Judgment And Decision-making - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2022
Working Paper

Rethinking Explainability as a Dialogue: A Practitioner's Perspective

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Dylan Slack, Yuxin Chen, Chenhao Tan and Sameer Singh

As practitioners increasingly deploy machine learning models in critical domains such as healthcare, finance, and policy, it becomes vital to ensure that domain experts function effectively alongside these models. Explainability is one way to bridge the gap between... View Details

Keywords: Natural Language Conversations; AI and Machine Learning; Experience and Expertise; Interactive Communication; Business and Stakeholder Relations

December 2021
Case

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Assessing Risk in Carlos Ghosn's International Escape

By: Eugene F. Soltes, Grace Liu and Muneeb Ahmed

In 2018, automotive tycoon Carlos Ghosn was arrested in Japan on financial misreporting charges, followed later by charges of improper payments and misappropriation of funds. Over a year later, still awaiting trial, Ghosn organized his escape from house arrest in Tokyo... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Ethics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Law; Courts and Trials; Rights; Risk and Uncertainty; Auto Industry; Japan

Article

A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun

We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public... View Details

Keywords: Prescriptive Analytics; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Optimization; Observed Rank Utility Condition (OUR); Between-treatment Heterogeneity; Machine Learning; Decision Making; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

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November 2021 (Revised January 2022)
Case

Scott Tucker (A): Race to the Top

By: Aiyesha Dey and Amram Migdal

The case tells the story of the rise and fall of Scott Tucker, an entrepreneur, businessman, passionate race car driver, competitor, and owner of a professional racing team. From 1997 to 2012, Tucker built a nationwide network of payday lending businesses, becoming a... View Details

Keywords: Business Ventures; Crime and Corruption; Ethics; Fairness; Financing and Loans; Personal Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governance Compliance; Governance Controls; Financial Services Industry; United States

November 2021 (Revised January 2022)
Supplement

Scott Tucker (B): The Feds Catch Up

By: Aiyesha Dey and Amram Migdal

The case tells the story of the rise and fall of Scott Tucker, an entrepreneur, businessman, passionate race car driver, competitor, and owner of a professional racing team. From 1997 to 2012, Tucker built a nationwide network of payday lending businesses, becoming a... View Details

Keywords: Business Ventures; Crime and Corruption; Ethics; Fairness; Financing and Loans; Personal Finance; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Governance Compliance; Governance Controls; Financial Services Industry; United States

November 2021 (Revised December 2021)
Supplement

PittaRosso (B): Human and Machine Learning

By: Ayelet Israeli

This case supplements the "PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion" case, and provides major highlights on what happened at the company since the first case. View Details

November 2021
Article

A Salient Sugar Tax Decreases Sugary Drink Buying

By: Grant E. Donnelly, Paige Guge, Ryan Howell and Leslie John

Many governments have introduced sugary drink excise taxes to reduce purchasing and consumption of such drinks; however, they do not typically stipulate how such taxes should be communicated at point-of-purchase. Historical, field, and experimental data entailing over... View Details

Keywords: Decision-making; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Health; Policy; Taxation; Consumer Behavior; Decision Making

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Article

Drive Innovation with Better Decision-Making

By: Linda A. Hill, Emily Tedards and Taran Swan

Despite their embrace of agile methods, many firms striving to innovate are struggling to produce breakthrough ideas. A key culprit, according to the authors, is an outdated, inefficient approach to decision-making. Today’s discovery-driven innovation processes involve... View Details

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Organizational Change and Adaptation

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Article

Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship

By: Joe J. Gladstone, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg and Adam D. Galinsky

Financial hardship is an established source of shame. This research explores whether shame is also a driver and exacerbator of financial hardship. Six experimental, archival, and correlational studies (N = 9,110)—including data from customer bank account histories and... View Details

Keywords: Financial Hardship; Financial Decision-making; Shame; Guilt; Personal Finance; Financial Condition; Decision Making; Emotions

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October 15, 2021
Article

Virtuous Victims

By: Jillian J. Jordan and Maryam Kouchaki

How do people perceive the moral character of victims? We find, across a range of transgressions, that people frequently see victims of wrongdoing as more moral than non-victims who have behaved identically. Across 15 experiments (total n = 9,355), we document this... View Details

Keywords: Moral Judgment; Restorative Justice; Punishment; Compensation; Person Perception; Moral Sensibility; Judgments; Perception

October 2021 (Revised March 2022)
Supplement

PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion

By: Ayelet Israeli and Fabrizio Fantini

PittaRosso, a traditional Italian shoe retailer, is implementing an AI system to provide pricing and promotion recommendations. The system allows them to implement changes that would affect both the top of funnel and bottom of funnel activities for the company: once... View Details

October 2021 (Revised June 2022)
Case

PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion

By: Ayelet Israeli

PittaRosso, a traditional Italian shoe retailer, is implementing an AI system to provide pricing and promotion recommendations. The system allows them to implement changes that would affect both the top of funnel and bottom of funnel activities for the company: once... View Details

Article

Behavioral and Neural Representations en route to Intuitive Action Understanding

By: Leyla Tarhan, Julian De Freitas and Talia Konkle

When we observe another person’s actions, we process many kinds of information—from how their body moves to the intention behind their movements. What kinds of information underlie our intuitive understanding about how similar actions are to each other? To address this... View Details

Keywords: Action Perception; Intuitive Similarity; Multi-arrangement; fMRI; Representational Similarity Analysis; Behavior; Perception

August 2021
Article

Anger Damns the Innocent

By: Katherine DeCelles, Gabrielle Adams, Holly S. Howe and Leslie K. John

False accusations of wrongdoing are common and can have grave consequences. In six studies, we document a worrisome paradox in perceivers’ subjective judgments of a suspect’s guilt. Specifically, we find that laypeople (online panelists; N = 4,983) use suspects’ angry... View Details

Keywords: Morality; Accusations; Deception; Guilt; Affect; Emotions; Behavior; Perception; Judgments; Decision Making

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Article

The Harmonization of Lending Standards within Banks through Mandated Loan-Level Transparency

By: Jung Koo Kang, Maria Loumioti and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman

We explore whether the introduction of transparent reporting rules increases credit standard harmonization within a bank. We exploit the new loan-level reporting rules imposed on banks that borrow from the European Central Bank using repurchase agreements... View Details

Keywords: Transparency; External And Internal Reporting; Credit Term Harmonization; Regulatory Scrutiny; Banks and Banking; Credit; Financial Reporting; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Learning

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2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Oil and Gas Industry

By: Katie Panella, George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the oil and gas industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary product impact estimates of... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Pharmaceuticals Industry

By: Amanda Rischbieth, George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the pharmaceuticals industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of accessible... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Interactive Media and Services Industry

By: DG Park, George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the interactive media and services industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Telecommunications Industry

By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the telecommunications industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of network... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Water Utilities Industry

By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the water utilities industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of water... View Details

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