "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-099, March 2020. (Revised February 2021.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Renewing Knightian Uncertainty: A Pragmatic Prospectus and Demonstration
By: Amar Bhidé
Frank Knight distinguished between 'uncertainty' and 'risk' to specify the true nature of 'profit’, but his specification never caught on and I do not see realistic possibilities for renewing research in this direction. Using uncertainty to analyze the organization and... View Details
Bhidé, Amar. "Renewing Knightian Uncertainty: A Pragmatic Prospectus and Demonstration." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-129, June 2021.
- 20 Oct 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Financing Risk and Bubbles of Innovation
- December 2009
- Article
Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns
By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional variation in... View Details
Malloy, Christopher J., Tobias J. Moskowitz, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. "Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns." Journal of Finance 64, no. 6 (December 2009): 2427–2480. (Finalist for the 2010 Smith Breeden Prize for the best paper in the Journal of Finance.)
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details
- June 1992
- Article
The Strategic Management of Uncertainty
By: David J. Collis
Collis, David J. "The Strategic Management of Uncertainty." European Management Journal 10, no. 2 (June 1992): 125–135.