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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (1,701)
      • Faculty Publications  (231)

      Randomized Controlled ExperimentsRemove Randomized Controlled Experiments →

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      • Article

      Diversity and Team Performance in a Kenyan Organization

      By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Tavneet Suri
      We present the results from a field experiment on team diversity. Individuals working as door-to-door canvassers for a non-profit organization were randomly assigned a teammate, a supervisor, and a list of individuals to canvass. This created random variation within... View Details
      Keywords: Ethnic Diversity; Organizational Behavior; Labor Management; Groups and Teams; Diversity; Performance
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      Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Tavneet Suri. "Diversity and Team Performance in a Kenyan Organization." Art. 104332. Journal of Public Economics 197 (May 2021).
      • 2021
      • Article

      Fair Influence Maximization: A Welfare Optimization Approach

      By: Aida Rahmattalabi, Shahin Jabbari, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Phebe Vayanos, Max Izenberg, Ryan Brown, Eric Rice and Milind Tambe
      Several behavioral, social, and public health interventions, such as suicide/HIV prevention or community preparedness against natural disasters, leverage social network information to maximize outreach. Algorithmic influence maximization techniques have been proposed... View Details
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      Rahmattalabi, Aida, Shahin Jabbari, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Phebe Vayanos, Max Izenberg, Ryan Brown, Eric Rice, and Milind Tambe. "Fair Influence Maximization: A Welfare Optimization Approach." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 35th (2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Population Interference in Panel Experiments

      By: Iavor I Bojinov, Kevin Wu Han and Guillaume Basse
      The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit's outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in... View Details
      Keywords: Finite Population; Potential Outcomes; Dynamic Causal Effects; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Kevin Wu Han, and Guillaume Basse. "Population Interference in Panel Experiments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-100, March 2021.
      • February 2021
      • Tutorial

      Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

      By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein
      This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details
      Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning
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      Toffel, Michael, and Natalie Epstein. Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models. Harvard Business School Tutorial 621-706, February 2021. (Click here to access this tutorial.)
      • 2021
      • Article

      Fundraising for Stigmatized Groups: A Text Message Donation Experiment

      By: Katerina Linos, Laura Jakli and Melissa Carlson
      As government welfare programming contracts and NGOs increasingly assume core aid functions, they must address a long-standing challenge—that people in need often belong to stigmatized groups. To study other-regarding behavior, we fielded an experiment through a... View Details
      Keywords: Demographics; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Communication Strategy; Civil Society or Community; Non-Governmental Organizations; Welfare; Greece
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      Linos, Katerina, Laura Jakli, and Melissa Carlson. "Fundraising for Stigmatized Groups: A Text Message Donation Experiment." American Political Science Review 115, no. 1 (2021): 14–30.
      • February 2021
      • Article

      Trust and Disintermediation: Evidence from an Online Freelance Marketplace

      By: Grace Gu and Feng Zhu
      As an intermediary improves trust between the two sides of its market to facilitate matching and transactions, it faces an increased risk of disintermediation: with sufficient trust, the two sides may circumvent the intermediary to avoid the intermediary’s fees. In... View Details
      Keywords: Disintermediation; Intermediaries; Online Marketplace; Platform Strategy; Trust; Marketplace Matching; Digital Platforms
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      Gu, Grace, and Feng Zhu. "Trust and Disintermediation: Evidence from an Online Freelance Marketplace." Management Science 67, no. 2 (February 2021): 794–807.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Personalized Game Design for Improved User Retention and Monetization in Freemium Games

      By: Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Julian Runge
      One of the most crucial aspects and significant levers that gaming companies possess in designing digital games is setting the level of difficulty, which essentially regulates the user’s ability to progress within the game. This aspect is particularly significant in... View Details
      Keywords: Freemium; Retention/churn; Field Experiment; Field Experiments; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Mobile App; Mobile App Industry; Monetization; Monetization Strategy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Customers; Retention; Product Design; Strategy
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      Ascarza, Eva, Oded Netzer, and Julian Runge. "Personalized Game Design for Improved User Retention and Monetization in Freemium Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-062, November 2020. (Revised December 2023.)
      • November 2020
      • Article

