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Publications

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

      By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
      We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and... View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022. (R&R Management Science.)
      • 2022
      • Article

      The Pricing and Ownership of U.S. Green Bonds

      By: Malcolm Baker, Daniel Bergstresser, George Serafeim and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We study green bonds, which are bonds whose proceeds are used for environmentally sensitive purposes. After an overview of the U.S. corporate and municipal green bonds markets, we study pricing and ownership patterns using a simple framework that incorporates assets... View Details
      Keywords: Green Bond; Pricing; Climate Finance; ESG; SRI; Sustainable; Municipal; Bonds; Environmental Sustainability; Financial Markets; Price; Ownership; United States
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      Baker, Malcolm, Daniel Bergstresser, George Serafeim, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Pricing and Ownership of U.S. Green Bonds." Annual Review of Financial Economics 14 (2022): 415–437.
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Sustainable Finance at Itau BBA

      By: George Serafeim, Maria Loumioti and Benjamin Maletta
      As of August 2022, the Itau BBA had structured dozens of sustainability linked bonds, which made future interest payments a function of the borrower meeting a target for a sustainability metric, and had solidified its reputation as a pioneer of sustainable finance in... View Details
      Keywords: Sustainable Finance; Corporate Social Responsibility; Environmental Sustainability; Growth Strategy; Debt Contracting; Performance Metrics; Risk Assessment; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Financial Instruments; Risk Management; Debt Securities; Measurement and Metrics; Banking Industry; Pulp and Paper Industry; Latin America
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      Serafeim, George, Maria Loumioti, and Benjamin Maletta. "Sustainable Finance at Itau BBA." Harvard Business School Case 123-036, October 2022.
      • October 2022 (Revised January 2025)
      • Case

      Founders First Capital Partners: An Approach to Capital Access Equity

      By: Brian Trelstad, Mel Martin and Amy Klopfenstein
      In June 2021, Kim T. Folsom, the founder and CEO of revenue-based financing firm Founders First Capital Partners (FFCP), must decide whether to issue another loan to OnShore Technology Group, an up-and-coming software validation company. FFCP provided revenue-based... View Details
      Keywords: Finance; Financial Instruments; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Revenue; Capital; Financial Services Industry; North and Central America; United States
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      Trelstad, Brian, Mel Martin, and Amy Klopfenstein. "Founders First Capital Partners: An Approach to Capital Access Equity." Harvard Business School Case 323-013, October 2022. (Revised January 2025.)
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Star Magnolia Capital: Becoming Experts at Finding Experts

      By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, River Ewing and Grace Headinger
      Shinya Deguchi, Founder and Managing Partner of Star Magnolia Capital, a Shanghai-based multi-family office (MFO), considered how to convince a new prospective family that the MFO’s endowment model approach would best suit their needs. In recent decades, there has been... View Details
      Keywords: China; Asia; Family Office; Shanghai; Financial Industry; Asset Management; Financial Instruments; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Human Capital; Family Business; Financial Services Industry; China; Shanghai
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      Cohen, Lauren, Hao Gao, River Ewing, and Grace Headinger. "Star Magnolia Capital: Becoming Experts at Finding Experts." Harvard Business School Case 223-038, October 2022.
      • October–December 2022
      • Article

      Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

      By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
      Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
      • September 2022 (Revised June 2025)
      • Case

      York Capital CLOs and WorldStrides International

      By: Victoria Ivashina and William Vrattos
      The case follows the debt restructuring of WorldStrides International, a travel program provider in the education market, after the onset of COVID-19. The pandemic severely impacted the travel industry, creating challenges for many companies like WorldStrides, which... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Debt Restructuring; CLO; Compliance; Debt Securities; Financing and Loans; Decision Making; Travel Industry; Education Industry
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      Ivashina, Victoria, and William Vrattos. "York Capital CLOs and WorldStrides International." Harvard Business School Case 223-034, September 2022. (Revised June 2025.)
      • September 2022 (Revised January 2023)
      • Case

