Publications

2024
Working Paper

Fiscal Policy under Convex Supply Curves

By: Shlok Goyal, Avi Lipton and Borui Niklas Zhu

Recent empirical evidence suggests that supply curves are convex. Supply curve convexity is at odds with conventional Phillips curves, which rely on an infinitely elastic underlying supply curve. This paper explores the effect of supply curve convexity on the... View Details

Keywords: Fiscal Stimulus; Fiscal Policy; Inflation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Policy; Mathematical Methods; United States

SSRN

June 1988 (Revised July 1989)
Case

John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Co.: The Inflation Strategy Task Force (A)

1980 was a critical time for John Hancock with high inflation, high interest rates, increased competition, and the desertion of policy holders seeking new investment opportunities. A new lower level (of vice presidents) task force was set up by the executive committee... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Planning; Insurance; Inflation and Deflation; Insurance Industry; United States

2023
Working Paper

Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes

By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter

We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment

SSRN

21 Jul 2022
News

I Think Inflation Is Going to Be with Us a Long Time, Says Harvard’s Bill George

August 2020
Article

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,... View Details

Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics

Find at Harvard

Article

How Beliefs about Self-creation Inflate Value in the Human Brain

By: Raphael Koster, Tali Sharot, Rachel Yuan, Benedetto De Martino, Michael I. Norton and Raymond J. Dolan

Humans have a tendency to overvalue their own ideas and creations. Understanding how these errors in judgement emerge is important for explaining suboptimal decisions, as when individuals and groups choose self-created alternatives over superior or equal ones. We show... View Details

Keywords: fMRI; Amygdala; Hippocampus; Medial Temporal Lobe; Caudate Nucleus; Values and Beliefs

24 Mar 2021
News

Inflation Is Harder to Measure After a Year of Pandemic Spending

November 2019
Case

Floating the Exchange Rate: In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream

By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong

In the decades following 2005, China faced significant financial challenges. Inflation spiraled upwards and China’s economy stagnated in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. The country’s leaders took an interventionist approach to weather the storm, controlling... View Details

Keywords: Exchange Rate; Inflation; Debt; Currency Exchange Rate; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; China

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

SSRN

10 Oct 2019
News

Technology is making inflation statistics an unreliable guide to the economy

June 1988
Case

John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Co.: The Inflation Strategy Task Force (B)

Describes what happened after the apparent eruption and traumas within the task force described in the (A) case. The task force moved from being "the very worst committee" according to one member to becoming "the very best." Tries to explain how and why. Also describes... View Details

Keywords: Business Processes; Insurance Industry

May 2013
Supplement

Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (C)

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

Assuming office in December 2012, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was determined to revive Japan's stagnating economy through an ambitious plan known as 'Abenomics.' Under the guidance of the newly appointed governor of the central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan... View Details

Keywords: Japan; Inflation Targeting; Inflation; Abenomics; Monetary Policy; Stimulus; Quantitative Easing; Government Bonds; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Money; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Japan

14 Jun 2022
News

What’s the Better Inflation Strategy, Raising Prices Little by Little or All at Once?

September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
Case

The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White

After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details

17 Nov 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets

Keywords: by Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger

February 2013
Teaching Note

Australia: Commodities and Competitiveness (TN)

By: Laura Alfaro, Richard H.K. Vietor and Hilary White

For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details

Keywords: Competitiveness; Inflation; Mining; Current Account; Exchange Rates; Trade; Capital Flows; Commodities; Environment; Carbon Tax; Goods and Commodities; Australia

18 May 2010
News

Brands and the Dark Side of Social Media

January 2004 (Revised August 2004)
Supplement

Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (B)

By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton

In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Financial Instruments; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Markets; Government and Politics; Financial Institutions; Innovation and Invention; United States

January 2004 (Revised June 2004)
Case

Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (A)

By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton

In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Debt Securities; Risk Management; Bonds; Investment Portfolio; Capital Markets; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Innovation and Invention; United States