      Casting Conference Calls

      By: Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
      We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on... View Details
      Keywords: Strategic Release; Firms; Conference Calls; Information; Strategy; Asset Pricing
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      Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Casting Conference Calls." Management Science 66, no. 11 (November 2020): 5015–5039. (Winner of the First Prize, Crowell Memorial Award for Best Paper in Quantitative Investments, PanAgora Asset Management, 2014.)
      • November 2020
      • Article

      Tackling Youth Unemployment: Evidence from a Labor Market Experiment in Uganda

      By: Livia Alfonsi, Oriana Bandiera, Vittorio Bassi, Robin Burgess, Imran Rasul, Munshi Sulaiman and Anna Vitali
      We design a labor market experiment to compare demand- and supply-side policies to tackle youth unemployment, a key issue in low-income countries. The experiment tracks 1700 workers and 1500 firms over four years to compare the effect of offering workers either... View Details
      Keywords: Employment; Training; Competency and Skills; Developing Countries and Economies
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      Alfonsi, Livia, Oriana Bandiera, Vittorio Bassi, Robin Burgess, Imran Rasul, Munshi Sulaiman, and Anna Vitali. "Tackling Youth Unemployment: Evidence from a Labor Market Experiment in Uganda." Econometrica 88, no. 6 (November 2020): 2369–2414.
      • 2020
      • Article

      Worry at Work: How Organizational Culture Promotes Anxiety

      By: Jeremy A. Yip, Emma E. Levine, Alison Wood Brooks and Maurice E. Schweitzer
      Organizational culture profoundly influences how employees think and behave. Established research suggests that the content, intensity, consensus, and fit of cultural norms act as a social control system for attitudes and behavior. We adopt the norms model of... View Details
      Keywords: Anxiety; Norms; Stress; Culture; Tightness-looseness; Curvilinear; Organizational Culture; Emotions; Performance
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      Yip, Jeremy A., Emma E. Levine, Alison Wood Brooks, and Maurice E. Schweitzer. "Worry at Work: How Organizational Culture Promotes Anxiety." Art. 100124. Research in Organizational Behavior 40 (2020).
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes

      By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
      Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we... View Details
      Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result
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      Yang, Jeremy, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon, and Sinan Aral. "Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes." Working Paper, October 2020.
      • September 2020 (Revised September 2021)
      • Supplement

      Student Success at Georgia State University (B)

      By: Michael W. Toffel, Robin Mendelson and Julia Kelley
      This is a supplement to the Student Success at Georgia State University (A) case. The (B) case includes the results of a randomized control trial that Georgia State conducted to test education technology start-up AdmitHub’s chatbot solution as a strategy for improving... View Details
      Keywords: Education; Higher Education; Learning; Curriculum and Courses; Demographics; Diversity; Ethnicity; Income; Race; Values and Beliefs; Leadership; Goals and Objectives; Measurement and Metrics; Operations; Organizations; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Culture; Outcome or Result; Performance; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Evaluation; Performance Improvement; Planning; Strategic Planning; Social Enterprise; Nonprofit Organizations; Social Issues; Wealth and Poverty; Equality and Inequality; Information Technology; Digital Platforms; Education Industry; Atlanta
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      Toffel, Michael W., Robin Mendelson, and Julia Kelley. "Student Success at Georgia State University (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 621-039, September 2020. (Revised September 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      (When) Does Appearance Matter? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Tarun Khanna, Christos A. Makridis and Subhradip Sarker
      While there is evidence about labor market discrimination based on race, religion, and gender, we know little about whether physical appearance leads to discrimination in labor market outcomes. We deploy a randomized experiment on 1,000 respondents in India between... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Coronavirus; Discrimination; Homophily; Labor Market Mobility; Limited Attention; Resumes; Personal Characteristics; Prejudice and Bias
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Tarun Khanna, Christos A. Makridis, and Subhradip Sarker. "(When) Does Appearance Matter? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-038, September 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments

      By: Iavor I Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi and Jinglong Zhao
      In switchback experiments, a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to a random treatment, measures its response, and repeats the procedure for several periods to determine which treatment leads to the best outcome. Although practitioners have widely adopted... View Details
      Keywords: Switchback Experiments; Design; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., David Simchi-Levi, and Jinglong Zhao. "Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-034, September 2020.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Do Physician Incentives Increase Patient Medication Adherence?

