Publications

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

April 2006
Background Note

Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World: Module 1: Innovation and Uncertainty

By: Alan D. MacCormack

Describes the first module of a Harvard Business School 30-session elective course called Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World. The course helps students understand the challenges that uncertainty implies for innovation and how to overcome these challenges. The... View Details

Keywords: Design; Curriculum and Courses; Innovation and Management; Projects; Opportunities; Perspective

Educators

2003
Other Unpublished Work

Smallpox and Small Risks

By: Greg Barron

February 2024
Case

Nuwa Capital: Investing During Uncertainty

By: Paul A. Gompers and Fares Khrais

Nuwa Capital (Nuwa) was a venture capital firm based in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. The business was founded in 2020 by Khaled Talhouni and his partners Sarah Abu Risheh, and Stephanie Nour Prince (they were later joined by Nitin Reen... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Strategy; Decisions; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; Dubai; Bahrain

Educators

December 2022
Article

Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics

By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald

In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely focused on established firms in mature... View Details

Keywords: Technological Change; Innovation; Qualitative Methods; New Categories; Entrepreneurship; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy

Research Summary

Regulatory negotiations and risk communication

In the pharmaceutical industry a drugs benefits and risks are constantly being weighed by companies, regulators, physicians and drug consumers. While companies and regulators must make decisions based on population statistics about drug outcomes, physicians and drug... View Details

2007
Chapter

Utility and Risk Preferences

By: David E. Bell

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty

2008
Working Paper

Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management

2020
Working Paper

Novel Risks

By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard and Anette Mikes

All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Policy; Failure; Organizational Change and Adaptation

July–August 2023
Article

Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty

By: Ranjay Gulati

When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning for... View Details

Keywords: Crisis Management; Strategic Planning

Register to Read

21 May 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Business, Governments, and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin America Since 1970

Keywords: by Geoffrey Jones and Rachael Comunale

Research Summary

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details

Research Summary

Risk Management

The recent proliferation of risk management, as a management control system, and the continuing failures in risk oversight suggest that risk practices warrant further research and understanding.

My mission, ambition, and indeed passion is to document,... View Details

September 2021
Supplement

The Boston Beer Company (B): Growth and Uncertainty

By: Christina R. Wing and John Masko

The first three years of CEO Dave Burwick’s tenure were tumultuous for the Boston Beer Company. The company’s hard seltzer products continued to grow unexpectedly quickly, eclipsing the company’s legacy Samuel Adams beer products. Meanwhile, a polarizing political... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Leadership; Strategy; Growth Management; Food and Beverage Industry; Boston; United States

February 2007
Article

Reputation and Its Risks

By: Robert G. Eccles Jr., Scott C. Newquist and Roland Schatz

Keywords: Reputation; Risk and Uncertainty

June 2023
Article

When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making

January 2023
Supplement

Organizational Climate Transition Risk Model

By: George Serafeim and Benjamin Maletta

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Transition; Carbon Footprint; Business Analysis; Valuation; Climate Change