Publications

November 2010 (Revised May 2014)
Case

Dow's Bid for Rohm and Haas

By: Benjamin C. Esty and David Lane

This case analyzes Dow Chemical Company's proposed acquisition of Rohm and Haas in 2008. The $18.8 billion acquisition was part of Dow's strategic transformation from a slow-growth, low-margin, and cyclical producer of basic chemicals into a higher-growth,... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Financial Crisis; Capital Structure; Financial Condition; Financial Management; Contracts; Lawsuits and Litigation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Chemical Industry

23 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

Geradin Abstract—Many of the largest and most successful businesses today rely on providing services at no charge to at least a portion of their users. For consumers, it is easy to celebrate free service. At least in the short term, free services are often high... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

March 2019 (Revised May 2019)
Case

Growth Investing at Totem Point

By: Suraj Srinivasan, Charles C.Y. Wang and Jonah Goldberg

The case describes the investment of hedge fund, Totem Point Management in Analog Semiconductors (ADI) as a way to discuss forecasting and valuation in growth companies. In June 2016, hedge fund Totem Point invested in ADI at around $55 a share. In general, Totem Point... View Details

Keywords: Growth Investing; Investment; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation

22 Feb 2022
Research & Ideas

When Will the Hot Housing Market Finally Start to Cool?

only 910,000 homes on the market remained unsold nationwide, an all-time low. And Zillow, the online real estate sales platform, recently revised its 2022 forecast upward, predicting home prices will surge... View Details

Keywords: by Christine Pazzanese, Harvard Gazette

2022
Working Paper

The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation

By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen

We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged... View Details

Keywords: Intangibles; Market Valuation; Human Capital; Stocks; Financial Markets; Valuation

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August 1980 (Revised March 1994)
Case

Freemark Abbey Winery

Freemark Abbey must decide whether to harvest in view of the possibility of rain. Rain could damage the crop but delaying the harvest would be risky. On the other hand, rain could be beneficial and greatly increase the value of the resulting wine. This decision is... View Details

Keywords: Plant-Based Agribusiness; Forecasting and Prediction; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

August 2008
Article

Economic Links and Predictable Returns

By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini

This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details

Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

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03 Jan 2007
First Look

First Look: January 3, 2007

Working PapersCan Higher Prices Stimulate Product Use? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Zambia Authors:Nava Ashraf, James Berry, and Jesse M. Shapiro Abstract The pricing of health products in the... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

20 Mar 2017
Working Paper Summaries

Bubbles for Fama

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You

April 2023
Article

The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation

By: Ethan Rouen and Matthias Regier

We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between... View Details

Keywords: Intangibles; Valuation; Human Capital; Investment Return

Read Now

10 May 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Consumer Inertia and Market Power

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer

March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
Case

Hayman Capital Management

By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville

In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the... View Details

Keywords: Investment Management; Speculative Bubbles; Japan; Government Policy; Financial Management; Price Bubble; Credit; Financial Strategy; Behavioral Finance; Government and Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Services Industry; Japan

26 Aug 2009
Op-Ed

Where Cash for Clunkers Ran Off the Road

Chrysler once, have to do so again to the tune of $3 billion through the $3,500-$4,500 C4C incentives? This taxpayer money simply enabled the dealers to avoid having to offer discounts off sticker prices and to extract higher profit... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch; Auto

December 1989
Article

On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito

This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing

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13 May 2008
First Look

First Look: May 13, 2008

prices, the former implies convexity in the smaller of the two valuations, the latter linearity. In either case, the price is at least their average and hence spiteful. Download the paper:... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

December 2001 (Revised February 2008)
Case

Borealis

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Bjorn N. Jorgensen

When Borealis, a European producer of plastics, used a traditional, time-consuming budgeting process, the budget was quickly out of date in a competitive environment characterized by continually changing input and output prices and dynamic market conditions. This case... View Details

Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Budgets and Budgeting; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Governance Controls; Balanced Scorecard; Management Systems; Manufacturing Industry; Europe

08 Jul 2013
Research & Ideas

Everything Must Go: A Strategy for Store Liquidation

generally seen at the start of a liquidation event. With the length of a store liquidation event constrained by law and various lease agreements, making the most of the time a store is open and accurately forecasting demand is another... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Retail

January 1995
Background Note

A Note on Distribution of Venture Investments

By: Josh Lerner

Venture capitalists typically exit investments by distributing shares to investors. These transfers pose challenges for these investors. Predictions and evidence about the behavior of stock prices of firms around the time of these distributions are presented. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Stocks; Investment; Price