      Bear to Bull: An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix

      By: Aiyesha Dey, Joseph Pacelli, Jennifer G. Lawson and Tom Quinn
      Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said “hell freezing over” was more likely than him upgrading the “sell” rating he had maintained on movie and television streaming giant Netflix since 2011, despite meteoric subscriber and share price growth. In 2022, however,... View Details
      Keywords: Accounting; Asset Pricing; Cash Flow; Investment; Stocks; Equity; Analysis; Attitudes; Financial Services Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States
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      Dey, Aiyesha, Joseph Pacelli, Jennifer G. Lawson, and Tom Quinn. "Bear to Bull: An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix." Harvard Business School Case 123-001, September 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • August 2022 (Revised October 2023)
      • Case

      Bajaj Finance: Building an Omnipresent Financial Services Firm

      By: Das Narayandas and Rachna Tahilyani
      Bajaj Finance, India’s largest consumer finance firm with $20.9 billion of assets across 50.5 million customers, is on a journey to transform itself from a traditional firm that sells loans and other financial products through brick-and-mortar outlets to an omnipresent... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions; Transformation; Financial Instruments; Customer Satisfaction; Internet and the Web; Customer Focus and Relationships; India
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      Narayandas, Das, and Rachna Tahilyani. "Bajaj Finance: Building an Omnipresent Financial Services Firm." Harvard Business School Case 523-040, August 2022. (Revised October 2023.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period.... View Details
      Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • August, 2022
      • Article

      Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the United States

      By: Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
      How do social group boundaries evolve? Does the appearance of a new outgroup change the ingroup's perceptions of other outgroups? We introduce a conceptual framework of context-dependent categorization, in which exposure to one minority leads to recategorization of... View Details
      Keywords: In-group-out-group Relations; Ingroup-outgroup Relations; Immigration; Race; Relationships; United States
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      Fouka, Vasiliki, and Marco Tabellini. "Changing Ingroup Boundaries: The Effect of Immigration on Race Relations in the United States." American Political Science Review 116, no. 3 (August, 2022): 968–984. (Featured in the Boston Globe, Washington Post, and HBS Working Knowledge.)
      • 2022
      • Article

      Regulatory Treatment of Changes in Fair Value and the Composition of Banks' Investment Portfolios

      By: Michael Iselin, Jung Koo Kang and Joshua Madsen
      In their implementation of Basel III, U.S. bank regulators are again including changes in the fair value of available-for-sale (AFS) debt securities in Tier 1 capital, but only for the largest U.S. banks. This paper investigates a potential impact of expanding this... View Details
      Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; SFAS 115; Basel III; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banks and Banking; Debt Securities; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Portfolio; Decision Making; Banking Industry; United States
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      Iselin, Michael, Jung Koo Kang, and Joshua Madsen. "Regulatory Treatment of Changes in Fair Value and the Composition of Banks' Investment Portfolios." Journal of Financial Reporting 7, no. 1 (2022): 123–143.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      On the Estimation of Demand-Based Asset Pricing Models

      By: Philippe van der Beck
      A growing literature uses portfolio holdings data to quantify the impact of investor demand on equilibrium prices via counterfactual experiments. The key parameter in relating demand and equilibrium prices is investors’ elasticity of demand with respect to the price.... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Institutional Investing; Financial Instruments
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      van der Beck, Philippe. "On the Estimation of Demand-Based Asset Pricing Models." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 22-67, May 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Case

      Mastercard: Creating a World Beyond Cash

      By: Sunil Gupta, Linda A. Hill, Julia Kelley and Emily Tedards
      In late 2021, Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach and Chairman and former CEO Ajaypal “Ajay” Banga considered how Mastercard could best position itself for continued success in the years to come. Since Mastercard’s initial public offering in 2006, the company had grown and... View Details
      Keywords: Technological Innovation; Leadership; Leading Change; Organizational Culture; Business Strategy; Change; Change Management; Money; Cash; Credit; Financial Institutions; Banks and Banking; Central Banking; Financial Instruments; Credit Cards; Financial Markets; Globalization; Innovation and Invention; Innovation and Management; Innovation Strategy; Leadership Style; Competitive Advantage; Corporate Strategy; Diversification; Information Technology; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; North and Central America; United States; New York (state, US)
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      Gupta, Sunil, Linda A. Hill, Julia Kelley, and Emily Tedards. "Mastercard: Creating a World Beyond Cash." Harvard Business School Case 522-001, April 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Supplement

