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    • All HBS Web  (323)
      • Faculty Publications  (107)

      Predictive AnalyticsRemove Predictive Analytics →

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      • October 2013
      • Article

      How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies

      By: Phanish Puranam, Ranjay Gulati and Sourav Bhattacharya
      While many theories of the firm seek to explain when firms make rather than buy, in practice, firms often make and buy the same input—they engage in plural sourcing. We argue that explaining the mix of external procurement and internal sourcing for the same input... View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Prejudice and Bias; Mathematical Methods
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      Puranam, Phanish, Ranjay Gulati, and Sourav Bhattacharya. "How Much to Make and How Much to Buy? An Analysis of Optimal Plural Sourcing Strategies." Strategic Management Journal 34, no. 10 (October 2013): 1145–1161.
      • April 2013
      • Case

      Managing with Analytics at Procter & Gamble

      By: Thomas H. Davenport, Marco Iansiti and Alain Serels
      Senior management at P&G has put a strong emphasis on using data to make "better, smarter, real-time business decisions." The Global Business Services (GBS) organization has developed tools, systems and processes to provide managers throughout P&G with direct access to... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics; Data Management; Forecasting; Shared Services; Procter & Gamble; Laundry Detergent; Information Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Mathematical Methods; Consumer Products Industry; North America
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      Davenport, Thomas H., Marco Iansiti, and Alain Serels. "Managing with Analytics at Procter & Gamble." Harvard Business School Case 613-045, April 2013.
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Online Word of Mouth and Product Review Disagreement

      By: Frank Nagle and Christoph Riedl
      Studies of online word of mouth have frequently posited―but never systematically conceptualized and explored―that the level of disagreement between existing product reviews can impact the volume and the valence of future reviews. In this study we develop a theoretical... View Details
      Keywords: Online Word Of Mouth; Online Communities; Viral Marketing; Online Product Reviews; Quality; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Social and Collaborative Networks; Digital Marketing; Analytics and Data Science
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      Nagle, Frank, and Christoph Riedl. "Online Word of Mouth and Product Review Disagreement." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-091, May 2013. (Revised May 2015, selected for AOM Best Paper Proceedings.)
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      ~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation

      By: Matthew Weinzierl
      Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Framework; Policy; Taxation; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Efficiency; United States
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      Weinzierl, Matthew. "~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-064, January 2012. (Revised August 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18045, August 2012)
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      Foundations of Organizational Trust: What Matters to Different Stakeholders?

      By: Michael Pirson and Deepak Malhotra
      Prior research on organizational trust has not rigorously examined the context specificity of trust nor distinguished between the potentially varying dimensions along which different stakeholders base their trust. As a result, dominant conceptualizations of... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Competency and Skills; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Framework; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Organizations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Identity; Perspective
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      Pirson, Michael, and Deepak Malhotra. "Foundations of Organizational Trust: What Matters to Different Stakeholders?" Organization Science 22, no. 4 (July–August 2011): 1087–1104.
      • 2011
      • Chapter

      Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

      By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley
      This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States
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      Antras, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies." In Costs and Benefits of Regional Economic Integration in Asia, edited by Robert J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Oxford University Press, 2011.
      • October 2010
      • Article

      Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture-in the sense of shared beliefs and values in order to study the effects of "culture clash" in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Organizational Culture; Economics; Information Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Mergers and Acquisitions; Framework; Satisfaction; Motivation and Incentives; Power and Influence; Communication
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity." Management Science 56, no. 10 (October 2010): 1718–1738.
      • September 2010
      • Article

      Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?

      By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
      Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details
      Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States
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      Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?" Management Science 56, no. 9 (September 2010): 1519–1533.
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand

      By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman
      To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Consumer Behavior; Service Delivery; Performance Expectations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Service Industry
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      Craig, Nathan, Nicole DeHoratius, and Ananth Raman. "The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand." Working Paper. (Revised January 2016.)
      • July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Profit; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 511-028, July 2010. (Revised December 2011.)
      • February 2010
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Marketers frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market and generate a sales... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Demand and Consumers; Size; Strategic Planning; Sales
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 510-081, February 2010.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture—in the sense of shared beliefs and values—in order to study the effects of "culture clash" in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Cost vs Benefits; Values and Beliefs; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Motivation and Incentives; Theory
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-003, July 2009.
      • Article

      How Well Do Social Ratings Actually Measure Corporate Social Responsibility?

      By: Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
      Ratings of corporations' environmental activities and capabilities influence billions of dollars of "socially responsible" investments as well as some consumers, activists, and potential employees. In one of the first studies to assess these ratings, we examine how... View Details
      Keywords: Governance Compliance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Measurement and Metrics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Performance Effectiveness; Natural Environment; Pollutants
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      Chatterji, Aaron K., David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel. "How Well Do Social Ratings Actually Measure Corporate Social Responsibility?" Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 18, no. 1 (Spring 2009): 125–169.
      • August 2008
      • Article

      Economic Links and Predictable Returns

      By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
      This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation​.)
      • October 2007
      • Article

      Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
      Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market." Journal of Finance 62, no. 5 (October 2007): 2061–2096. (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2007.)
      • May 2005
      • Exercise

      Forecasting the Adoption of E-books

      By: Elie Ofek
      Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption
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      Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
      • January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
      • Background Note

      Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process

      By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner
      Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Credit; Bonds; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
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      Abdelal, Rawi E., and Christopher Bruner. "Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process." Harvard Business School Background Note 705-027, January 2005. (Revised October 2005.)
      • October 2002
      • Exercise

      Luster Paint Corporation, The

      By: Janice H. Hammond
      Describes a marketing director about to launch a new process for demand forecasting. Provides data that allow students to do a multivariable regression analysis. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Management Practices and Processes; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
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      Hammond, Janice H. "Luster Paint Corporation, The." Harvard Business School Exercise 603-078, October 2002.
      • November 2001 (Revised August 2005)
      • Case

      BigEast Bank (A): Credit Card Approval

      By: Frances X. Frei and Dennis Campbell
      BigEast is considering adopting a relationship-centric view in its credit card approval process. This would shift the bank's current practice of analyzing applications based on the merits of a single product to one where the customer's existing relationship is... View Details
      Keywords: Customers; Forecasting and Prediction; Banks and Banking; Analytics and Data Science; Managerial Roles; Relationships; Adoption; Banking Industry
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      Frei, Frances X., and Dennis Campbell. "BigEast Bank (A): Credit Card Approval." Harvard Business School Case 602-098, November 2001. (Revised August 2005.)
      • October 1993 (Revised August 1996)
      • Background Note

      Forecasting with Regression Analysis

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Provides an example of regression in one of its most important roles. Relating probabilistic forecasts based on past data to decision analysis. View Details
      Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Forecasting with Regression Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 894-007, October 1993. (Revised August 1996.)
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