Publications

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18 Jun 2024
Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

shock to supplier prices—caused by international crises—impacts consumers using data from PriceStats, which scrapes retailer websites in real time. The authors tracked food and beverages, one of the biggest categories in the US Consumer... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking

June 2019
Case

The Shale Revolution: America's Energy Independence?

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Howaida Kamel

The shale revolution has upended oil and gas markets for nearly a decade and has positioned the U.S. to become a net energy exporter by 2020. Technological improvements pushed productivity forward which has had positive overall positive affects for the U.S. economy.... View Details

Keywords: Shale Oil; Shale Gas; LNG; Energy Policy; Drilling Technology; Energy; Trade; Economics; Macroeconomics; Policy; Energy Industry; Manufacturing Industry; United States; Middle East

22 Aug 2005
Research & Ideas

Restoring a Global Economy, 1950–1980

expropriations without compensation until the late 1960s—when a period of large-scale expropriation began—reflected the power and determination of the United States to protect foreign investments, but Western countries were unable to reestablish an View Details

Keywords: by Geoffrey Jones

March 2010
Article

Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880–1913

By: Michael D. Bordo, Alberto Cavallo and Christopher Meissner

We study the determinants and output effects of sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization from 1880 to 1913. Higher levels of exposure to foreign currency debt and large current account deficits associated with reliance on foreign... View Details

Keywords: Sudden Stops; Capital Flows; Economics; Macroeconomics; Economic Growth; Financial Crisis; Globalization; History

Read Now

05 Jun 2009
What Do You Think?

What Does Slower Economic Growth Really Mean?

assumptions about the usefulness of various types of production. The presumption is that macroeconomic growth translates into greater top line opportunities for individual organizations. With no improvement in productivity, that means a... View Details

Keywords: by Jim Heskett; Financial Services; Construction; Real Estate

20 Mar 2007
First Look

First Look: March 20, 2007

numerical tests, sales forecasts from our model are more accurate than forecasts from time-series models that ignore inventory and price as well as forecasts from financial analysts. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/07-056.pdf View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

February 2019 (Revised January 2022)
Case

The U.S. – China Trade War

By: Alberto Cavallo, Mariana Cal and Anne Laski

On December 1, 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Leader Xi Jinping faced each other across a dinner table during a G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina. After what Trump called an “amazing and productive meeting,” the two leaders announced a truce in the... View Details

Keywords: Trade War; Trump; Current Account; NAFTA; Balance Of Payments; Intellectual Property Protection; Trade; Macroeconomics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; International Relations; United States; China

November 2020 (Revised March 2023)
Teaching Note

Unrest in Chile

By: Vincent Pons, John Masko, Rafael Di Tella and William Mullins

In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; System Shocks; Chile; Latin America

April 2020 (Revised July 2020)
Case

Unrest in Chile

By: Vincent Pons, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb and Rafael Di Tella

In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; System Shocks; Chile; Latin America

April 2017 (Revised February 2020)
Case

Restructuring Ukraine

By: Kristin Mugford, Seema Amble and Tian Feng

In June 2015, Ukraine found itself struggling with a volatile and devalued currency, dramatically diminished foreign reserves, and a projected financing shortfall of $40 billion. Ukraine’s new government sought to return the nation to stability following political... View Details

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Restructuring; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Banks and Banking; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Bonds; Sovereign Finance; Capital Markets; Credit; Debt Securities; Financial Liquidity; Financial Markets; Government and Politics; Ukraine

16 Aug 2016
First Look

August 16, 2016

Among those who pursued residency training, the most common specialties were internal medicine (39.3%), emergency medicine (10.4%), orthopedic surgery (9.2%), and general surgery (8.6%). Physician-MBAs trained in View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

19 May 2009
First Look

First Look: May 19, 2009

California Public Employees' Retirement System (CaIPERS)—the largest public pension fund in the U.S.—had adopted a new principles-based approach to investing in emerging market equities in November 2007. Previously, CalPERS internal and... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

28 Jul 2015
First Look

First Look: July 28, 2015

Capital fluctuations of the largest five sellers account for over 10% of the time-series variation in spread changes, a significant amount given that observable firm and macroeconomic factors account for less than 17% of variation during... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

22 Jun 2010
First Look

First Look: June 22

integration and degree of structural differentiation together affect a firm's ability to explore and exploit. We suggest that the senior team's ability to attend to and deal with contradictory internal architectures is a crucial... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

20 Oct 2010
Op-Ed

Export Competitiveness: Reversing the Logic

remains a significant amount of empirical evidence that trade remains much stronger within countries than across borders (Mayer/Zignago, 2005), even when traditional tariff and non-tariff-barriers have been removed like in the EU's View Details

Keywords: by Christian Ketels

07 Jan 2019
Research & Ideas

The Better Way to Forecast the Future

Real-Time Data and Machine Learning, that puts many of these principles into practice. That paper, coauthored with Xiaojia Guo and Bert De Reyck of the University College London School of Management, details a project with Heathrow Airport using probabilities to... View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Air Transportation; Transportation

May 2018 (Revised October 2018)
Case

Argentina Power—Don't Cry for Me Argentina

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Sayiddah Fatima McCree

In 2016, Bruce Wayne, Managing Director of Energy Finance Corporation (“EFC”), was refining the Investment/Credit Committee materials for the development of up to 10 power generating plants in Argentina. As a subsidiary of the much larger International Conglomerate... View Details

Keywords: Cross Border; Energy Markets; Infrastructure Finance; Infrastructure Development; Business Subsidiaries; Business Cycles; Macroeconomics; Energy Generation; International Finance; Project Finance; Government and Politics; Demand and Consumers; Infrastructure; Utilities Industry; Energy Industry; Financial Services Industry; Argentina; Latin America