      By: Edward Kong, John Beshears, David Laibson, Brigitte Madrian, Kevin Volpp, George Loewenstein, Jonathan Kolstad and James J. Choi
      We conducted a randomized experiment (911 primary care practices and 8,935 nonadherent patients) to test the effect of paying physicians for increasing patient medication adherence in three drug classes: diabetes medication, antihypertensives, and statins. We measured... View Details
      Keywords: Health Economics; Medication Adherence; Physician Payment Incentives; Primary Care; Quality Improvement; Health Care and Treatment; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior
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      Kong, Edward, John Beshears, David Laibson, Brigitte Madrian, Kevin Volpp, George Loewenstein, Jonathan Kolstad, and James J. Choi. "Do Physician Incentives Increase Patient Medication Adherence?" Health Services Research 55, no. 4 (August 2020): 503–511.
      • Article

      The Importance of Being Causal

      By: Iavor I Bojinov, Albert Chen and Min Liu
      Causal inference is the study of how actions, interventions, or treatments affect outcomes of interest. The methods that have received the lion’s share of attention in the data science literature for establishing causation are variations of randomized experiments.... View Details
      Keywords: Causal Inference; Observational Studies; Cross-sectional Studies; Panel Studies; Interrupted Time-series; Instrumental Variables
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Albert Chen, and Min Liu. "The Importance of Being Causal." Harvard Data Science Review 2.3 (July 30, 2020).
      • Article

      Active World Model Learning with Progress Curiosity

      By: Kuno Kim, Megumi Sano, Julian De Freitas, Nick Haber and Daniel Yamins
      World models are self-supervised predictive models of how the world evolves. Humans learn world models by curiously exploring their environment, in the process acquiring compact abstractions of high bandwidth sensory inputs, the ability to plan across long temporal... View Details
      Keywords: World Models; Mathematical Methods
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      Kim, Kuno, Megumi Sano, Julian De Freitas, Nick Haber, and Daniel Yamins. "Active World Model Learning with Progress Curiosity." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 37th (2020).
      • Summer 2020
      • Article

      Want to Make Better Decisions? Start Experimenting

      By: Michael Luca and Max Bazerman
      Four lessons for using randomized controlled experiments to create value for your company and customers View Details
      Keywords: Randomized Controlled Experiments; Value Creation; Decision Making
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      Luca, Michael, and Max Bazerman. "Want to Make Better Decisions? Start Experimenting." MIT Sloan Management Review 61, no. 4 (Summer 2020).
      • May 2020
      • Article

      Negotiating a Better Future: How Interpersonal Skills Facilitate Inter-Generational Investment

      By: Nava Ashraf, Natalie Bau, Corinne Low and Kathleen McGinn
      Using a randomized control trial, we examine whether offering adolescent girls nonmaterial resources—specifically, negotiation skills—can improve educational outcomes in a low-income country. In so doing, we provide the first evidence on the effects of an intervention... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation; Competency and Skills; Training; Age; Gender; Education; Investment; Outcome or Result; Developing Countries and Economies
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      Ashraf, Nava, Natalie Bau, Corinne Low, and Kathleen McGinn. "Negotiating a Better Future: How Interpersonal Skills Facilitate Inter-Generational Investment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 2 (May 2020): 1095–1151.
      • April 2020
      • Article

      Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques

      By: Shawn A. Cole, A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein and Jeremy Tobacman
      Knowledge of consumer demand is important for firms, policy makers, and economists. One common tool for incentive-compatible demand elicitation, the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, has been widely used in laboratory settings but rarely evaluated for... View Details
      Keywords: Incentive-compatible Elicitation; Experimental Methods; Weather Insurance; Rainfall Insurance; Agricultural Extension; Demand and Consumers
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      Cole, Shawn A., A. Nilesh Fernando, Daniel Stein, and Jeremy Tobacman. "Field Comparisons of Incentive-Compatible Preference Elicitation Techniques." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 172 (April 2020): 33–56.
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