      PG&E and the First Climate Change Bankruptcy

      By: Stuart C. Gilson
      Keywords: Chapter 11; Utilities; Liabilities; Restructuring; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Debt Securities; Legal Liability; Climate Change; Utilities Industry; United States
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      Gilson, Stuart C. "PG&E and the First Climate Change Bankruptcy." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 222-714, April 2022.
      • April 2022 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      Mastercard Labs (A)

      By: Linda A. Hill, Sunil Gupta, Emily Tedards and Julia Kelley
      When Ajaypal (Ajay) Banga became the CEO of Mastercard in 2010, he shifted the company’s competitive focus from card networks to cash itself. Mastercard’s new vision of a “World Beyond Cash” distilled into a three-pronged framework: Grow the core business, Diversify... View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Behavior; Culture; Culture Change; Organizational Adaptation; Organizational Effectiveness; Alignment; Leadership; Leadership Development; Innovation; Innovation Ecosystems; Ecosystem; Diversity; Collaboration; Co-creation; Learning Organizations; Empowerment; Globalization; Agility; Prototype; Experiment; Partnerships; Operating Model; Risk Management; Metrics; Payments; Financial Inclusion; Financial Industry; Ambidexterity; Corporate Innovation; Innovation Lab; Digital Transformation; Digital Strategy; Credit Cards; Innovation Leadership; Organizational Culture
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      Hill, Linda A., Sunil Gupta, Emily Tedards, and Julia Kelley. "Mastercard Labs (A)." Harvard Business School Case 422-080, April 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
      • April 2022 (Revised April 2023)
      • Case

      Highland Park Wood Co. (Abridged)

      By: David E. Bell
      A major home builder wishes to purchase lumber (Southern pine). The builder wants delivery in six months but prefers to lock-in the price near current rates. The lumber wholesaler must decide on a pricing and sourcing strategy. Examples include: 1) buy & hold, 2) wait... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Goods and Commodities; Futures and Commodity Futures; Price; Forest Products Industry; Construction Industry
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      Bell, David E. "Highland Park Wood Co. (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 122-098, April 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists

      By: Paul A. Gompers and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
      In this paper we explore whether or not the experience as a founder of a venture capital-backed startup influences the performance of founders who become venture capitalists (VCs). We find that nearly 7% of VCs were previously founders of a venture-backed startup.... View Details
      Keywords: Founders; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance; Personal Development and Career; Success
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      Gompers, Paul A., and Vladimir Mukharlyamov. "Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29907, April 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Stock Market Stimulus

      By: Robin Greenwood, Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We study the stock market effects of the arrival of the three rounds of “stimulus checks” to U.S. taxpayers and the single round of direct payments to Hong Kong citizens. The first two rounds of U.S. checks appear to have increased retail buying and share prices of... View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market; COVID-19 Pandemic; Fiscal Stimulus; Stimulus Payments; Impact; Stocks; System Shocks; Price; Spending; United States; Hong Kong; China
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      Greenwood, Robin, Toomas Laarits, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Stock Market Stimulus." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29827, March 2022. (Revised November 2022.)
      • February 2022 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code

      By: Kristin Mugford, William Vrattos and Radhika Kak
      In 2016, India passed a new bankruptcy law (IBC) to counter a brewing bank crisis and increased corporate distress. Homebuilder Jaypee Infratech, one of India largest distressed companies (the “dirty dozen”) began restructuring under the IBC in 2017. Two years later,... View Details
      Keywords: Restructuring; Decisions; Judgments; Voting; Developing Countries and Economies; Financial Crisis; Public Sector; Asset Pricing; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Credit; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Debt Securities; Bonds; Investment Return; Price; Government Legislation; Laws and Statutes; Bids and Bidding; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Real Estate Industry; India; Delhi
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      Mugford, Kristin, William Vrattos, and Radhika Kak. "Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code." Harvard Business School Case 222-071, February 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
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